Liberty vs Aces WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Prediction & Picks

Eddie Griffin

Written by: Eddie Griffin

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Liberty vs Aces WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Prediction & Picks cover


Over the first three months of the WNBA season, the New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces have established themselves as the two best teams in the league. Tonight, the two teams will face off in a potential WNBA Finals preview in the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup championship at Michelob Ultra Arena (9:00 pm ET, Amazon Prime Video).

Each team’s first home and away game against their conference foes counted in the Commissioner’s Cup standings. In the Western Conference, the 9-1 Aces finished three games ahead of the 6-4 Dallas Wings. In the Eastern Conference, the Liberty and Connecticut Sun both finished 7-3, but the Liberty took the tiebreaker due to a 2-0 record against the Sun.

Unlike those games, this matchup won’t count in the regular season standings. Nor will it provide some sort of postseason advantage for the winner.

That said, it is far from a meaningless game. There is a prize pool of $500,000 for the winning team, and the Commissioner’s Cup MVP receives an extra $5,000.

With all of that at stake, and with this being a matchup between the league’s two best teams and best two players, we should be in for an entertaining 40 minutes at Michelob Ultra Arena.

The Western Conference representative came out on top in 2021 (Seattle Storm) and 2022 (Aces). Will that continue this year?

New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces Odds

Odds are via Bovada.


  • New York Liberty +7 (-110)
  • Las Vegas Aces -7 (-110)


  • Over 176.5 (-110)
  • Under 176.5 (-110)


  • New York Liberty +260
  • Las Vegas Aces -320

Team Totals Over/Under

New York Liberty

  • Over 85.5 (-110)
  • Under 85.5 (-120)

Las Vegas Aces

  • Over 91.5 (-115)
  • Under 91.5 (-115)

Will the Aces Dominate the Liberty at Home Again?

Kelsey Plum Sabrina Ionescu Las Vegas Aces New York Liberty WNBA

Tonight’s matchup will be the third of the season between the Aces and Liberty. The first two have been comprehensive wins for the home team, so we are due for a close game.

When they met at Michelob Ultra Arena on June 29, the Aces torched the Liberty for 98 points in a 17-point win. The tables were turned when they met nine days ago at Barclays Center, as the Aces were outscored 50-17 in the second half in a 99-61 loss.

Will the third quarter be the decisive quarter again?

In the first meeting, Las Vegas led by seven at halftime then put the game away by outscoring New York 27-14.

In the second meeting, New York led by five at halftime then put the game away by outscoring Las Vegas 30-9.

Along with the two head-to-head matchups between the Aces and Liberty this season, Liberty star Breanna Stewart and reigning WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson faced off as captains in the 2023 WNBA All-Star Game–held in Las Vegas–last month.

Team Wilson, which featured four members of the Aces, was favored, but Team Stewart claimed a 143-127 win.

Wilson, Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum, and Chelsea Gray may not have been able to defend home court in the WNBA All-Star Game, but that hasn’t been an issue as a team. The Aces enter tonight’s game having won 14 straight home games this season and 19 regular season games in a row dating back to last season.

Their last home loss of any sort was a 76-73 loss to the Seattle Storm in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals.

Since then, Breanna Stewart, who scored 24 points in that win, has swapped Seattle for New York, and she and A’ja Wilson have pulled away from the field as the top two WNBA MVP candidates this season.

New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction and Picks

Liberty vs Aces Picks: Aces -7 (-110 at Bovada) & Liberty/Aces over 176.5 (-110 at Bovada)

This might be the closest game between the two teams this season, but it will still end in a comfortable Aces win.

Where to Bet on the WNBA

The Liberty vs Aces betting odds mentioned in this article came from Bovada, but they aren’t the only sports betting site out there offering WNBA odds.

There are a number of online sportsbooks that are good for betting on the WNBA, but the above books are four that we highly recommend.

While you’re here, check out our WNBA betting guide, which is handy for both new and experienced bettors.

Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and betting on sports for over a decade and has been with Betting News since 2021. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter.

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