UEFA Champions League Group Stage, Newcastle vs Paris Saint-Germain: UCL is Back!
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Tue Oct 03, 2023, 6:44 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
UEFA
The UEFA Champions League is back for the 2nd game of Group Stage!
We're breaking down the matchup between Newcastle United and Paris Saint-Germain happening in Group F, the Group of Death!
Newcastle tied nil-nil with AC Milan last week in Milan, but this week they host PSG!
Paris Saint-Germain beat Borussia Dortmund at home 2-0, scoring both goals in the 2nd half to secure 3 points.
This Newcastle team has been playing well so far in the English Premier League, while PSG are coming off a weekend draw on the road.
Let's go over our best bets and prediction for this game!
Newcastle United vs PSG Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: St. James Park (Newcastle, England)
- Date: Wednesday, October 4th, 2023
- Kick Off: 3:00pm Eastern
Betting Odds
Draw No Bet
- Newcastle -110
- PSG -110
Moneyline
- Newcastle +155
- Draw +265
- PSG +160
Total
- Over 3 (+108)
- Under 3 (-128)
Newcastle United vs PSG Best Bets
PSG is currently on top of the group, with AC Milan and Newcastle 2 points behind. This is a crucial game for Newcastle being at home, because getting a win in Paris seems like a daunting task for this group.
Now, since the 1st Group Stage game, PSG has played twice. They beat Marseille 4-0 at home 5 days after beating Dortmund. The next weekend, they went on the road and were held to a scoreless draw against Clermont Foot, who have no business getting any points against PSG.
Overall, it was a bad showing for Kylian Mpabbe and company.
Now, Newcastle has had plenty of success. In three games since drawing with Milan, Newcastle beat Sheffield United 8-0 on the road, and Burnley 2-0 at home in English Premeir League play. They also beat Manchester City 1-0 in the Carabao Cup on a 53rd minute winner from Alexander Isak.
The Magpies are playing great soccer as of recently, and it wouldn't surprise me if they upset PSG tomorrow.
The Pick: Newcastle/PSG 1H Under 0.5 (+235) Bovada
Now before everyone raises their pitchforks about how often I make this bet, have you ever cashed one of these?
It is without a doubt the sweatiest 45 minutes ever, but boy is it crazy when it hits.
It's plenty of fun, but I've got this one backed by some trends as well so let's break it down.
For starters, both teams had scoreless first halves last UCL game, and Newcastle went entirely scoreless. This is a game Newcastle needs to win, but they know they talent PSG has. I think they come out a little cautious and get a feel for their opponent for the first 45 minutes.
Now, the total for this game is set at 3 for plus money, but the over 2.5 is juiced to -150.
However, the 1st half total at 1.5 is heavily juiced to the under. Bovada is offering +150 for 1H over 1.5, and making you pay -183 for the 1H under 1.5. They know this one is staying under, and I'll even bet that it's scoreless.
We cashed PSG's first half under last matchday, and we're going right back to it.
Newcastle has lost one game at home this year, a 2-1 contest to Liverpool. The other four showings, they've won them all, outscoring opponents 9-1 in those wins, however it is a small sample size.
Regardless, PSG has looked sluggish, but I think they do force Newcastle onto their heels in the 1H, forcing Newcastle to park the bus and play some defense.
I trust Newcastle to defend the PSG onslaught successfully, and maybe even sneak out a second half winner.
Lock in for a sweaty 45 minutes, and lets hope for a scoreless first half!
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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