Will Manchester be Red or Blue after today? Three Picks for today’s Manchester Derby

BettingThePitch

Written by: BettingThePitch

Published: Sun Sep 13, 2026, 7:00 am ET

Read Time: 6 minutes

Bruno Fernandes

EPL

Manchester United logo
Today11:30 am ET
Manchester City logo

Manchester United
Odds

Spread

Total

Moneyline

+0.5

-140

3

+100o

+213

Manchester City
Odds

Spread

Total

Moneyline

-0.25

-112

3

-118u

+120

See Picks & Statistics For The Game

Yesterday brought our first losing article in what feels like a while.

Liverpool and Fulham simply decided not to show up. I was especially surprised by how little Liverpool created, and the match never found that opening goal it desperately needed.

Meanwhile, Aston Villa and Unai Emery continue to be haunted by Oliver Glasner.

Forest picked up their first Premier League win of the season with a 2-1 victory at Villa Park. Not the Saturday we wanted, but we move on quickly.

Today, there's only one match I want to target.

It's the Manchester Derby!

Head over to our Soccer Picks Page for our expert's soccer analysis, or read my best bets below.

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Featured Plays

Manchester United vs. Manchester City

IT'S THE MANCHESTER DERBY!

What a matchup we have today before turning our attention to the start of the NFL season.

For me, this is unquestionably the Premier League match of the weekend.

These two have been fairly even in recent head-to-head meetings. However, form tends to matter a little less when the Manchester Derby arrives.

No matter how either side is playing, they usually show up for this one.

With that said, I do lean toward Manchester City today.

I believe they're the better club and have played really well, despite some of the criticism surrounding them.

City have created nearly 1.75 more expected goals per match than their opponents this season. They're controlling possession while consistently finding Erling Haaland in dangerous areas inside the box.

One thing I really like about Enzo Maresca is the more direct style he has brought to City.

Following a successful manager is never easy. However, following Pep Guardiola is an entirely different level of pressure.

So far, I think Maresca has handled it extremely well.

Obviously, City were beaten badly by Arsenal in the Community Shield before the Premier League season began.

However, I think a couple of things happened in that match.

First, Arsenal are just that good this season. Secondly, I don't think City were prepared for how aggressively the Gunners attacked them.

Since then, City have responded in a big way.

They've rattled off four straight victories, including a dominant Champions League performance during the week.

Some expected City to struggle on the road against a quality Porto side.

Instead, they controlled the match from start to finish and looked extremely comfortable doing it.

Additionally, the midfield additions have made a noticeable difference.

Anderson has helped City control possession, while Enzo Fernandez has added even more quality in the middle.

Then, of course, there's Haaland.

The Norwegian enters the derby with five goals across City's last three matches.

That's a scary thought for a Manchester United defense that has struggled with its marking.

United have also had issues defending set pieces and dealing with physical attackers inside the box.

Therefore, I expect Haaland to get his opportunities today.

At even money, I'm willing to back one of the world's best goalscorers in the biggest match of the weekend.

What Manchester United Team Will Show Up?

That's the million-dollar question.

One thing I will say about United is that they usually find another level for matches like this.

They've been known to play down to weaker opponents and then suddenly raise their level against the Premier League's best.

However, my biggest concern remains the back line.

Can this Manchester United defense actually slow down Haaland and company for 90 minutes?

United have conceded twice in every Premier League match this season.

That includes games against Hull City, Ipswich Town, and Everton.

Now, Manchester City are coming to Old Trafford.

That's quite the jump in attacking quality.

There's also a scheduling advantage that I think favors City.

Manchester City played their Champions League match two days before United played theirs. Therefore, the visitors enter this derby with two additional days of recovery.

United did handle a much weaker Sabah side on Thursday and were able to rotate several players.

Still, those extra days of rest are worth noting.

On the positive side, I've been impressed with Benjamin Sesko when he's gotten opportunities up top.

He gives United a different element compared to Matheus Cunha at the No. 9 position. More importantly, his movement can open pockets of space for teammates around the box.

That brings me to Bruno Fernandes.

If Manchester United are going to have success today, Bruno needs to be at his best.

He controls how this attack operates, and when he's on, United usually follow.

Fernandes has four goals and an assist across United's last three matches.

Although he didn't make the scoresheet against Everton, he was still heavily involved in the attack.

There's also a head-to-head trend that I love for this prop.

Bruno has been involved in a goal in each of the last five Manchester derbies where United have scored.

If United find the back of the net today, I expect their captain to be involved again.

Why I'm Backing Goals in the Derby

Ultimately, everything points me toward goals.

City are playing with confidence, Haaland is in form, and their attack should create plenty against this United defense.

However, I don't expect Manchester United to simply roll over at Old Trafford.

The derby tends to bring out another level from them.

Additionally, City can still leave openings when they commit numbers forward. United have enough attacking quality to take advantage if those opportunities appear.

That's why I don't want to overthink the side here.

Instead, I'd rather bet on both attacks getting opportunities and let the goals decide the winner.

The three-goal line also gives us some important protection.

If this finishes 2-1, we get our money back. However, I see plenty of paths toward four or more goals.

Give me Haaland, Bruno, and goals in the Manchester Derby.

Plays: Manchester United vs. Manchester City Over 3 Goals (-125), Erling Haaland Anytime Goalscorer (+100), Bruno Fernandes To Score or Assist (+110)

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BettingThePitch

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