2026 MLB Home Run Derby — Odds & Best Bets
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Mon Jul 13, 2026, 5:00 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The Midsummer Classic is finally here and with it comes everyone's favorite event; the Home Run Derby.
This year the rules have changed and we've got a ton of props on the board that have peaked my interest. Let's breakdown the competition, then get straight into my favorite bets in the Derby.
Derby Rules
This year's Home Run Derby is will do away with two main things, the running clock and the bonus round. This year each hitter will get 20 swings of the bat in Round 1, 15 swings in Round 2 and 15 swings in Round 3 if they make it that far.
With no more bonus round this year, the MLB's introduced the 'last swing rule'. This means if a hitter hits a home run on his 'last swing', he'll be allowed to continue as long as he continues to hit home runs. Basically, you can't end on a home run.
Last rule change for this year is the tournament format is now only in Rounds 2 and 3. In Round 1, all eight hitters will get 20 swings and the four hitter with the most home runs hit move to Round 2.
Ties will be decided by longest home run and if still tied, we'll see a 3-swing, 'swing-off' between the two players.
In Round 2 we'll see the top four hitters re-seed according to home runs hit in the first round and all four hitters will be placed in two 1-on-1 matchups to decide the finalists. Final round is 15 swings and most home runs takes home the trophy.
This is the first time since 2015 the Derby will move away from a timed clock and back to a swing format; it's going to make all the difference in how we handicap this competition. Every swing matters.
This format favors hitters that create elite contact and things like BRL/HH matter that much more. Hitters that can create big contact are the ones I'm locked in on and there's a few I've got on my mind.
Let's jump right into it.
Home Run Derby Winner
Junior Caminero (+400) | Lucky Rebel
Last year's runner up and (hopefully) this year's winner; Junior Caminero. At just 23-years old, Caminero is quickly becoming one of the best hitters in the MLB and his numbers this year only back that up.
Caminero's hit 28 home runs this year, he's got a .558 SLG, 17% BRL and 52% HH. He's got an average exit velocity of 93.2 mph and he's hit 11 home runs in his last 15 games. Caminero's in perfect form coming into the competition and finished last year as the runner up.
Junior will once again go to Tomas Francisco from the Rays coaching staff to throwing bating practice tonight. Caminero's got history with Francisco after last year's competition and Francisco was also on the mound for Randy Arozarena's runner-up finish in 2023.
Munetaka Murakami (+700) | Lucky Rebel
This one's a little more on the long shot side, but the Southside Samurai is someone I've had my mind on all day. Munetaka Murakami is in his rookie year and has just been incredible this year.
Murakami's hit 20 home runs this year in just 60 games, he's got a 20% BRL and 60% HH with an average exit velocity of 94.4 mph. He's been great this year and if not for six weeks on the IL, his numbers would leap off the page.
The other reason I love Murakami tonight is the fact this won't be his first home run competition. It'll be his first time in the MLB's Home Run Derby, but he's finished as the runner-up in Japans' version of the competition.
In fact, Murakami was a two time MVP in the NBP, he was the youngest Triple-Crown Winner and had a record 56 home runs in 2022 for any Japanese born player. He's an incredible hitter and it's translated perfectly so far in the MLB.
Lastly, Murakami's a lefty. Citizen's Bank Park's right field corner is just 329-feet and has historically been favorable to lefty pull hitters. This will be Murakami's first time hitting in this park and I can't wait to see what he's got in store for us.
First Round Combined Home Runs
Junior Caminero, Kyle Schwarber, Munetaka Murakami and Willson Contreras 44+ Combined Home Runs (+300)
Despite the competition now including a limited amount of swings, I love the value on this line. Three of the four hitters are guys I think make it to Round 2 and all three I think have a chance to win this competition.
Murakami, Caminero and Schwarber have all participated in home run derbies prior to today and I think all three are hungry for their first win.
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