NHL: Lightning vs. Leafs Picks and Odds | March 7, 2026
Written by: Nick Zanghi
Last Update: Tue Mar 24, 2026, 6:09 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Divisional matchup tonight and the puck's dropping in Canada. The Tampa Bay Lightning head north to take on the Toronto Maple Leafs. These two teams met a little over a week ago and the Lightning took the W, 4-2.
Tampa Bay is 38-18-4 this season and are first in the Atlantic Division. They come into this game on a four-game losing streak after another loss Thursday to the Jets. The Lightning are 6-4-0 in their last ten games, 19-8-4 on the road, and 10-4-1 in divisional games.
They rank in the top of the league for goals scored per game and shooting percentage. Tampa is in the middle for shots on goal per game and power play conversion. Overall, this team has prided themselves on their offense for almost a decade now.
On defense, they're really shining this year. They rank in the top ten of the league for goals allowed and shots on goal allowed per game. The Lightning don't play smart hockey and commit seven penalties per game on average. Worst in the league.
Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to get the start. He is 28-10-3 this season with a 2.24 GAA and a .914 save percentage. Vasi is second in the league in wins and second in GAA.
Check out the odds for this matchup and other NHL games at the best online sportsbooks.
Toronto will try and break six-game losing streak at home tonight
Maples Leafs forward Auston Matthews works the outside of the offensive zone vs. the Lightning.
The Leafs are 27-25-11 this year and seventh in the Atlantic Division. They come into this game on a six-game losing streak after another loss to the Rangers on Thursday. Toronto is 3-5-2 in their last ten games, 16-10-7 at home and 6-10-3 in divisional games.
It's been a rough year for this squad and even though they're only eight points out of a playoff spot – it's safe to say their season is over. They moved a few guys out today for some draft picks, but nothing worth even talking about.
Offensively this year, they just can't get it going. Although they rank in the middle of the league for goals scored and shots on goal per game, they're not reaching their potential. We all know how loaded this offense is and it's missing this year.
Defense is an even bigger problem. They're rank fourth worst in the league for goals allowed and allow the most shots on goal per game in the league. Toronto doesn't commit many penalties and kill off 83% of the ones they do commit.
In net, we're expected to see Anthony Stolarz. He is 7-8-3 this season with a 3.05 GAA and a .891 save percentage. Let's check out the odds and get into the Lightning vs. Leafs picks.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Odds and Game Information
Lightning vs. Leafs Betting Odds – March 7
| Team | Puck Line | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | -1.5 (+135) | -175 | Over 6.5 (+100) |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | +1.5 (-160) | +150 | Under 6.5 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of Lucky Rebel – Get a $1,250 deposit bonus & 50 Slot Spins when you sign up
Lightning vs. Leafs Game Information
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
- Date: Saturday March 7, 2026
- Puck Drop: 7 p.m. EST
- TV: The Spot, NHL Network
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Prediction
Leafs forward Bobby McMann takes a wide-open shot on Lightning goalie Jonas Johansson.
Lightning vs. Leafs Picks and Predictions: Game Total Under 6.5 Goals (-120) Get a $1,250 deposit bonus & 50 Slot Spins when you sign up with Lucky Rebel
Both teams are in the crapper, so it's hard to make a pick. I definitely lean with the Lightning here against a lost Leafs team. Someone needs to bounce back, and I think Tampa hands Toronto their seventh L in a row.
For the real POD, we're going with the under. Both teams haven't been playing well, and this could easily be a 2 or 3 total goal game. I expect a sloppy game here which will also keep the score on the lower end.
I think Stolarz gets peppered in this one. The Leafs allow to many shots and the Lightning do have a powerful offense when they're on. I see that happening tonight – the line should be around 28-29 saves for -125 and he's going to see over 30+ shots.
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Nick Zanghi
Nick Zanghi is an avid hockey fan who loves to bet on the NHL Props. He has also found a liking for the WNBA. Born and raised on LI, NZ is a lifelong Islanders #isles fan and a new NY Liberty fan #LIGHTITUPNYL. When not watching or attending sporting events, he enjoys grilling and time with his wife and kids.
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