U.S. Open 2026 Odds, Preview & Picks

The U.S. Open returns to historic Shinnecock Hills Golf Club of Long Island, and I'm here to break down my favorite PGA picks this week! The event is one of the most decorated tournaments in golf, an elite field, and a brutal test that's going to separate the contenders from the pretenders in a hurry.

But this week, the story isn't just the course — it's the weather, and we'll get into why that changes everything before we dive into my best U.S. Open 2026 bets!

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U.S. Open 2026 Odds

Notable PGA odds via Lucky Rebel:

• Scottie Scheffler +600

• Rory McIlroy +1200

• Jon Rahm +1400

• Cameron Young +1800

• Matt Fitzpatrick +1800

• Xander Schauffele +1800

• Tommy Fleetwood +2200

• Bryson DeChambeau +2500

• Ludvig Aberg +2500

• Brooks Koepka +3500

• Wyndham Clark +3500

• Chris Gotterup +4000

• Collin Morikawa +4000

• Patrick Cantlay +4000

• Patrick Reed +4000

• Russell Henley +4000

• Sam Burns +4000

• Tyrrell Hatton +4000

• Justin Rose +4500

• Justin Thomas +4500

• Si Woo Kim +4500

• Viktor Hovland +4500

• J.J. Spaun +5000

• Hideki Matsuyama +6000

• Joaquin Niemann +6000

• Jordan Spieth +6000

• Shane Lowry +6000

• Robert MacIntyre +6500

• Ben Griffin +7000

• Min Woo Lee +7000

• Aaron Rai +8000

• Kristoffer Reitan +8000

• Maverick McNealy +8000

• Adam Scott +9000

• Alex Fitzpatrick +9000

• Cameron Smith +9000

• Harris English +9000

• Jake Knapp +9000

• Kurt Kitayama +9000

• Nicolai Hojgaard +9000

• Akshay Bhatia +10000

• Bud Cauley +10000

• Gary Woodland +10000

• Ryan Gerard +10000

• Sepp Straka +10000

2026 U.S. Open Picks and Best Bets

If you're here for the quick golf picks, here's who I'm on this week:

• Scottie Scheffler (+600)

• Russell Henley (+4000)

• Patrick Cantlay (+4000)

• Justin Rose (+4500)

• Plus a few bombs at the bottom (0.1 unit on each long shot)

Who Will Win The 2026 U.S. Open?

Scottie Scheffler: To Win (+600)

Yes, you read that right. I'm betting Scottie Scheffler this week — and if you've read my recent articles, you know I said I'd only pull the trigger on him if there was a true anomaly. This week qualifies, and I'm going a full unit on him.

There's a narrative going around that Scottie isn't having a good season, and frankly, it's nonsense. The guy was on such a torrid pace the last couple of years that — God forbid — he's dropped from an elite-elite golfer to merely an elite golfer for a stretch. Let's zoom out.

Since the beginning of April, he's competed in six tournaments and posted three second-place finishes and a third-place finish. His worst result in that stretch is a T-14 at the PGA Championship. What are we doing here? He's held to a ridiculous standard, but you cannot say this guy is playing bad golf. He's Scottie Scheffler, and he grades out as the top play in my model by a wide margin this week.

Here's the thing — he could have easily flipped that narrative himself. During the stretch where he posted three second-place finishes, he just needed to not finish runner-up once. Zoom out further, and he's won four times in the last calendar year, including a victory back in January, with multiple additional T-14-or-better finishes this year. The guy's an animal.

Scottie Scheffler is Elite at Not Imploding

But this week specifically is about damage control and treading water — and Scheffler is the best in the world at treading water while everyone else is reaching for the floaties in these treacherous conditions. Even when his short-iron game hasn't been at its absolute peak the last couple of weeks, he passes the eye test every single time.

I've been awestruck watching the sand saves and up-and-downs he's pulled off. The man is a magician around the greens, and it shows: he leads the TOUR in bogey avoidance, which is absolutely massive this week. He also leads the TOUR in par-4 scoring average — another huge caveat, because this tournament is going to be won or lost on the par 4s at Shinnecock.

Here's my read: Scottie has run into a buzzsaw in his recent runner-up finishes. A couple of guys getting grease-fire hot on easy, birdie-friendly courses, while his "go low" gear was an A-minus instead of an A-plus. But when it comes to not imploding, saving par, scrambling, and avoiding disaster, I think Scottie is a full tier ahead of the field. And if I'm comping Open Championship vibes here, remember — he won the Open Championship overseas last year.

Scottie Scheffler is going to win the U.S. Open this week. But if he doesn't, here are a few more guys I really like…

A quick note before we move on: since I'm betting Scottie, there are a couple of guys around 25-1 or better I'm not betting — but if I were, I'd be extremely interested in Tommy Fleetwood and Jon Rahm. Both have elite up-and-down games and can scramble with anyone, which is going to be enormous this week. If you're fading Scottie, those are my guys on the higher end of the board.

