LAFC vs. Philadelphia Union (MLS Cup 2022) Betting: Will LAFC reach the MLS mountaintop?

Eddie Griffin

After finishing the Major League Soccer regular season as the league’s two best teams, LAFC and the Philadelphia Union have seen off their playoff challengers to set up a clash of the titans for the MLS Cup crown on Saturday afternoon in Los Angeles.

Both teams are vying for the MLS Cup for the first time, having gone no further than the conference finals previously.

The Union have been one of the best teams in the league over the last few seasons but couldn’t translate it into playoff success. But after a heartbreaking loss to NYCFC in last year’s Eastern Conference final, they got their revenge in this year’s Eastern final, downing the reigning champions 3-1 last Sunday.

LAFC started their MLS tenure brightly, winning the Supporters’ Shield and reaching the Western Conference final in their second season in 2019. They couldn’t keep up that momentum though, losing early in the playoffs in 2020 and missing out altogether last year.

But LAFC’s greatest heights have been reached in coach Steve Cherundolo’s first season at the helm, who led the club to the Supporters’ Shield and a league-best 21 wins this season. And with a 3-0 win over Austin FC in the Western Conference final last Sunday, they are now a win away from a championship.

Los Angeles FC vs. Philadelphia Union Matchup Information and Betting Odds – MLS Cup 2022

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: Los Angeles FC (21 wins, four draws, nine losses, 67 points, 1st in the Western Conference, winner of the Supporters’ Shield) vs. Philadelphia Union (19 wins, ten draws, five losses, 1st in the Eastern Conference)
  • Venue & Location: Banc of California Stadium (Los Angeles, California)
  • Date: Saturday, November 5, 2022
  • Game Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time (12:30 p.m. local time)
  • How to Watch LAFC vs. Philadelphia Union: FOX

LAFC vs. Philadelphia Union Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel as of Friday, November 4 at 5:30 p.m. Eastern.

Moneyline

  • LAFC to win: -135
  • Draw: +280
  • Philadelphia Union to win: +290

Total Goals Over/Under

  • Over 2.5 goals (-170)
  • Under 2.5 goals (+138)

Both Teams to Score

  • Yes -182
  • No +142

To Lift the Cup

  • LAFC -250
  • Philadelphia Union +198

LAFC vs. Philadelphia Union Tale of the Tape

Regular Season Numbers

LAFC

  • Goals Scored: 66 (1st in the Western Conference, 2nd in MLS)
  • Goals Allowed: 38 (2nd in the Western Conference, 3rd in MLS)
  • Goal Difference: +28 (1st in the Western Conference, 2nd in MLS)

Philadelphia Union

  • Goals Scored: 72 (1st in the Eastern Conference, 1st in MLS)
  • Goals Allowed: 26 (1st in the Eastern Conference, 1st in MLS)
  • Goal Difference: +46 (1st in the Eastern Conference, 1st in MLS)

How Each Team Got Here

LAFC

  • defeated Los Angeles Galaxy 3-2
  • defeated Austin FC 3-0

Philadelphia Union

  • defeated FC Cincinnati 1-0
  • defeated New York City FC 3-1

Head-to-Head Results (2022 Season)

  • May 7: LAFC 2-2 Philadelphia Union

LAFC vs. Philadelphia Union Prediction and Best Bets

LAFC vs. Philadelphia Union Prediction: LAFC to win

LAFC vs. Philadelphia Union Best Bets: LAFC to win & both teams to score (Best Value: +225 at Caesars Sportsbook) & LAFC/Philadelphia Union over 3.5 goals (Best Value: over 3.5 @ +154 at FanDuel)

Though these two teams finished with the same number of points in the regular season, LAFC won the Supporters’ Shield by virtue of winning more games.

Them doing so is a rather good omen for their chances to claim the cup. The Supporters’ Shield winner has reached the MLS Cup only eight times, so it is a major accomplishment for LAFC to even be here.

But when the Supporters’ Shield champion has been one of the last two teams standing, results have been very, very good.

To date, the only team to win the Supporters’ Shield and reach the MLS Cup but fall at the hurdle is the 2003 Chicago Fire. That year, they edged Landon Donovan and the San Jose Earthquakes for the Supporters’ Shield that season but lost to Quakes 4-2 in MLS Cup 2003.

That game remains the highest-scoring MLS Cup, but with the league’s two most prolific teams meeting for the title this year, that mark could very well be threatened.

In May, they played out a thriller at this same venue in which the Union led twice through goals by Daniel Gazdag and Julian Carranza, only for LAFC to hit back each time through Kwadwo Opoku and Franco Escobar.

Backing goals for a final is against my better judgment, given that finals can often be low-scoring games. But I’m expecting some excitement and goals in this match, with LAFC coming out on top in their home venue to take their first title.

LAFC vs. Philadelphia Union Betting Trends

  • LAFC’s clean sheet against Austin FC in the Western Conference final was just their tenth in 36 games this season (nine in 34 games in the regular season, one in two games in the MLS Cup playoffs).
  • The Philadelphia Union have been held scoreless just five times in MLS competition this season.
  • LAFC has scored three or more goals 12 times in 36 MLS games this season, ten of which have come at Banc of California Stadium (in 19 games).
  • In LAFC’s games at Banc of California Stadium this season, they have scored 45 goals (2.37 goals per game) and allowed 17 (0.9 goals allowed per game).
  • In Philadelphia’s games away from home, they have scored 23 goals (1.35 goals per game) and allowed 17 goals (one goal allowed per game).

Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.