Ugly at Arrowhead: Chiefs vs. Colts – NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (9/20)
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Fri Sep 18, 2026, 6:31 pm ET
Read Time: 7 minutes
nfl
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46
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+250
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You've found my Colts vs. Chiefs NFL expert picks and predictions for Sunday Night Football! The Chiefs stay home at Arrowhead Stadium after a dominant Week 1 win, but the Colts are desperate to avoid an 0-2 start, and this game may not be as explosive as the market expects.
Kansas City beat Denver 31-10 behind a massive performance from Kenneth Walker, while Indianapolis struggled offensively in its opener against Baltimore. Still, the Colts vs. Chiefs prediction comes down to whether Kansas City's rushing attack can stay hot and whether either passing game can find another level in primetime.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more for Week 2, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page. Now, let's dive into my Chiefs-Colts expert picks for Sunday night on Sept. 20.
Chiefs vs. Colts Expert Picks for Sunday Night Football (Sept. 20)
The Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites at home, with the total set at 46.5 points. Kansas City should be favored. Arrowhead is a brutal place to play, Patrick Mahomes is back, and the Chiefs looked dominant in their opening win.
But I am not sure we should take too much from the Chiefs' 31-point output against Denver.
Kenneth Walker was fantastic in his Kansas City debut, rushing for 173 yards and a touchdown while adding another score as a receiver. He broke tackles, created explosive runs, and looked like the kind of player who can carry an offense when the passing game is still figuring things out.
At the same time, Denver's defense was a mess. The Broncos missed an absurd number of tackles, and a unit that was expected to be tough, disciplined, and reliable looked anything but that in Week 1.
That is not meant to take anything away from Walker. He was excellent. But it is fair to wonder how much of the Chiefs' offensive explosion came from his performance and how much came from a Denver defense that completely fell apart.
Mahomes looked good running the football, especially considering how quickly he returned from a major knee injury. But Kansas City's passing game was not fully in sync. Mahomes and his receivers had some timing issues, and the Chiefs did not consistently generate explosive plays through the air.
Colts vs. Chiefs Date, Time & Location
Indianapolis did not exactly inspire confidence offensively, either. Daniel Jones struggled in his return from injury, and the Colts ranked near the bottom of the league in passing efficiency during Week 1. The Colts want to run the football when possible, control the pace, and avoid putting too much on Jones in obvious passing situations.
That is a recipe for a slower Sunday Night Football game.
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium; Kansas City, Missouri
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:20 PM ET
- TV: NBC
Colts vs. Chiefs Odds: Spread, Moneyline & Total
Odds via BetOnline.ag, an industry leader in the sports betting world:
- Indianapolis Colts +6.5 (-104)
- Indianapolis Colts Moneyline (+245)
- Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (-116)
- Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline (-300)
- Over 46.5 (-105)
- Under 46.5 (-115)
Colts vs. Chiefs Preview: NFL Predictions for Week 2
The Chiefs should have a clear advantage in this game. Kansas City is at home, has the better quarterback, and has a defense capable of putting Jones in difficult spots.
But the Colts do not have to win this game for the under to make sense. They need to tackle better than Denver, keep the game relatively close, and prevent Walker from turning every routine rushing attempt into an explosive play.
I cannot imagine any NFL defense putting on a worse tackling display than Denver did in Week 1. Indianapolis has defensive questions of its own, but the Colts should at least be able to limit some of the easy yardage Walker found against the Broncos.
If the Chiefs are forced to throw more frequently than they did in Week 1, there is reason to believe the game could get a little uglier. Kansas City did not look overly sharp through the air, and Mahomes was most dangerous when he was scrambling and creating outside of structure.
The Colts' offense presents its own problems for the over. Jones needs to be more efficient, but Indianapolis is likely to lean on its run game and shorten the game whenever possible. That can create fewer possessions, fewer chances for explosive plays, and a better overall setup for an under.
Colts vs. Chiefs Expert Pick: Under 46.5 Points
Best Bet: Colts vs. Chiefs Under 46.5 (-115) | BetOnline.ag
Yes, my favorite Colts vs. Chiefs pick is under 46.5 points.
The Chiefs scored 31 points last week, so I understand why the total is sitting in the mid-40s. But Kansas City's offense was largely powered by Walker and a Denver defense that missed tackle after tackle. In fact, Denver ranked dead last in defensive EPA per play in Week 1.
Walker deserves credit for what he did, but the Broncos deserve blame for the way they played. It was one of those games where every missed tackle felt like it became an extra 10 yards. The Colts are not a defensive juggernaut, but I expect them to be more fundamentally sound. That alone should make it tougher for Kansas City to repeat its Week 1 offensive output.
On the other side, Indianapolis has not shown enough offensively to make me want to bet on a shootout. Jones struggled in his first game back, and the Colts were near the bottom of the league in passing efficiency. They should want to lean on the run game, control the clock, and avoid giving Mahomes extra possessions.
Kansas City should win. I am not calling for an upset. But I expect a fairly methodical game. Give me Colts vs. Chiefs under 46.5 points.
Chiefs vs. Colts Player Prediction: Kenneth Walker 80+ Rushing Yards
Best Bet: Kenneth Walker 80+ Rushing Yards | BetOnline.ag
Kenneth Walker 80-plus rushing yards is another prop I like for Sunday Night Football. Walker was incredible in Week 1, and expecting another 173-yard performance would be foolish. Denver's tackling was too poor to treat that stat line as a baseline.
But the volume is what I want to bet on.
Kansas City has every reason to keep Walker involved. The Chiefs saw how much easier the offense became when he was running with confidence, and Mahomes is still working his way back into full rhythm after a major injury. Leaning on the run game makes sense, especially as a near-touchdown home favorite. The Chiefs ranked outside the top 20 in EPA per passing play last week, and it was pretty ugly outside of one big play to Kelce, where the ball still didn't travel very far in the air.
Give me Kenneth Walker for 80-plus rushing yards, as Mahomes continues to knock some rust off.
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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