Russell Henley: To Win (+4000)

Russell Henley of the United States reacts on the 18th green during the first round of the TOUR Championship 2025 at East Lake Golf Club on August 21, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia

This is a really generous number on a guy who has quietly become one of the game's elite golfers, and one who isn't afraid of major championships. I'm going a quarter-unit on Henley and the other guys in this section.

Henley ranks sixth in my model this week, and there are a handful of guys ranked below him with significantly tighter odds, so the value here is obvious. He ranks third on TOUR in bogey avoidance, which is a massive trait this week, and he's tied for 10th in par-4 scoring average. Additionally, he finally broke through for a win this year at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and honestly, he could have won the Masters if he'd made a putt or two on the back nine.

He's capable of spike approach weeks too — in two of his last six appearances, he's gained well over two strokes on approach versus the field. He's a consistent driver, a decent-enough putter, and his around-the-green game is typically very good.

Now, the major track record, because that's what really seals it. Since 2024, Henley has played in the four combined U.S. Opens and Open Championships and has not finished worse than T10. Those appearances include a solo 5th and a T7. He's been firmly in the mix at the biggest events repeatedly, and we saw it again at the Masters this year. Yes, he missed the cut at the PGA Championship, but that was a tricky one where he lost a ton of strokes putting on ridiculous greens and struggled on approach. This guy is a gamer, and at these odds, he's locked onto my card.

Patrick Cantlay: To Win (+4000)

Steady Eddie. I get it. Cantlay is a boring pick; the guy never seems to win, and he's probably more of a placement-bet guy for a lot of bettors. But he ranks really highly in my model for one simple reason: he's not bad at anything.

Meanwhile, Cantlay has been a model of consistency over his entire career, and his recent form backs it up. Going back to March: a T-7 at the Valspar Championship, a T-12 at the Masters (with a spike approach week and great work around the greens), a T-8 at the RBC Heritage, a T-10 at the Truist Championship, a 35th at the PGA Championship, where the putter let him down, and a T-17 at the Memorial. The guy just throws together solid rounds, week after week.

He's proven he can contend on difficult courses in tough conditions too — a T-3 at the 2024 U.S. Open and a T-8 at the 2022 Open Championship. He's won on TOUR before; it's just been a while. I'm getting some Tommy Fleetwood vibes here, even if Fleetwood's first American win last year was a more monstrous narrative moment. If you're hunting for a high-floor golfer who can score, avoid damage, and grind, Cantlay fits. Are there a few slightly better all-around golfers out there? Sure. But we are factoring in the odds because that's the name of the game.

Justin Rose: To Win (+4500)

Another awesome number here. Rose isn't a model darling, but the guy just keeps showing up at major championships and high-profile events.

Rose has won twice since last August, posted a T-10 at the PGA Championship and a T-3 at the Masters, and, of course, there was last year's heartbreaking solo-second finish to Rory McIlroy. That 2013 U.S. Open title is ancient history at this point and almost irrelevant to his current form, but the pedigree at this event is undeniable. Additionally, J-Rose owns a T-2 at the 2024 U.S. Open, a T-3 at the 2019 U.S. Open, and a T-10 right here at Shinnecock back in 2018.

Give me this number on a big-game hunter who still clearly gets up for these tournaments. Eventually, he's going to land another big one, and the price here makes him well worth a swing.

The Bombs — Long-Shot Sprinkles

Yeah, the kind of bets you might want to have a cold one before placing (seriously, please bet responsibly). But what if I told you a few made sense? These are really, really tiny plays. Anyway, to round out the card, here are a few longshots I'm sprinkling on at big numbers:

• Alex Fitzpatrick (+9000): He's lived up to the billing since earning his TOUR card. He is consistently gaining strokes off the tee and is a well-rounded golfer.

• Harris English (+9000): The guy just seems to pop at majors. He ranks very highly in my model relative to his odds gap, and when his putter is working, he's as dangerous as anyone in the field.

• Gary Woodland (+10000): A former U.S. Open champ playing some really good golf. He earned a T-6 at the Charles Schwab a few weeks ago, a T-8 at the RBC Heritage in April, and a win at the Texas Children's Houston Open at the end of March. You could argue he's playing his best golf since the 2023-24 stretch before his lull, and he's fantastic off the tee.

• Brian Harman (+10000): When I think of grinding out a tough course in nasty conditions, I think of Harman doing his thing. He won the Open Championship in 2023 and has gained approach strokes in 11 of his last 12 appearances. He isn't always great off the tee, so we need to catch him on a good week. But at this number, it's a low-risk, high-reward swing. He gained strokes around the green in six straight tournaments earlier this season, posted a T-10 at last year's Open Championship, and a T-21 at the 2024 U.S. Open. Oh, yeah, he made the cut here at Shinnecock in 2018 while gaining strokes in every facet except putting. A better week on the greens, and he might have been in the mix.

Good luck, and let's find a winner!

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