The pro’s of the PGA will head out to Shinnecock Hills, New York for the 118th US Open. This year, the tournament is being played at the Shinnecock Hills Golf Club near Long Island, New York. This is the 5th time this venue has hosted the US Open and is one that many golfers are sure to talk about for the days to come. You shouldn’t expect to see a ton of scoring this week. As a matter of fact, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the final score was right around par.
This golf course measures 7,445 yards and only plays as a par 70. That means you are going to need some golfers with some distance that can make up the ground on those long Par 4’s. Winds always seem to be a factor in this area of New York and I would plan on having a steady wind of 10-15 mph throughout the entire tournament.
Another aspect of this golf course that will cause issues is the narrow fairways. This course has done numerous redesigns and the fairways have always seemed to be centered around the changes. At one point, they were very wide, then they scaled them down to an average of just 26 yards wide and now they have added to the width making them average around 41 yards. That is still very narrow but nothing like past years when it was played here.
The other aspect that will cause golfers a ton of headaches if the rough. Unlike many of the other courses the golfers become accustomed to, Shinnecock Hills rough is truly penalizing and nearly impossible to drive the ball any sort of distance out of. Golfers will be forced to chip the ball back onto the fairway before making their approach on the hole. This can penalize a golfer with one, maybe even two strokes.
I totally expect one of the top tier guys to win this tournament. The US Open is the second major of the year and really takes a overall well rounded golfer to win this tournament. We have factored in all of the aspects above and came up with the following list for the 2018 US Open.
Top Bet at US Open – Henrik Stenson 25/1
Our top play this week for the US Open is Henrik Stenson. Stenson can be found anywhere between 25/1 and 33/1. If you pay attention to history, you probably will avoid Stenson but I am favoring more of the recent form than I am course history and tournament history. Stenson is really playing good golf right now and comes in primed to get a win in the major. Stenson is #1 Greens In Reg, #1 Strokes Gained: Approach, #1 Bogey Avoidance, #1 Driving Accuracy, #1 in Par 4 Scoring and #3 in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green. Not much more should need to be said about Stenson for you to realize his numbers are off the page for stats that correlate to Shinnecock Hills.
Top Longshot at US Open – Kyle Stanley 120/1
Our longshot play of today is Kyle Stanley at 120/1. Stanley is a very accurate golfer and relies heavily on his accuracy to compete. That will drastically help him this week on a course that requires strict accuracy and distance, both of which he has. Kyle is coming in fresh off a 2nd place finish at the The Memorial Tournament in Ohio and should be well rested as he did not play last week. Stanley is an amazing value at 120/1.
Top Fade at US Open – Rory McIlroy 10/1
My top fade this week is Rory McIlroy at 10/1. This course doesn’t really fit with Rory’s playing style. Rory is long off the tee, which is a benefit but most recently he has gotten a little wild off the tee and missed some fairways. He missed the cut 3 tournaments back at the Players Championship basically because his accuracy with the driver was really bad. He seemed to turn it around at the BMW Championship and the Memorial Tournament but I still don’t like his chances in the US Open, where he has missed the cut in the last two years and four out of the last eight years overall.