The Open Championship 2026 Odds, Preview & Picks

The last golf major of the year is finally here, and it's time to dig into the best 2026 Open Championship picks! We're in the midst of two straight weeks of setting the alarm clock over here in America — especially on the East Coast. And if you're a golf sicko, your sleep schedule is probably as wrecked as mine.

This is a huge week with real buzz in the golf streets. The last time the game's best played here was Jordan Spieth's win nearly a decade ago in 2017. The weather looks pretty on-brand for an Open Championship at this point — not too severe, but there will be some wind in the forecast. We're looking at 7,223 yards at a par 70. Scottie Scheffler won The Open Championship last year, though that was not at this venue.

Meanwhile, I've got a little pep in my step this week after we landed the plane and brought Tom Kim home at 55-1 from last week's article. We've been all around the dartboard circling the bullseye lately, so it was awesome to finally cash an outright. Anyway, let's dive into my best 2026 Open Championship bets!

2026 Open Championship Odds

Notable PGA odds via Lucky Rebel

• Scottie Scheffler +750

• Rory McIlroy +800

• Matt Fitzpatrick +1600

• Tommy Fleetwood +1600

• Jon Rahm +2500

• Xander Schauffele +2500

• Chris Gotterup +2800

• Collin Morikawa +2800

• Justin Rose +3000

• Robert MacIntyre +3000

• Wyndham Clark +3000

• Cameron Young +3500

• Ludvig Aberg +3500

• Tyrrell Hatton +3500

• Viktor Hovland +3500

• Russell Henley +4500

• Tom Kim +4500

• Patrick Reed +5000

• Sam Burns +5000

• Si Woo Kim +5000

• Brooks Koepka +6000

• Bryson DeChambeau +6000

• Joaquin Niemann +6000

• Justin Thomas +6000

2026 Open Championship Picks & Best Bets

Modeling this one is tough. It's especially tricky from a course-history standpoint, so I blended a few different aspects together. I run a pretty complicated system with multiple scoring rubrics, ratios, and sliding scales, but I can assure you there's no guesswork in it (but it doesn't mean I'm always right!). There are plenty of talented golfers here, and I do think the cream will rise to the top. Someone very good at golf is probably going to win this thing.

Because of that, I'm putting two guys inside 20-1 on my card, which I don't typically do. My card is simple this week with just one bomb. I'm running two outright bets and three each-way bets. As always, you'll see the Lucky Rebel board above, and I'll give you the exact odds I'm getting my guys at:

• Tommy Fleetwood +1850 

• Matt Fitzpatrick +1900 

• Viktor Hovland +3300, 8 places

• Tom Kim +5000, 8 places

• Akshay Bhatia +10000, 8 places

Royal Birkdale Course Preview

• Location: Southport, England

• Par & Length: Par 70, 7,223 yards

• Course Difficulty: Demanding links

• Recent Open Winners Here: Jordan Spieth (2017), Padraig Harrington (2008)

• The Open Championship Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (different venue)

Birkdale is a classic links with towering dunes, but its fairways are known to be relatively fair and flat-bottomed compared to other rota courses, which tends to reward pure ball-strikers rather than punishing good shots with bad bounces. I want guys who can find the fairway off the tee and then be money with their approach play. Get the first shot out of the way, stay out of trouble, and handle business from there. Around-the-green game will be integral too.

Tommy Fleetwood: To Win The Open Championship (+1600)

Best Bet: +1850 to Win

Tommy Fleetwood isn't exactly for everyone because he's a one-time PGA TOUR winner who always gets praised as one of the game's elite. There's another dimension where he's a multiple major winner by now. He feels like a Patrick Cantlay on steroids, which might be doing Cantlay dirty since he's a multiple-time TOUR winner, but that's just the comp that comes to mind. Like Cantlay, Fleetwood offers such a high floor every week, and we're all waiting for that ceiling to show up a few more times while he's in his prime.

I really think he's been thinking about this exact opportunity for a long time — there's a hometown narrative for Tommy this week. He logged a T-27 at Birkdale in 2017, carding a rough 76 in the first round before going 69-66-70, which could have made things interesting. If you strip out the first round, he would have been T7…but I know what you're thinking. In the wise words of former Pittsburgh Steelers' head coach Mike Tomlin: "If my aunt had male parts, she'd be my uncle."

