NYCFC vs. Toronto FC MLS Picks and Predictions: July 31, 2026
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Fri Jul 31, 2026, 1:25 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
MLS
The MLS is back in action this weekend following Wednesday's All Star Game victory over the Liga MX All Stars. But before we have a full slate of matches on Saturday, we are blessed with one stand alone contest on Friday. Two teams from the Eastern Conference who are very familiar with one another go head to head at Yankee Stadium. However, things have been very lopsided recently. In this piece, our experts break down Friday's match, as New York City FC hosts Toronto FC. Let's dive into our favorite picks.
- MLS YTD
- 25-22-1 (53.2%)
- +4.36u
- Average Odds: +116
Our guy, Betting the Pitch, has his favorite Liga MX picks for tonight as well.
Check out the best odds on the market at our top online sportsbooks, for tons of picks in different soccer leagues across the world.
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC MLS Betting Insights
Daniel Salloi and the Toronto FC offense have been below average at best this MLS season
New York City has gotten the better of Toronto FC in at least their last five matches head to head. In those contests, NYC has won both low scoring and high scoring affairs. Since the break, New York City's offense has been clicking, beating Columbus 2-1 on the road, and taking down the Chicago Fire 3-1 at home.
Toronto's offense has been terrible all season long, but I will give some flowers to their defense who has made an effort in most matches. The question becomes, can they contain their hosts while also producing chances to score? Since the break, Toronto has played two scoreless draws, as well as a 2-1 defeat at DC United, where the hosts scored the winner on a stoppage time penalty kick. This Canadian side needs to figure out a way to keep up on the scoreboard.
Matchup Information – New York City FC vs. Toronto FC – July 31
- Venue & Location: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
- Date: Friday, July 31, 2026
- Kick Off: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: Apple TV
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel Sportsbook as of July 31, 2026, at 9:30 a.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus and 50 slot spins., and start betting at the sportsbook with the most competitive odds in the industry, and a wide variety of unique markets not offered anywhere else.
Moneyline
- NYCFC -153
- Draw +295
- Toronto FC +285
Spread
- NYCFC -1 (+120)
- Toronto FC +1 (-140)
Total
- Over 3 (+125)
- Under 3 (-145)
New York City FC vs. Toronto FC MLS Picks and Predictions
Nicolas Fernandez leads New York City FC with 12 goals and four assists so far this season
Best Bet: NYCFC ML/Under 4.5 (+110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Tonight, I'll be backing the hosts to win, once again, and for it to be somewhat low scoring. We were able to get New York City on the moneyline, paired with the under 4.5 total goals for plus money. I would be comfortable taking it down to 3.5 goals for around +175.
New York City's offense is clicking. They have netted five in their last two matches since the break, and they are allowing just 1.35 per match over the course of the season. Toronto's defense is allowing less than two goals per contest, but their offense is abysmal. This is a match where NYC flexes their muscle, doing whatever it takes to win, even it means grinding out a low scoring match.
In their three matches since the break, Toronto has lost the corner kick battle, the expected goals market, and has had less corner kicks in all three games. Tonight I see New York City, a team that is currently in fifth place of the Eastern Conference taking it to one of the worst in the entire MLS. Plus, this same game parlay would've cashed in four of the past five head to head matches. Don't overthink it.
Prediction: NYCFC Wins 2-0 (+750)
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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