Thursday Night Football: Broncos vs Chiefs, Best Bets: This One Could Get Ugly
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Wed Oct 11, 2023, 4:45 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
nfl
The Denver Broncos are limping their way into Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City Chiefs.
This AFC West Showdown is on national television, and it could get ugly.
The Broncos haven't beaten the Chiefs since 2015 in Arrowhead. Kansas City has claimed the last 15 straight victories.
There's no way Russell Wilson and Sean Payton pull off this upset, right?
Let's break it down.
Broncos vs Chiefs Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
- Date: Thursday, October 12th, 2023
- Kick Off: 8:15pm Eastern
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Betting Odds
Spread
- Broncos +10 (-105)
- Chiefs -10 (-115)
Moneyline
- Broncos +410
- Chiefs -585
Total
- Over 47.5 (-110)
- Under 47.5 (-110)
Free NFL Picks: Broncos vs Chiefs
Can Sean Payton and Russell Wilson figure it out this season?
This 4-1 Chiefs team looks very solid and is doing whatever it takes to win games.
The 1-4 Broncos are a different story. They could very easily be 0-5 but had a miraculous comeback against the Bears in Week 4.
The Broncos only allowed 17 points to the Raiders in Week 1, but since then they have given up 35, 70, 28, and 31. That isn't good for a team that is supposed to rely on that side of the ball.
I think we see something similar to the Bears beatdown in Week 3. This one could get very ugly.
I'll take the Chiefs -10 at Bovada where they haven't added the hook like the rest of the market. I am a little afraid of the backdoor with it being a divisional game, but trust the Chiefs to run it up.
The Pick: Chiefs -10 (-115) Bovada
Bonus Pick: Broncos 1H TT Under 9.5 (-135)
Paying a little bit of juice here, but I'd lay up to 150 on this. Yes, 10 points isn't very many, but this Chiefs defense hasn't allowed a team to score 2 TDs in the 1st half once this year. Plus, they didn't allow Jacksonville or Chicago to find the endzone in the 1st half.
They allowed just 7 1H points to the Lions, 6 to the Jags, 10 to the Jets, and 13 to the Vikings last week, but arguably this Broncos offense is the worst of those squads.
The Chiefs D is 4th in the NFL allowing just 7.6 1H Points, while the Broncos O has managed 13.4.
I lean with the Chiefs to come out rocking on this short week and shut down Denver in the 1H.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets
Justin Watson over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-124) Bovada
Justin Watson has a reception in every game this season.
This line is disrespectful for Watson.
Dating back to last season, he's cleared this line in 6 of his L9 contests. So far this season, he's cleared in 4/5, and he's soared over the number.
He's posted 45, 62, 51, and 56 in those 4 games. Watson has caught at least one ball in every game this year, and has cleared this line 3 times on just 3 catches.
He's also had a 30+ yard grab in 3/5 games, and a 25+ yarder in 4/5.
It's just a matter of time before this guy finds the endzone, so I'll sprinkle on his TD at +500.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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