Benavidez vs. Zurdo Prediction, Picks & Odds: Will Benavidez’s Substantial Step Up Be Successful?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Update: Sat May 02, 2026, 6:58 pm ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Over the last decade, David Benavidez has built up an impressive resume that includes championship runs at both super middleweight and light heavyweight. Will he add a cruiserweight title to that crown? Tonight, Benavidez will aim to do that vs. Gilbert "Zurdo" Ramirez at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Benavidez (31-0, 25 KOs) currently holds the WBA and WBC light heavyweight titles, but he has packed on the pounds to take on Zurdo (48-1, 30 KOs), who has held the WBA and WBO cruiserweight titles since 2024.
According to the odds at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, Benavidez is a big favorite to claim those two belts. But will he back up the odds? Those who want to see if he will do so can catch every second of this exciting encounter via DAZN pay-per-view. DAZN has played host to the biggest bouts in boxing this year, and there are multiple ways you can sign up at DAZN to make sure you don't miss out on Benavidez vs. Zurdo.
Benavidez vs. Zurdo Fight Information
- Matchup: David Benavidez (31-0, 25 KOs) vs. Gilbert "Zurdo" Ramirez (48-1, 30 KOs)
- Location (Venue): Las Vegas, Nevada (T-Mobile Arena)
- Date: Saturday, May 2, 2026
- How to Watch:
Benavidez vs. Zurdo Odds
Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of 6:50 p.m. ET Saturday, May 2, 2026.
| Moneyline | Total Rounds Over/Under | Fight to Go the Distance | |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Benavidez | -800 | Over 11.5 (-310) | Yes -275 |
| Zurdo Ramirez | +460 | Under 11.5 (+225) | No +200 |
Benavidez vs. Zurdo Probabilities
Implied and true probabilities. True (no-vig) probabilities are in parentheses.
| Win Probability % | Over 11.5 Rounds % | Fight to Go the Distance % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Benavidez | 88.89% (85.78%) | 75.61% (71.89%) | 73.33% (68.75%) |
| Zurdo Ramirez | 17.86% (14.22%) | 30.77% (28.11%) | 33.33% (31.25%) |
Benavidez vs. Zurdo Prediction and Analysis
Boxers commonly move up divisions and put on weight, whether for individual fights or as part of their career path.
However, Benavidez has had a rather significant bump for his bout vs. Zurdo. At Friday's weigh-in, Ramirez weighed in at 200 pounds, while Benavidez came in at 196.8 pounds. That is 22.5 pounds more than his weight for his November bout against Anthony Yarde.
Will this impact how things transpire tonight at T-Mobile Arena?
Ultimately, it shouldn't. Neither should the familiarity that the two boxers have with one another. Benavidez and Ramirez were frequent sparring partners for several years, starting when the former was still a teenager.
That knowledge base may hold some weight on both sides, but with how much evolution occurs over the course of a career, there's only so much you can take stock in those sessions.
Will Ramirez retain his belts, or will Benavidez add a new pair to his collection? You certainly can't rule out an upset, but favorites of this level typically do not lose. Do not expect an exception to that here.
Benavidez vs. Zurdo Picks
David Benavidez to Score a Knockdown (+200 at Lucky Rebel)
At Lucky Rebel, the odds are +115 for either fighter to score a knockdown. If you want to play it safe and not risk coming up empty-handed for leaning the wrong way, that bet has value.
But if you are backing Benavidez to win, as is the case here, taking the longer odds for him to score a knockdown is the move over the safer play. Fight odds favor this one going the distance (at -275 odds), but even if it does, I like this play given the odds.
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