Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers vs Bills, Prediction: Buffalo Handles Business
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Thu Oct 26, 2023, 11:13 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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We're back with some Thursday Night Football as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Buffalo Bills in Orchard Park.
Tampa Bay comes off two straight home losses, and now face a Buffalo Bills team coming off a loss as well.
The Bills are 3-0 in Highmark Stadium this season, and 2-0 coming off a loss away from home.
Let's break this one down and find our best bets in tonight's game!
Buccaneers vs Bills Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
- Date: Thursday, October 26th, 2023
- Kick Off: 8:15pm Eastern
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Betting Odds
Spread
- Buccaneers +9.5 (-110)
- Bills -9.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Buccaneers +345
- Bills -470
Total
- Over 43.5 (-105)
- Under 43.5 (-115)
Free NFL Picks: Buccaneers vs Bills
After a 3-1 start involving two road wins, the Bucs have come back down to Earth, losing two straight at home. Facing the Bills at home will be no small task, and I think their best hope is playing for a cover.
I see the Bills dominating Tampa Bay from start to finish, even with a banged up defense. Baker Mayfield has only produced 19 points over the last two weeks, and the Bills average nearly 34 points per home game.
After putting up just two TDs against the Giants last game at home, I could see Buffalo's offense exploding in this game.
With that being said, I don't see value in the prices of the spread or total, so I'll stick to props in this game.
Best NFL Prop Bets: Player Props
Baker Mayfield over 10.5 (+100) Bovada
Can Mayfield lead the Bucs to a road upset?
Baker isn't afraid of a little contact, as we've seen him fired up after taking a hit. Plus he's not afraid to scramble, and I think he might have to tonight. Lucky for us, sacks do not count against his rushing yards, so I think Baker could find 11 on the ground tonight.
Buffalo's defense has not contained QBs well the past three weeks.
- Mac Jones: 3 Rushes for 11 Yards
- Tyrod Taylor: 5 Rushes for 24 Yards
- Trevor Lawrence: 7 Rushes for 31 Yards
And as stated, Baker isn't afraid to run. He's currently the Buccaneers 2nd leading rusher, with 99 yards on 28 carries in 6 games, giving an average of 4.7 carries for 16.5 yards per game.
He's cleared this line in 4/6 games this season, clearing it in nearly one run 3 separate times.
Buffalo's defense allows 128.3 rushing yards per game, ranking 23rd in the league, but I do think Tampa Bay plays from behind. I think Baker sees plenty of drop backs, but is forced to make plays with his legs on more than one occasion.
Line shop as always, as I believe you can find this at 9.5 on some books.
Stefon Diggs 8+ Receptions (+110) BetOnline
Diggs is Allen's clear favorite target
Diggs' line is at 6.5 juiced to about (-145) if you are interested in paying the juice man. In this one, I'll get a little greedy and take him to get at least 8 for plus money.
Diggs has seen double digit targets in 5/7 games this season, including three straight. He's seeing an average of 11 targets per game, and catches 7.9 passes per game.
He's caught 8+ passes in 4/6 games this season, and had 6 on 12 targets last Sunday. Josh Allen should be motivated to get his top receiver involved early for some easy catches to move the sticks.
Tampa Bay ranks 27th in passing yards allowed per game, giving up nearly 250 air yards. Plus, they are 25th in passing attempts allowed per game, letting opponents throw over 36 times per game.
While I don't think Josh Allen has to throw the ball that much, it's clear that the weak part of the Buccaneers defense is their secondary.
I'm looking for some quick slants and designed screens for Diggs to make some easy catches.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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