NFL Retirement Odds: 10 Veterans Facing Career Decisions
Written by: Jonathan Rodriguez
Published: Fri Sep 11, 2026, 9:00 am ET
Read Time: 8 minutes
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BetOnline's latest NFL retirement odds highlight 10 veterans who could leave the league after the 2026 season. Aaron Rodgers stands as the biggest favorite, with Lane Johnson and Travis Kelce also drawing strong retirement odds.
The market features players at different stages of their careers. Some have already hinted that retirement could be close, while others remain committed to playing.
As the 2026 campaign unfolds, injuries, performance and personal decisions could all influence their futures.
NFL Retirement Odds Put Rodgers and Johnson at the Front
Rodgers and Johnson headline the market, with both veterans having publicly addressed the possibility of retirement. Kelce also carries significant odds, while the other seven players offer longer-priced alternatives.
The individual situations provide more context behind where each player currently stands.
Aaron Rodgers (-500): The Farewell Tour is Official | BetOnline
Aaron Rodgers enters the season with the clearest retirement outlook among the 10 players. The Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback has publicly confirmed that 2026 will be his final NFL season.
Rodgers made that declaration during offseason activities after initially expressing uncertainty about returning. He now appears committed to ending his Hall of Fame career after the campaign.
His decision makes the -500 retirement price the shortest on the board. The market implies an 83% probability that Rodgers will retire before the 2027 season.
Lane Johnson (-300): Heavyweight Tackle Weighs His Exit | BetOnline
Lane Johnson also has strong reasons behind his -300 retirement odds. The Philadelphia Eagles right tackle recently said 2026 will "potentially, probably" be his final season.
Johnson cited his growing children and aging parents as major factors. However, he still believes he can perform at an elite level and wants to enjoy the season.
The six-time Pro Bowler therefore carries a 75% implied retirement probability.
Travis Kelce (-200): Is This the Ultimate 'Last Dance'? | BetOnline
Travis Kelce has the third-highest retirement probability at 67%. BetOnline lists Yes at -200, despite Kelce returning for his 14th season.
Kelce considered retirement after Kansas City's disappointing 2025 campaign. However, he ultimately signed a one-year deal and returned for 2026.
Recent speculation has continued, with people close to Kelce calling 2026 a potential "last dance." Still, Kelce has not confirmed that this will be his final season.
Aaron Donald (+150): The Comeback Kid's Final Encore? | BetOnline
Aaron Donald presents the most unusual case on the list. He retired following the 2023 season, but recently returned to the Los Angeles Rams.
Donald signed a one-year, $20 million contract after spending more than two years away. He joined a defense that also features reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett.
His +150 retirement odds imply a 40% probability. However, the veteran's comeback means the market now asks whether he will retire again after 2026.
Matthew Stafford (+250): Reaping MVP Glory Year-by-Year | BetOnline
Matthew Stafford enters his 18th NFL season after winning the 2025 MVP award. The Rams quarterback also led the league with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns last season.
Stafford has repeatedly approached his future on a year-to-year basis. He signed a one-year, $55 million contract for 2026, maintaining that flexibility.
His +250 retirement price implies a 29% probability. However, his difficult season opener could add another storyline to an already uncertain future.
Stafford completed 15 of 25 passes for 155 yards during Los Angeles' 27-7 loss to San Francisco.
Kirk Cousins (+300): Holding Off the Future in Vegas | BetOnline
Kirk Cousins enters his 15th NFL season with the Las Vegas Raiders. He won the starting quarterback job over rookie No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza.
Head coach Klint Kubiak named Cousins the starter after praising his offseason and training-camp performance.
That development gives Cousins a clear opportunity to extend his career. Nevertheless, the Raiders' investment in Mendoza could create an intriguing transition point.
Cousins' +300 retirement odds imply a 25% probability.
Mike Evans (+300): Veteran Firepower in a New System | BetOnline
Mike Evans also carries +300 retirement odds. The veteran receiver moved to San Francisco after spending his entire previous NFL career with Tampa Bay.
Evans signed a three-year contract with the 49ers and entered 2026 as their veteran receiving centerpiece.
His age remains relevant, especially after 49ers general manager John Lynch acknowledged the challenges of managing an aging core.
Evans was also dealing with a quad injury during preseason preparations. However, he returned to action and scored a touchdown during San Francisco's 27-7 win over the Rams.
Davante Adams (+400): Prime Chemistry Keeps the Window Open | BetOnline
Davante Adams has a 20% implied retirement probability at +400. The Los Angeles Rams receiver enters another season alongside Stafford.
Adams and Stafford developed a stronger connection during the second half of 2025. They continued building that chemistry throughout training camp.
That connection could play an important role in Adams' future. The Rams remain among the leading Super Bowl contenders, giving him another opportunity to compete at the highest level.
Joe Flacco (+450): Gunslinger Refuses to Go Away | BetOnline
Joe Flacco owns the second-longest retirement odds among the 10 players. His +450 price implies an 18% chance of retiring before 2027.
The 41-year-old quarterback re-signed with Cincinnati for his 19th NFL season. He started six games for the Bengals last year after arriving from Cleveland.
Flacco also remains productive enough to continue attracting NFL opportunities. He ranks 14th in career passing yards and 21st in touchdown passes.
Derrick Henry (+550): Ring-Chasing Beast Mode Has No Expiry | BetOnline
Derrick Henry has the lowest retirement probability in the market. His +550 odds imply only a 15% chance of retiring before the 2027 season.
Henry has been particularly clear about his intentions. The Ravens running back said retirement does not factor into his mindset entering his 11th season.
More recently, Henry said he wants to keep playing until he wins a Super Bowl. He enters 2026 determined to help Baltimore make that goal possible.
That outlook makes Henry the clearest contrast to Rodgers. While Rodgers has already declared his final season, Henry appears focused on extending his career.
Retirement Odds Put Rodgers on Top
The market creates a clear separation among the 10 veterans. Rodgers, Johnson and Kelce are the only players carrying implied retirement probabilities above 50%.
Donald occupies the middle ground after ending his own retirement. Stafford, Cousins and Evans sit between 25% and 29%.
Meanwhile, Adams, Flacco and Henry all carry odds below 20%.
For bettors comparing NFL odds at US online sportsbooks, the market offers several different retirement storylines. Some players have already hinted at their plans, while others remain focused on continuing their careers.
The 2026 NFL season should ultimately provide the answers, particularly as these veterans balance performance, health and their long-term priorities.
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Jonathan Rodriguez
Jonathan is an avid basketball fan, and is often looking forward to the next upcoming NBA season when not checking players' stats during games. He also likes to keep his ears on the ground for the latest rumblings in the online casino industry.
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