Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder Prediction, Picks, and Odds

The highlight of this weekend’s boxing calendar will take place at the Estadio Akron in Guadalajara, Mexico, with a Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder bout that will see Canelo (58-2-2, 39 KOs) put his super middleweight title belts on the line against the WBO interim super middleweight champion.

Tomorrow night’s fight will be Canelo’s first on home soil since a win over Kermit Cintron in Mexico City on November 26, 2011, and it will be his first fight in his hometown since a win over Ryan Rhodes on June 18, 2011.

Those interested in watching the fight can do so via DAZN pay-per-view, and the main event will likely take place around midnight ET (9:00 pm local time).

Unsurprisingly, Alvarez is a heavy, heavy favorite to come out on top in his return home. But will he make good on those odds, or will Ryder somehow spring a major upset?

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While the Canelo vs Ryder matchup takes the boxing spotlight this weekend, the MMA spotlight will squarely be on UFC 288, which will be taking place in Newark, New Jersey.

That event will be headlined by the UFC Bantamweight Championship fight between champion Aljamain Sterling and Henry Cejudo, a former holder of the UFC’s bantamweight and flyweight title belts.

• Aljamain Sterling vs Henry Cejudo Prediction, Odds & Picks
• UFC 288 Full Fight Card & Odds

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Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder Odds

Odds are via FanDuel as of Friday, May 5, 2023, at 11:00 am ET.

Moneyline

• Canelo Alvarez -1800
• John Ryder +890

Total Rounds Over/Under

• Over 8.5 (-112)
• Under 8.5 (-112)

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

• Yes +350
• No -550

Method of Victory

• Canelo Alvarez by points or decision +430
• Canelo Alvarez by KO/TKO -370
• Draw +2900
• John Ryder by points or decision +1700
• John Ryder by KO/TKO +1600

Will Canelo Make Light Work of Ryder?

When Canelo was last in the ring, he defeated longtime nemesis Gennady Golovkin by unanimous decision to retain his super middleweight titles on September 6 of last year.

It was certainly a win to savor for him, both because it was a title defense against someone whom he doesn’t care for very much at all and because it was a winning return to action after his light heavyweight loss to Dmitry Bivol almost one year ago.

While he went the distance with GGG, an easier fight is expected against Ryder, who will be fighting outside of England for just the fifth time in 38 professional fights.

Of those five fights, this will be his third in North America. In May 2019, he defeated Bilal Akkawy via a third-round TKO to win the WBA interim super middleweight title at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, the same night that Canelo defeated Daniel Jacobs in a middleweight title bout there. Then in December 2020, he defeated Mike Guy at Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood, Florida.

Ryder certainly won’t be there to just collect a paycheck, but he certainly faces long odds to pull off a stunner.

Speaking of odds, given how much of a favorite Canelo is, you have to do some extra digging to find betting value for this matchup.

Ultimately, the best place to look are the method of victory and round-related markets. There is some risk involved in backing the most worthwhile options in those markets, but there is value.

Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder Prediction & Picks

Prediction for Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder: Canelo Alvarez to win

Picks for Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder: Canelo Alvarez to win in rounds 7-12 (Best Value: BetMGM)

With this being his first fight in his hometown and in Mexico for so long, Canelo will no doubt want to put on a show for the home crowd.

I do not expect to see this fight go the distance, but I think it will last long enough for the home crowd to get their money’s worth.

There is no value if you opt to back Canelo to win by KO/TKO, but the group round betting markets offer up a lot of value. If you, like I do, think that Ryder can make it to the latter half of the fight, backing the fight to end in rounds 7-12 offers a little extra flexibility and value than going with the over 8.5 rounds.

Where to Bet on the Wells Fargo Championship

Here are four legal sports betting sites that we highly recommend and have reviewed, where you can place your Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder bets.

You can get in on the action at any of the top sports betting sites out there. But these four books are all reputable names, and you can trust them with your betting funds.