Anyway, Fleetwood's Open Championship track record is strong: T-16 in 2025, T-10 in 2023, T-4 in 2022, and a solo 2nd in 2019. Different venues, sure, but he fits the exact bill I'm looking for this week. He's long enough — basically TOUR average — but super accurate off the tee, with a dynamite approach game.

It was great to see him gain well over a full approach stroke on the field at the Scottish, which included holing out from a fairway on Sunday. He's also a fantastic around-the-green player and a great putter.

Why I'm Betting Tommy Fleetwood at The Open Championship

Fleetwood's driving accuracy is the separator: he's been positive in that category in every tournament except one in the calendar year of 2026. If the putter is even remotely there, Tommy contends, and I couldn't dream up a better story than Fleetwood lifting the Claret Jug.

His current form is typical Tommy: 10 top-15s or better in 15 PGA TOUR appearances since February, with six top-10s including three top-5s in the last four weeks, finishing no worse than T-14 in that stretch. He ranks sixth in my model, and I've been locked in on him for about six weeks, figuring that as long as nothing drove me away, I'm rocking with him at Royal Birkdale. Give me Tommy to get it done at +1850.

Fleetwood has the exact type of game to target this week, and it's about time he gets the job done. Why not now?

Matt Fitzpatrick: To Win The Open Championship (+1600)

Best Bet: +1900 to Win

Fitzpatrick is playing the best golf of his career, and he grades out as No. 1 in my model, so I'm totally cool going to the top of the board here. I hate to say it, but he kind of choked the Scottish Open away last week, missing a handful of really short putts on Sunday.

Nonetheless, he still gained over a stroke putting on the field in Scotland. His form is unbelievable: over his last four starts he has a T-3 at the Scottish Open, a 4th at the Travelers, a 22nd at the U.S. Open, and a solo 2nd at the RBC Canadian.

His irons are typically awesome. In fact, Fitz lost strokes on approach against a field just once in 2026. He's generally a very accurate driver, though we've seen a little volatility lately; he wasn't fantastic at the U.S. Open or the Memorial, but he was just fine at the Travelers and the Scottish.

The putting has been excellent too, gaining over a stroke on the greens in two of his last four starts, and he's very good around the greens. He awkwardly lost strokes around the green at the Scottish — his first time doing so since February — but that's a nitpick, and he's a great candidate to bounce back in that department. You're getting a guy who has won three times this season (including the team event), owns two solo seconds on the year, and is a former major champion. If you love the narrative that a winner here needs a major trophy or serious contention under his belt, you've got it with Fitzpatrick.

Why I'm Betting Matt Fitzpatrick at The Open Championship

The top of the board is interesting no matter how you slice it. Scottie is off a missed cut and hasn't been elite-elite Scottie, and Rory has uncharacteristically lost approach strokes in each of his last two weeks despite being great with the putter and off the tee last week. There are question marks around a ton of high-end names, and any of them can win, but Fitzpatrick is grading out as my top play. It's a bit of a chalky pick, but his play warrants the decision.

Viktor Hovland: To Win (+3500) | E/W 8 Places

Best Bet: +3300, eight places

These odds are so polarizing that this might be my favorite play on the card. I'm looking for guys who have won or can compete. While Hovland doesn't have a major yet, he's got the pedigree — eight TOUR wins, multiple Ryder Cups, and the 2023 FedEx Cup. He's had an interesting 365 days: strong to end last fall, then a stretch where his whole game wasn't clicking to his standards, but since the middle of June he's rattled off a 3rd at the RBC Canadian, a missed cut at the U.S. Open, a win at the Travelers, and a T-13 at the Scottish.

Like Fleetwood, he fits the mold — just long enough, super accurate off the tee, elite on approach when it's right, very good around the greens, and a very good putter. The short game is a newer revelation; he wasn't always a plus player there, but he's clearly worked at it, gaining strokes around the green in five of his last six appearances per Data Golf. Hovland's approach game is typically rock solid, losing SG: APP just twice to the field in 2026.

We've seen Hovland perform under pressure, and his Open record is solid — a T-4 in 2022 plus two other top-15s. His game is trending, the odds are really good, and he profiles as exactly the kind of golfer I want. My model grades him as its second-favorite this week, so I was thrilled to see that at this price. At worst, I think he sneaks into the eight places, and it could be a fun summer for Hovland if he grabs that first major.

