Sunday Night Football: Cowboys vs 49ers, Odds & Top Picks: Defense Wins This Game
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Fri Oct 06, 2023, 3:44 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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We have quite the showdown for Sunday Night Football, as the 3-1 Dallas Cowboys head west to take on the 4-0 San Francisco 49ers.
Two of the best teams in the league, and arguably the top 2 defenses square off for battle on the national stage.
The Cowboys turned it around after losing to the Cardinals. They handled the Patriots in a 38-3 routing, but they are in San Francisco for this game.
The 49ers are perfect this year, scoring 30+ in all four games, and holding opponents to an average of 14.5 points. The 49ers have pretty much won every game by two scores, Sean McVay kicked a meaningless field goal as time expired to lose by 7, but this Dallas defense will be tough to beat.
Let's talk about the best bets in this game!
Cowboys vs 49ers Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, CA)
- Date: Sunday, October 7th, 2023
- Kick Off: 8:20pm Eastern
- Broadcast: NBC
Betting Odds
Spread
- Cowboys +3.5 (-115)
- 49ers -3.5 (-105)
Moneyline
- Cowboys +165
- 49ers -195
Total
- Over 45 (-105)
- Under 45 (-115)
Free NFL Picks: Cowboys vs 49ers
Even without DB Trevon Diggs, this Cowboys defense is still ferocious. But San Francisco's might even be better.
Let's talk some defensive numbers.
Opponent Yards per Play
- 49ers 3rd (4.5)
- Cowboys 5th (4.7)
Opponent Yards per Game
- 49ers 5th (284.3)
- Cowboys 2nd (259.8)
Opponent Points per Game
- 49ers 3rd (14.5)
- Cowboys 1st (10.3)
I mean, it's just ridiculous. However, I think the 49ers have a slight edge in this one.
Here's two more stats that I think separate San Francisco from the Cowboys.
Opponent Yards per Rush Attempt
- 49ers 11th (3.9)
- Cowboys 26th (4.6)
Opponent Yards per Completion
- 49ers 2nd (7.6)
- Cowboys 15th (9.5)
I think the 49ers win this game. I think they absolutely shutdown Dallas' offense, and run the trenches. The Cowboys defense is stout, but you can't give up 4.6 yards per attempt to Christian McCaffrey.
Brock Purdy is known for throwing screens and easy outs to his WR, and nearly allowing a first down every completion will hinder the Cowboys. As chalky as it seems, I like the 49ers, and I'm not scared of the hook.
The Pick: 49ers -3.5 (-105) Bovada
Best NFL Prop Bets: Cowboys vs 49ers
Deebo Samuel over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-113) BetOnline
Deebo did a whole lot of cardio on Sunday.
He played 46 offensive snaps, Purdy threw the ball 21 times, and Samuel didn't see a single target. The 49ers dominated, but do you think that might've been mentioned this week?
My point is, I think Deebo sees some scripted action this week. Without Diggs, the Cowboys defensive is susceptible to screens and touch passes, two types of plays that Shanahan dials up for Deebo.
This defensive allows 9.5 yards per completion, so I like Deebo to help get over this number with his legs. He averages 35 YAC per game, and had 78 against the Giants two weeks ago.
Look for Deebo to catch at least 3 balls designed for him to get behind some blockers and find some open field.
I like his receptions at over 4.5 at plus money, however in this spot, I'm more confident in 49 yards from him.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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