Charles Schwab Challenge 2026 Odds, Preview & Picks
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Wed May 27, 2026, 11:45 am ET
Read Time: 12 minutes
golf
The PGA Tour concludes its Texas stretch this week down in Fort Worth for the Charles Schwab Challenge.
As Colonial Country Club celebrates its 80th anniversary as the PGA Tour's longest-running host venue for a non-major event, players will once again be tested by the precision and discipline required to navigate the historic layout of this course.
Below, we'll get you everything that you need to know for this week's tournament with our Charles Schwab Challenge 2026 odds, preview and picks.
Ludvig Aberg +850
Justin Thomas +1800
Russell Henley +1800
Rickie Fowler +2500
Robert MacIntyre +2500
Ben Griffin +2800
Alex Smalley +3000
Hideki Matsuyama +3000
J J Spaun +3000
Akshay Bhatia +3500
Harry Hall +4000
Ryo Hisatsune +4000
Colonial Country Club Preview
Par: 70
Yards: 7289
Difficulty: 8th toughest
Bunkers: 64 (15th fewest)
Water Danger Holes: 6 (15th most)
Fairways: Bermuda (6th narrowest)
Rough: Bermuda (2.5 inches, average)
Greens: Bentgrass (5th smallest, fast speed)
Colonial is a classic precision-over-power layout that forces players to rely on accuracy, positioning and elite ball striking rather than pure distance. The tight, tree-lined fairways and numerous doglegs often lead players to club down off the tee in order to find ideal angles into some of the smallest greens on TOUR.
Approach play is especially demanding here, as Colonial ranked as the sixth-toughest course on TOUR to gain strokes on approach last season. Players who miss fairways can quickly find themselves in trouble, considering GIR rates sit at 59% overall, but drop to just 41% from the rough over the past five years. That's a major reason why Good Drive Percentage stands out as one of the most important stats to weigh this week.
Birdies are difficult to come by here, which helps explain why the winning score has averaged just 12-under par over the last 15 years. The Par 3s are especially challenging, collectively producing just a 14% birdie rate, while the Par 4s place a major emphasis on both wedge play and long-iron precision.
Strong putting has also historically been a key ingredient for success at Colonial. In fact, 18 of the last 20 winners ranked 17th or better in putting average during the season of their victory, making SG: Putting on Bentgrass another critical metric to prioritize this week alongside SG: Approach, Bogey Avoidance, Birdie or Better Percentage, SG: Par 4s, SG: Off-the-Tee and Scrambling.
Charles Schwab Challenge Picks
NOTE: A quarter unit is allocated to outright plays and a full unit on the top finishing positions, which are including ties unless stated otherwise, and head-to-head wagers.
As always, be sure to shop around for the best numbers, as PGA odds can vary significantly from book to book.
Rickie Fowler: To Win (25/1) | Top 30 (-130)
I didn't necessarily feel great about pulling the trigger on Rickie Fowler this week, though that has more to do with his price than anything else. This is one of the shortest numbers we've seen attached to Fowler in quite some time, but there are plenty of reasons why.
Over the past month and a half, Fowler has recorded three top-10 finishes across his last four tournaments. He also brings plenty of experience to Colonial Country Club, where he's logged 42 career rounds.
The metrics support him, too. Fowler ranks fourth in my model this week, checking in third in SG: Total and 11th in SG: Putting this season among this field. Additionally, he's 13th in both SG: Par 4s over the past two years on courses with difficult scoring conditions and SG: Off-the-Tee on layouts that have historically been difficult to gain strokes off the tee.
He's also 15th in Birdie or Better Percentage over that same two-year span on difficult scoring courses and has consistently putted well on Bentgrass greens.
It does feel a bit like buying high on Fowler, which initially gave me some hesitation, but from an objective standpoint, he's incredibly difficult to ignore this week.
Hideki Matsuyama: To Win (33/1) | Top 30 (-106)
I mean, this price is simply too good to pass up on a golfer like Hideki Matsuyama.I understand we're getting a slight discount due to some underwhelming recent finishes and the lingering injury concerns, but I'm willing to buy into the dip and see what he's capable of at Colonial Country Club.
Matsuyama ranks seventh in my model this week. He's second in Scrambling, fifth in Birdie or Better Percentage, 11th in SG: APP and 14th in SG: Par 4s over the past two years on difficult scoring courses.
I just feel like there's too much overlooking going on with a talent like Matsuyama in a slightly more open field this week, and at 30/1 or better, it's worth taking a shot.
Alex Smalley: To Win (34/1) | Top 30 (+106)
The man who nearly secured us a 184/1 outright ticket at the PGA Championship, along with a 60/1 outright at the Zurich Classic, is finding his way back onto my betting card this week at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Smalley finished runner-up in both of those events after holding the lead and ultimately letting it slip away. While I may be slightly bitter that he couldn't come through on either of those, I can't allow those missed opportunities to cloud what has otherwise been an impressive stretch of golf from the 29-year-old, especially considering this shapes up as another strong setup for him.
