Mercury vs. Sparks Prediction & Best Bets (8/26): Another Triple-Double for Thomas?

Written by: Eddie Griffin

Last Update: Tue Aug 26, 2025, 9:58 pm ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

wnba

FINAL

Phoenix Mercury

Los Angeles Sparks

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The Los Angeles Sparks are not quite there yet, but being one of the hottest teams in the WNBA for the last month and a half could be about to pay off for them. Tonight, the Sparks will try to pick up their 12th win in 16 games in a key contest vs. the Phoenix Mercury (10:00 p.m. ET, NBA TV).

The Sparks (17-18) jumped into the mix with an 8-1 stretch across last month and this month, and though they have alternated wins and losses as of late, they find themselves just a game out of a playoff spot and hot on the heels of the Seattle Storm (20-18), Golden State Valkyries (19-18), and Indiana Fever (19-18) entering play today.

The Mercury (22-14), meanwhile, are sitting pretty for a playoff spot and are playing for seeding at this point. They enter their visit to Crypto.com Arena fourth in the WNBA standings, but they are only a game and a half out of the second seed with a relatively favorable finishing stretch to come.

Who will come away with the victory in this matchup, and how should you bet it? Read on for our Mercury vs. Sparks prediction and best bets and see which top online sportsbooks offer the best betting value for the bets listed below.

Mercury vs. Sparks Betting Trends

Phoenix is 19-16-1 against the spread this season, including 3-5 ATS when favored by five or fewer points.
The Mercury are 6-3 SU and 4-4-1 ATS as a road favorite this season and 10-8 SU and 8-9-1 on the road overall this season.
Overs have not been a frequent occurrence in recent Mercury games, both on the road and overall. The under is 6-3-1 in Phoenix's last 10 games overall, and it is also 6-3-1 in Phoenix's last 10 road games.
The Sparks are 7-10 SU and 5-12 ATS at home this season, including 2-5 SU and ATS as a home underdog
On the flip side, the Sparks are 7-4 SU and 7-3-1 in their last 11 games overall as an underdog.
The over is 24-10-1 in Sparks games this season, including 14-4 in their last 18 games and 12-4-1 in their home games.

Mercury vs. Sparks Prediction and Best Bets

The Sparks' overall record at home is a rough sight on the surface, but six of their seven home wins have come in their last seven games following an atrocious 1-9 start.

That includes a thrilling 81-80 win over the Dallas Wings when they last took the court six days ago. It was a game that Los Angeles could not afford to lose, but they nearly did. Fortunately, Kelsey Plum salvaged a so-so shooting showing in the best way possible, draining a buzzer-beater to deliver a desperately needed win.

The Mercury have had some off time of their own to get ready for tonight's matchup vs. the Sparks, as their last game was four days ago against Golden State. The 81-72 scoreline does not indicate how dominant of a performance it was for Phoenix, who led by as many as 20 points and was not threatened at any meaningful juncture.

The win was highlighted by another stat-sheet stuffer by Alyssa Thomas, as she tallied 13 points, 12 rebounds, and a career-high 16 assists.

Five of Thomas's triple-doubles have come in August, and all five came in Mercury wins, accounting for five of Phoenix's six wins this month. In the lone win in which she didn't record a triple-double, she came up one rebound and two assists short.

That indicates her importance to the cause for the Mercury, and if you are backing Phoenix for a win tonight vs. the Sparks, you would be wise to back Thomas for another triple-double.

Triple-Doubles for Alyssa Thomas This Season

13 points, 12 rebounds, 16 assists vs. Golden State (8/22)
19 points, 10 rebounds, 11 assists at Seattle (8/17)
18 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists vs. Indiana (8/7)
13 points, 12 rebounds, 12 assists vs. Connecticut (8/5)
10 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists at Chicago (8/3)
15 points, 10 rebounds, 15 assists vs. Dallas (7/7)

However, taking the home team is very tempting here given how they have performed recently. The Sparks have not had a wealth of opportunities to face the league's better teams at home during their hot streak, but they do own recent home wins over the Fever and Storm and put up 97 points against the Liberty in a competitive loss two weeks ago.

This is certainly not a team without its deficiencies, and those deficiencies can be exploited by a team that has the weapons that the Mercury do.

With that in mind, avoiding the spread on either side feels like the best choice to make here. A small play on the Sparks ML is worth considering, but other than that, sit back and enjoy the offensive fireworks for what should be some top-quality Tuesday night viewing.

Mercury vs. Sparks Prediction: Sparks to win

Mercury vs. Sparks Best Bets: 1) Mercury/Sparks first half over 91 (-110 at BetOnline) 2) Alyssa Thomas to record a triple-double (+285 at Bovada) 3) Kelsey Plum over 20.5 points (-104 at Lucky Rebel)