Tom Kim: To Win (+4500) | E/W 8 Places

Best Bet: +5000, eight places

I guess I have to pay the Tom Kim tax after he brought it home for us last week, but honestly, even if he hadn't, Kim fits a lot of what I'm looking for — the odds are just the icing on the cake. He's super accurate off the tee, a great approach player when he's gelling, very crafty around the greens. Last week he gained over two approach strokes on the field, and even at the John Deere, where he didn't finish well, he gained over a stroke on approach.

Beyond winning the Scottish, we've seen him contend in big events lately, including a solo 3rd at the U.S. Open. He's been on a heater, and if you watched last week, he was lacing it right down the fairway out of the box. I'd be remiss not to throw a little formality bet on him after the win, but even so, the odds are too good for someone in this kind of form who's a decent course fit. He's the 10th-highest golfer in my model this week. Kim is an above-average putter, too, although when it's bad, it's bad.

It's honestly hard to believe this kid is only 24. Kim was a teenager getting all that TOUR experience, and it feels like he's been out here for a decade and a half. It was awesome to see him win after 1,000-plus days between titles. Winning on TOUR is incredibly hard, and so is picking a weekly winner as bettors, so it felt great to cash one with Kim last week. Maybe we get another from him — or someone else on this card.

Akshay Bhatia: To Win (100-1) | E/W 8 Places

Best Bet: +10000, eight places — just a sprinkle

Lastly, a long-shot sprinkle to close the card. I said it myself — the cream will likely rise to the top here — but 100-1 with eight places works for me on Akshay Bhatia. He checks a ton of boxes and ranks 14th in my model, which is pretty high on his skill set. He's another super young talent (also 24) who's already a three-time TOUR winner with no majors yet, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him playing late into Sunday.

He's in decent recent form after an up-and-down summer, coming off a T-5 at the Travelers and a T-17 at the U.S. Open, so we've seen him play well in majors. He won the Arnold Palmer in March during a hot stretch that also included a T-3 at the WM Phoenix Open, a T-6 at Pebble Beach, and a T-16 at the Genesis, then backed up the API win with a T-13 at THE PLAYERS.

Bhatia's approach play and accuracy come and go, and at 100-1 you know there's going to be volatility. But if the accuracy shows up, he's one of the best putters on TOUR and also strong around the greens. He's only played two Opens (missed cut in 2024, T-30 in 2025), but I like the eight-places angle here for a little pizza-money bet on a guy who's on a bit of a heater. Give me Akshay at a massive number.

2026 Open Championship Picks: Golfers I Almost Played

This will surely be fun to revisit:

• Robert MacIntyre: Bobby Mac almost made the card. He just plays so well at Opens, he's in a good mental state (based on a recent interview), and he was really good last week.

• Tyrrell Hatton: Rebounded after a brutal start at the Scottish last week — very much in the mix of names I weighed.

• Collin Morikawa: Interested here given the profile and odds, but he didn't make the final card.

• Rory McIlroy: His approach play hasn't been great the last two weeks, but he's been an absolute wizard around the greens. Rory and Tommy were essentially neck-and-neck in my model, and I'd rather take the guy at a much better price.

• Russell Henley: In theory, he fits here, but I wish he didn't have the recent drop-off around the greens, and his approach game has been hit-or-miss the last month. I was hoping to see him tune up in Scotland, but he didn't play. Wouldn't be shocked if he got his act together and contended.

• Justin Rose: The guy is just a dawg. He has been playing lights-out in majors and signature events for nearly two years now.

Good luck, and let's find another winner!

Still Didn't Get Your Betting Fix?

Follow me on X for all my picks, analysis, and plenty more. Also be sure to follow Betting News on 'X' and Twitch to catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more sports picks and news every day and check out our Free Expert Picks for every major sports league.

More Golf News

Golf Betting News

2026 Genesis Scottish Open Odds, Preview & Picks

Justin Carlucci Tue Jul 7 2026

Golf Betting News

John Deere Classic 2026 Odds, Preview & Picks

Justin Carlucci Tue Jun 30 2026

Golf Betting News

Travelers Championship 2026 Odds, Preview & Picks

Justin Carlucci Tue Jun 23 2026

Golf Betting News

U.S. Open Final Round Odds, Predictions & Picks: Will Clark Cruise to the Finish Line?

Eddie Griffin Sun Jun 21 2026

Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly

Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER

Get FREE Picks