He's sixth in my model this week, ranking first in SG: Par 4s over the past two years on difficult scoring courses, while also sitting eighth in Good Drive Percentage over that same stretch on layouts where players have needed a mixed bag off the tee.
Smalley can shape his shots effectively, and if the putter heats up like it did for three rounds at the PGA Championship, there's no denying the upside he brings into this event. He's missed just one cut this season and has now posted six consecutive finishes of T-21 or better, including three top-10s across his last four starts.
He's going to break through at some point, and I want to make sure I'm a part of it when he does.
Akshay Bhatia: To Win (43/1) | Top 30 (+110)
The lefty swinger is really standing out to me this week. I'm shocked we're getting this kind of price on a golfer who's already proven he can win and contend in just about any type of event.
At the same time, Bhatia has also shown the ability to completely play himself out of tournaments. He opened the season with back-to-back missed cuts at The American Express and the Farmers Insurance Open, then immediately responded with a T-3 at the Phoenix Open, T-6 at Pebble Beach and a victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
More recently, he's missed the cut at both the Masters and the PGA Championship, though sandwiched in between were finishes of T-16 at the RBC Heritage, T-23 at the Cadillac Championship and T-37 at the Truist Championship.
My model loves him this week, as he ranks third overall. Among this field, Bhatia is second in SG: Putting, fifth in SG: Total and 17th in SG: APP this season. Over the past two years, he also ranks top-10 in Birdie or Better Percentage, SG: Par 4s, SG: TOT in the Texas region and SG: APP on tracks where it's very difficult to gain strokes on approach shots.
Sure, he can be sporadic, but the upside attached to that volatility is enormous, and this feels like another spot where Bhatia can flash the high-end form we've already seen from him multiple times this season.
Ryo Hisatsune: To Win (45/1) | Top 40 (-128)
After missing the cut at the Sony Open back in January, the 23-year-old Japanese stud has not missed a weekend since.
Some of his best finishes this season include a runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open, T-10 at the Phoenix Open, T-8 at Pebble Beach, T-13 at THE PLAYERS, T-8 at the Valero Texas Open and a T-19 last week at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
He's also logged six career rounds at Colonial Country Club, posting a +1.20 True SG mark during that span. He missed the cut here in 2024, but responded last season with a T-6 finish at seven-under par.
Hisatsune ranks fifth in my model this week and grades out extremely well across nearly every key category I've prioritized, with the lone exception being the flat stick. He'll need to overperform with the putter to truly contend for the trophy, but if he can simply remain average with the flat stick, the rest of his game should be more than enough to keep him comfortably inside the top 40.
Keegan Bradley: To Win (47/1) | Top 30 (+110)
You think this is a disgusting pick? Don't worry, I'm right there with you. Still, this feels like the type of week where the U.S. Ryder Cup captain can quietly return to form.
Ever since the Ryder Cup collapse, Bradley simply hasn't looked like the same golfer. He's missed the cut in over 30% of his appearances this season, including his most recent outing at the PGA Championship.
To round out our betting card for the Charles Schwab Challenge, we'll take a look at a couple more golfers whose value specifically stands out in their top-40 finish markets.
Pierceson Coody made our list last week and ultimately put together a quality showing at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson with a T-19 finish. He's had a handful of quality finishes similar to last week, but has yet to sniff the winner's circle.
Coody sits 15th in my model, and what really stands out is his ability with the putter. He ranks first in SG: PUTT on Bentgrass greens over the past couple of years and is also 17th in SG: TOT this season among this crop of golfers.
This is a really cheap price for a golfer who has no excuse to finish outside of the top 40 this week.
Additionally, Christiaan Bezuidenhout stands out as a value play inside the top 40, too. The 32-year-old South African has produced a mixed bag of results this season, but has displayed nothing but consistency at Colonial Country Club over the past several years.
He has 18 rounds of experience at this track and owns a +1.43 True SG mark during that span. In 2022, he finished T-15, followed by a T-21 in 2023, T-17 in 2024 and a T-16 last season.
And it's not solely because of his history here either – my model genuinely likes him this week, as he sits 16th overall, presenting a clear opportunity to capitalize on a plus-money price for him to finish inside the top 40 at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Charles Schwab Challenge Picks:
- Hideki Matsuyama: To Win (33/1) | Top 30 (-106)
- Alex Smalley: To Win (34/1) | Top 30 (+106)
- Akshay Bhatia: To Win (43/1) | Top 30 (+110)
- Ryo Hisatsune: To Win (45/1) | Top 40 (-128)
- Keegan Bradley: To Win (47/1) | Top 30 (+110)
- Pierceson Coody Top 40 (-112)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 40 (+102)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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