Nations League Best Bets: Backing Fast Starts From Spain and England on the Final Day

BettingThePitch

Written by: BettingThePitch

Published: Tue Oct 06, 2026, 8:00 am ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

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The final day of the international break is here!

We finally saw France break out of their attacking slump, thanks to some world-class work from Michael Olise off the bench. Meanwhile, Turkey continue to create chances but simply can't seem to finish them.

Italy have also quietly put together a strong finish to the tournament.

For me, football is always better when Italy are involved and playing well.

Of course, there's still a long road ahead before the next World Cup. However, this break gave us a good look at the talent several countries have coming through.

Now, we finish with two of Europe's biggest nations back in action.

Spain face Croatia once again, while England welcome Czechia to Wembley.

I'm targeting first-half goals in both matches, so let's get into the plays!

Head over to our Soccer Picks Page for our expert's soccer analysis, or read my best bets below.

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Featured Plays

Croatia vs. Spain

Croatia need to show up today, not only for themselves but also for their country.

They're coming off one of the worst home defeats in their history after England put seven past them.

It was an extremely poor performance from a veteran Croatian side.

Because of that, I expect a much better effort today.

Unfortunately, the opponent doesn't get any easier.

Now they have to deal with a Spain team that simply refuses to slow down.

The Spaniards haven't missed a beat since the World Cup. If anything, they might be playing even better going forward right now.

They're creating chances at will and have been ruthless in front of goal throughout this tournament.

However, there is one positive for Croatia.

Spain have shown they can be vulnerable defensively during this break. Additionally, I believe Rodri could be rotated out of the starting lineup today.

If that happens, it leaves a massive hole in the Spanish midfield.

Croatia absolutely need to take advantage.

From a betting perspective, though, the first-half numbers are what really caught my attention.

Spain have scored exactly half of their goals during the opening 45 minutes this tournament. They're averaging 1.66 first-half goals through three matches.

Meanwhile, Croatia have allowed half of their goals before halftime.

They're conceding an average of two first-half goals per match during this break.

That's not exactly ideal when Lamine Yamal is waiting on the other side.

Yamal is playing at a world-class level right now and continues to create problems every time he touches the ball.

Still, I think Croatia can contribute as well.

They need a response after being embarrassed at home, and I expect them to come out aggressively.

As a result, we could get an open match from the opening whistle.

Spain's attacking form, Croatia's first-half defensive numbers, and the hosts' need to respond all point me toward goals.

At plus money, I'll take my chances on another fast start.

Play: Croatia vs. Spain First-Half Over 1.5 Goals (+110)

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England vs. Czechia

Harry Kane and England are looking to bring the World Cup home this summer - World Cup Futures

Harry Kane and England look to stay in form to end the break.

I don't think we can ignore what England just did to Croatia.

Seven goals.

This team is playing with a ton of confidence and swagger right now. More importantly, the attack looks extremely comfortable in Thomas Tuchel's system.

Jude Bellingham has been at the center of everything.

Honestly, he deserves to be mentioned among England's best attacking midfielders we've seen at the international level.

Bellingham has produced in both matches he's started during this tournament.

Now, he enters this matchup coming off an incredible three-assist, one-goal performance against Croatia.

I don't see him slowing down here.

Meanwhile, Czechia enter Wembley in terrible form.

They've lost all three group matches during this break. Additionally, they haven't won any of their last six games overall.

To be fair, being grouped with Spain and England certainly hasn't helped.

Still, the defensive numbers are concerning.

Czechia are allowing more than two goals per match during this tournament. Now, they have to face a red-hot England attack at Wembley.

That's a brutal assignment.

Czechia have actually started some matches relatively well. However, playing on the road in this environment is an entirely different challenge.

England have also done plenty of their damage early during this break.

They just scored four first-half goals on the road against Croatia.

Because of that, I expect another aggressive start from the hosts.

England can build an early lead and then begin rotating players in the second half. With club football returning soon, Tuchel should want to protect his key players if the game is under control.

That makes the first half the spot I want to attack.

If England carry over even a little of what we saw against Croatia, there should be plenty of chances early.

Once again, we're getting plus money.

I'll take it.

Play: England First-Half Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+130)

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BettingThePitch

Just a guy who loves sports, soccer and beating the books!

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