Nations League Best Bets: Backing Goals in Croatia–England and Spain to Start Fast

BettingThePitch

Written by: BettingThePitch

Published: Sat Oct 03, 2026, 9:00 am ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Luka Modric and Croatia barely moved on to the Round of 32. Now they face Ronaldo and Portugal in Toronto. Portugal Croatia Picks

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We're down to just a handful of days remaining in the international break.

It's crazy to think three weeks have already passed. However, I'm excited to finish strong before we get back to club footy.

At this point, I'm also hoping we can get through these final matches without any more injuries.

We've already seen several players leave their national teams early. Hopefully, those dealing with injuries will be ready when club action resumes next week.

Unfortunately, that's always one of the biggest downsides to these extended international breaks.

For now, though, we still have some great matches ahead of us.

I have two totals I'm targeting today, so let's get into the plays!

Head over to our Soccer Picks Page for our expert's soccer analysis, or read my best bets below.

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Featured Plays

Croatia vs. England

These are two teams that can be difficult to predict at times.

However, I really like this matchup for goals.

Both of Croatia's matches during this break have finished with at least three goals. Additionally, eight of their last 10 matches overall have reached that mark.

They've been especially dangerous when playing in Rijeka.

Croatia have scored at least twice in six of their last seven matches played there. Now, they welcome an England team that has also been involved in plenty of high-scoring matches.

What makes this matchup interesting is how adaptable both sides can be.

Croatia and England are perfectly capable of controlling possession and grinding out a 1-0 win. However, both teams also have the attacking quality to thrive when matches become stretched.

That's why I think the opening goal will be massive.

If we get one early, this match could completely open up.

England have seen at least three goals in six of their last seven matches. More importantly, they've scored twice or more in nine of their last 10 road games.

We should also see Jude Bellingham return to the No. 10 role.

He has become a key piece of Thomas Tuchel's attack when given the freedom to push forward. With Bellingham operating behind the striker, England become much more dangerous around the box.

Still, Croatia have enough attacking quality to make England work on the other end.

I don't expect either team to simply sit back and settle for a point.

Instead, both should come out looking for all three.

Ultimately, this is a matchup featuring two teams that can adjust to whatever style the game demands.

If it turns into a fight, both attacks have enough firepower to answer.

Give me goals in Rijeka.

Play: Croatia vs. England Over 2.75 Goals (-120)

Spain vs. Czechia

Can Yamal and Spain stay in form today at home vs Czechia?

It's becoming very difficult to bet against this Spain team.

They're on an incredible unbeaten run and have scored three and four goals in their two matches during this break.

More importantly, Spain haven't missed a beat offensively since the World Cup.

You could even argue they look better right now.

Lamine Yamal is healthy and playing at an extremely high level. Meanwhile, the rest of this attack continues to create chances almost at will.

Now, Spain get a Czechia side heading in the opposite direction.

The visitors haven't won in their last five matches. Additionally, they lost both of their games at home during this international break.

Traveling to Spain while struggling for form is not exactly a recipe for success.

The underlying numbers make this matchup even more concerning.

Czechia allowed 1.84 expected goals against Croatia in their opening match. They also conceded 16 shots, five on target, and three big chances.

Then, things didn't get much better against England.

Czechia allowed another 1.50 expected goals while facing 22 shots. England put seven on target and created three more big chances.

Now they have to deal with Spain.

That's a significant step up considering how dominant the Spaniards have looked against both Croatia and England during this tournament.

Additionally, Spain get this matchup at home.

I expect the hosts to come out aggressively, just as they did against Croatia.

Spain scored inside the opening two minutes of that match and never looked back. If they strike early again, I expect them to keep attacking rather than taking their foot off the gas.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see three or four first-half goals here.

If you want to get a little cheeky, laddering Spain's first-half team total is certainly interesting.

However, I'm going to play this a little safer.

I'll take the full first-half total and let Spain do most, if not all, of the work.

Another fast start from the hosts should have us sitting pretty here.

Play: Spain vs. Czechia First-Half Over 1.5 Goals (-120)

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BettingThePitch

Just a guy who loves sports, soccer and beating the books!

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