The Memorial Tournament 2026 Odds, Preview & Picks

The PGA Tour heads to Muirfield Village Golf Club for the Memorial Tournament on Thursday, and I'm here to break down my favorite PGA picks this week! It's a signature event, an elite field, a course that separates the good from the great.

But first, we need to talk about the Memorial odds and the elephant in the room – Scottie Scheffler – before we dive into the rest of my best golf bets.

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Memorial Tournament 2026 Odds

Notable PGA odds via Lucky Rebel

• Scottie Scheffler +320

• Rory McIlroy +1200

• Ludvig Aberg +1400

• Cameron Young +1600

• Russell Henley +1800

• Xander Schauffele +1800

• Matt Fitzpatrick +2200

• Si Woo Kim +2200

• Tommy Fleetwood +2500

• Patrick Cantlay +2800

• Ben Griffin +3000

• Justin Thomas +3000

• Hideki Matsuyama +4000

• J.J. Spaun +4000

• Jordan Spieth +4500

• Min Woo Lee +4500

• Alex Smalley +5000

Betting Scottie Scheffler This Week

PGA Championship Betting Guide cover (Scottie Scheffler holds up the winner's trophy after winning the 2025 PGA Championship)

Let's just get this out of the way, because Scheffler is the conversation at every tournament he enters — and especially here. The world's No. 1 is +320 to win this week, which has become the new norm.

Scheffler's track record at Muirfield Village over the last five years is one of the craziest course-specific stretches you'll find anywhere in professional golf. He's teed it up here four times and hasn't finished worse than third in any of them. His run here features a pair of third-place finishes in 2021 and 2023, followed by back-to-back victories in 2024 and 2025.

According to Data Golf, in those Memorial starts, he's gained over three strokes on the field on approach twice, and added a two-plus SG: Approach showing in 2025 on top of that. For context, he's gained approach strokes in 24 of his last 25 starts. The man absolutely adores this golf course, and the numbers back it up every single year.

So why am I not betting him? Honestly, it comes down to the number. I generally don't bet outrights inside 10-1 or so unless something is an anomaly. The narrative that "Scottie hasn't won in a while" is a little misleading. He's been circling the bullseye in nearly every event he enters. Nevertheless, he just keeps running into someone playing out of their mind at exactly the wrong moment.

Scottie's recent form includes a second-place finish at The Masters, a T-14 at the PGA Championship, third at the CJ Cup, and a win back in January. This would be dynamite stuff for anyone else in the world, but he's on a tier of his own, which comes with massive expectations.

One thing worth noting: several books are running "Without Scottie Scheffler" markets this week, where you pick the winner and still cash if your golfer finishes runner-up only to Scheffler. The adjusted odds will be tighter than a standard outright, but the protection is real. Meanwhile, each-way betting is another option worth exploring if you want some insurance on placement finishes. Both are smart ways to attack any field that has Scheffler.

2026 Memorial Tournament Picks & Best Bets

Now that the Scheffler TED talk is done, let's get to the best golf bets for this week. Spoiler alert:

• Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200)
• Alex Smalley (+4500)
• Justin Thomas (+5000)
• Alex Fitzpatrick

Still with me? Check out the full analysis below!

Matt Fitzpatrick: To Win (+2200) | Without Scheffler (+1900)

This is my main play of the week, and I feel pretty good about it.

Firstly, Fitzpatrick is having the best stretch of his career right now. He's won three times since the beginning of March — including the Zurich Classic alongside his brother Alex, which locked him into the PGA Tour for the foreseeable future — and the underlying numbers suggest the results aren't a fluke. Additionally, Matt Fitz has gained approach strokes compared to the field in each of his last seven starts, so he's locked in on what's arguably the most important metric from week to week.

The course fit here is about as clean as you'll find in this field. A golfer needs accuracy, long-iron precision, and a reliable short game at Muirfield Village, which are three areas where Fitzpatrick is essentially elite. He ranks third overall in ball striking this season and sits top-25 in scrambling per PGA Tour data, which is a true luxury to lean on.

In my personal model, he grades out seventh overall this week. Everyone ranked above him in the model is at a meaningfully tighter number on the odds board. At 22-1, I think we're getting a very fair price on one of the hottest and best-suited players in this field. Fitzpatrick has arrived, and it's a matter of when – not if – he wins another tournament in the near future.

I'm rocking a half-unit on him to win at 22/1 and another half in the "without Scheffler" market.

Alex Smalley: To Win (+4500) | Without Scheffler (+3500)

Can Alex Smalley make a splash this weekend?

Smalley has been one of the most consistent ball strikers on the PGA Tour in 2026, and the results are starting to reflect it in a big way. He's fresh off a runner-up finish at the PGA Championship and a T3 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, which tells you this guy can hang in premium fields.

Additionally, the course fit works here too. Smalley is an accurate driver who shapes shots well, and his long-iron game is a strength.  If the putter gets hot, the ceiling blows through the roof for this guy.

Smalley is nearly 30 years old, but better late than never, right? He's going to break through and win one of these soon. I want some exposure at this price.

Justin Thomas: To Win (+5000) Three Places

Justin Thomas is in a great spot to excel

JT is a name I keep circling back to this week, and the course history here makes it hard to walk away. He owns three career top-10 finishes at Muirfield Village, including a runner-up in 2020. One can argue that JT is playing some of the best golf that he's put together in a while. 

Thomas has certainly endured an up-and-down career trajectory, but it catches my eye that he's been pretty accurate off the tee in four straight tournaments. This is a sprinkle, not a conviction play. But at this number, with his history here, it earns a spot on my card.

Alex Fitzpatrick: Top 20 (+260) | Top 10 (+800)

The younger Fitzpatrick brother is a legitimate PGA Tour talent, and this is a course that suits his game well. He's accurate and good with his long irons. Alex was having an awesome year overseas. In fact, he flashed some serious ball striking at the Truist, where he gained over two strokes on approach. I'm loving these odds for another splash on my card.

Good luck, and let's find a winner!

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