Steelers vs Browns, Prediction: Cleveland Defends the Dawg Pound
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Sun Nov 19, 2023, 10:28 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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The gauntlet that is this year's AFC North has a fantastic matchup once again on Sunday, as the Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers in a Week 11 contest.
With both teams sitting at 6-3, two games behind the Baltimore Ravens, this is a crucial game for both squads.
Deshaun Watson is out for the season, so the Browns have elected to go with Dorian Thompson-Robinson as their QB1.
Will he be able to defend their home field? Or can Mike Tomlin and Kenny Pickett pull off the road divisional win?
Steelers vs Browns Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium (Cleveland, OH)
- Date: Sunday, November, 19th, 2023
- Kick Off: 1:00pm Eastern
- Broadcast: CBS
Betting Odds
Spread
- Steelers +1.5 (-110)
- Browns -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Steelers +100
- Browns -120
Total
- Over 33 (-110)
- Under 33 (-110)
Free NFL Picks: Steelers vs Browns
Arguably one of the best coaches in the NFL, Tomlin could very well scheme up a win with his defense. Especially against a rookie QB.
Although DTR has seen the field this year, Pittsburgh's defense is electric and could mess up his rhythm.
I don't really have a feel for who wins this game, I'll admit the total seems super low, even for two great defenses and two mediocre offenses, but I'm just going to stick to props in this game.
Luckily I've got two that I love for Sunday.
Free NFL Player Props: Steelers vs Browns
Amari Cooper over 45.5 Receiving Yards (+100) Bovada
Let's talk some numbers, per usual.
Coopers has cleared 46+ Yards in 6/9 games this season, including three straight games. He's had 100+ receiving yards in 3 of those games as well.
He's seen 25 targets and 17 receptions in his L3 games, plus he's cleared in 3/5 games at home this season.
Now, with Thompson-Robinson at the helm, Cooper has cleared in 2/3 games this season, posting 116 and 89 yards in those contests.
Pittsburgh's defense is great, but every team has their weakness. The Steelers are 27th in Passing Yards per game, giving up nearly 250 per game. They're also 23rd in Pass Attempts, letting QBs throw almost 36 times a contest.
Cooper has cleared this line in all 3 games against Pittsburgh, plus he went for 7 receptions and 101 yards last time against the Steelers at home. At Pittsburgh in Week 2, Cooper had 7 catches for 90 yards on 10 targets.
I see him having another big day on Sunday.
David Njoku over 3.5 Receptions (-105) Bovada
Njoku has come alive for the Browns offense in recent weeks.
He's caught 2 passes in every game this year, and has cleared 4+ receptions in 7/9 games. He's also cleared this line in 4 straight contests. Njoku has also caught 4 passes in 3/5 games at home this season.
In his L4 games, the Browns TE has seen 32 targets and caught 19 passes, averaging 8 targets and nearly 5 receptions in that stretch.
With DTR has his passer, Njoku has cleared in all three games, totaling 19 targets and 14 receptions. He's also seen an increase in number of targets in each game with DTR, growing from 4, then 7, to 8 targets.
Njoku has cleared this line in 4/5 against the Steelers, including four straight.
I touched on the Steelers iffy pass defense, but let's see how some other Tight Ends have done against them this year.
- GB: 2 receptions, 64 yards
- TEN: 3 receptions, 28 yards
- JAX: 10 recepetions, 88 yards
- BAL: 6 receptions, 65 yards
- HOU: 3 receptions, 42 yards
- SF: 3 receptions, 19 yards
In Week 2 against the Steelers, Njoku caught all 4 targets for 48 yards.
This should be easy for him at home.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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