Texans vs Dolphins Prediction & Picks (Week 12): Will Miami move a win closer to ending playoff drought?

Eddie Griffin

The next few weeks will be key to whether or not the Miami Dolphins will make the NFL playoffs for the first time since 2016. But before a season-defining stretch of road games, the Dolphins must not get caught looking ahead in their Week 12 matchup with the Houston Texans.

Following their matchup with Houston, Miami will visit the Packers, Chargers, and Bills.

A win over the Texans will help the Dolphins keep pace atop the AFC East with Buffalo, who they beat at hoe in Week 3.

The Texans have dropped five straight games since picking up their lone win of the season, with the last four coming against teams who, like the Dolphins, are in the playoff hunt.

Will that experience help Houston challenge Miami? Read on for our Texans vs Dolphins prediction, as well as the bets we recommend for this matchup.

Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: Houston Texans (1-8-1, 1-4 away, 4th in the AFC South) vs Miami Dolphins (7-3, 4-1 home, 2nd in the AFC East)
  • Venue & Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
  • Date: Sunday, November 26, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 pm ET
  • How to Watch Texans vs Dolphins: CBS

Texans vs Dolphins Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel as of Saturday, November 25, 2022, at 7:45 pm ET. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Spread

  • Houston Texans +14 (-105)
  • Miami Dolphins -14 (-115)

Over/Under

  • Over 46.5 (-118)
  • Under 46.5 (-104)

Moneyline

  • Houston Texans +610
  • Miami Dolphins -900

Will Quarterback Change Provide Spark for Houston?

There are a lot of reasons why the Texans are 1-8-1, so their issues don’t lay solely at the feet of Davis Mills.

But the second-year quarterback already has more interceptions through 10 games (11) than he had in 13 games last season (10), is averaging fewer yards per pass (6.5 this year, down from 6.8 last year), and his completion percentage has dropped significantly (61.9 percent this year, down from 66.8 percentage last year).

In last Sunday’s 23-10 loss to the Washington Commanders, Mills went 19 for 33 for 169 yards and two interceptions, and he was sacked a season-high five times.

In comes backup Kyle Allen, who has 17 career NFL starts but hasn’t started since Week 8 of the 2020 season, when he started for the Carolina Panthers against the Minnesota Vikings and suffered a season-ending broken ankle.

Allen’s most recent action came last season with Washington, as he completed 12 of 19 passes for 120 yards and a touchdown (with no interceptions) in two games.

Will the change have an impact? The Dolphins are tied for 23rd in the NFL in sacks (20), tied for 26th in interceptions (four), and 20th in yards allowed per pass (7.3). So, there is perhaps some vulnerability to exploit.

Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins Prediction and Picks

Texans vs Dolphins Prediction: Dolphins to win

Texans vs Dolphins Picks: Dolphins team total over (Best Value: over 30.5 @ -110 at Caesars Sportsbook) & Dolphins to cover in the first half (Best Value: -7.5 @ -105 at BetMGM)

While the above numbers aren’t great, the Texans aren’t likely to be in the game enough for whatever Allen does to really matter.

Miami’s bye week may have come at a bad time given how they had things rolling going into it, but with some time to rest and rejuvenate ahead of a big several weeks, they’ll be fresh and ready to take care of business.

As I’ve mentioned before, I typically don’t love double-digit spreads, and I don’t here either, even though my Texans vs Dolphins prediction is all in on the home team.

If the Dolphins continue to be as productive as they were before the bye, when they put up 30+ points in three straight games, the Texans will not be able to keep up. But I’m much more comfortable going with the over for their team total instead of the spread, in addition to the first half cover.

Other Texans vs Dolphins Content at Betting News

  • Texans vs Dolphins Consensus Picks, Score Projections & Betting Stats

Other NFL Week 12 Content

Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.