Gold Cup Semifinals, Mexico vs Jamaica: Prediction & Best Bets
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Wed Jul 12, 2023, 1:15 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
soccer
Mexico and Jamaica are in Las Vegas to face off in the Gold Cup Semifinal match! This is the later of the two games, as the United States take on Panama earlier in San Diego.
We have our prediction and best bets for this 2023 CONCACAF Gold Cup semifinal.
Here we will breakdown this specific game, but for a full breakdown of the entire tournament, head over to our 2023 Gold Cup Betting Guide!
Check out our expert's thoughts on our Picks Page!
How Did We Get Here?
Mexico solidified themselves as a contender in the Group Stage, winning 2 out of their 3 matches. Mexico beat Honduras 4-0, they defeated Haiti 3-1, and actually lost to 2022 FIFA World Cup host Qatar 1-0. However, Mexico had already clinched the group.
In the quarterfinals, Mexico took down Costa Rica by a score of 2-0, moving on to to the semis.
Jamaica had a tough task being in the same group as the United States, but they were able to play them to a 1-1 draw and earn a point. After that, Jamaica would dominate the other two teams in Group A, but placed 2nd due to the goal differential tiebreaker with the US.
Jamaica would face Group D Winner Guatemala in the quarterfinals and defeated them 1-0. After a scoreless first half, Jamaica found the back of the net in the 51st minute to advance and face Mexico.
Tonight in Las Vegas, Mexico and Jamaica face off for a chance at the 2023 CONCACAF Gold Cup title.
Mexico vs Jamaica Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas, NV)
- Date: Wednesday, July 12th, 2023
- Kick Off: 10:00pm Eastern
- Broadcast: FOX Sports 1
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada.
Spread
- Mexico -1 (+125)
- Jamaica +1 (-150)
Moneyline (After 90 Minutes)
- Mexico -150
- Draw +260
- Jamaica +460
Total
- Over 2 (-125)
- Under 2 (+105)
Mexico vs Jamaica Prediction
While Mexico is clearly the favorite, there has been some steam coming in on Jamaica. Mexico opened as a -165 favorite and are now down to -150 on most books.
I lean with Mexico to continue to dominate this competition, however, Jamaica does worry me.
After drawing 1-1 to the United States to start the Gold Cup, Jamaica dominated the rest of group stage and took down another group winner in the quarterfinals.
While Jamaica should keep this game competitive, ultimately I think Mexico will advance.
Here's where my heads at from a betting perspective.
Mexico vs Jamaica Best Bets
Mexico/Jamaica 1H Under 0.5 (+140)
One of my favorite bets in soccer, the old 45 minute sweat.
The betting lines tell me Vegas thinks this is going to be a defensive, low scoring game. Most soccer matches have totals set at 2.5 and simply adjust the juice.
For them to bring this total down to 2 makes me think we see this Jamaica team come extremely defensive. Jamaica will try to push for a 0-0 game as long as they possibly can, however, I think Mexico will find a winner late in the 2nd half.
I think Mexico wins this 1-0 with a goal in the last 20 minutes of the match after wearing down the Jamaican defense.
Let's sweat for a scoreless 1st half.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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