I love debating baseball with the good people on social media about this topic, so much so that I am here cranking out this article to kickstart my week. The amount of people who believe this award should go to Mariners slugger Cal Raleigh is truly sickening. Apparently, we are watching two different sports, or our biases are getting the best of us. I get it, nobody likes the Yankees. They are one of the most hated teams in all of sports. But to think that what Aaron Judge has done this season is not MVP worthy is delusional.
It is his award. The race is a wrap. Barring another injury, it belongs to him.
Cal Raleigh's Numbers
I am fully aware of the physical demand of the catcher position, but if you go back and look at previous catchers who have won MVP, none of them had a batting average this low. Yes, Raleigh will likely finish with more home runs than most of those past winners, but when over 40% of his hits since June have been home runs, that tells you all you need to know. The long ball is the only thing he has provided.
Let us go deeper, as for his responsibilities behind the plate, part of being a catcher is managing the pitching staff. Since June, Seattle ranks 20th in WAR and ERA. Since July, his strikeout rate is 36%. The league average is 23%.
The Mariners keep winning, but not because of him. Since the All-Star break, Seattle is 19-16 while Raleigh has posted a .216 average, .286 OBP, and .771 OPS. During that stretch, he recorded 29 hits and struck out 48 times.
My biggest gripe with this whole "MVP race" is how people refuse to accept that just because it is a monster season for the switch-hitting catcher, it does not mean he deserves the award. Outside of home runs, what number does Raleigh have over Judge?
Aaron Judge's Numbers
Judge currently leads Major League Baseball in batting average and OPS. Before his July injury, he also led the league in OBP and intentional walks. The Yankees slugger tops the AL in slugging, runs, and walks. He has put together one of the most impressive offensive seasons we have ever seen.
Some argue that his numbers are inflated because half his games are played in the Bronx. One, lazy take. Two, his road splits are very impressive. On the road this season, Judge owns a .310 average, .449 OBP, .689 SLG, and 1.138 OPS. He has also collected more hits, home runs, and RBIs away from Yankee Stadium.
Compared head-to-head, Judge's OBP is 83 points higher than Raleigh, his average is 77 points higher, and his OPS is 163 points higher. Since July, Judge's strikeout rate is 25%—11% lower than Raleigh—while carrying a Yankees team that would not be in postseason contention without him.
'Voter Fatigue'
We hear it every year—"voter fatigue." In a season where both leagues have been relatively quiet, there are two clear-cut MVPs, and they are the same names as last year.
Who Has Value?
Some books have Judge priced at $1.30. I am not willing to pay that, but it is still a strong number. I have already accepted that my longshot Skubal 120/1 MVP ticket is dead. Once the Angels shelled him, I knew it was finished, which is fine—it was a longshot play.
As for Raleigh, taking him under 2/1 is not worth it. It was not even worth considering when he sat at 20/1 before his monster weekend at Wrigley.
Aaron Judge is having an all-time season and is the definition of value to his team. Cal Raleigh may be having the best year of his career, but there is no world where it stacks up to what Judge has done.
