Thursday Night Football: Lions vs. Bills — NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (9/17)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Wed Sep 16, 2026, 9:30 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Football is back. We kicked off 2026 with the highest scoring Week 1 in NFL history and this week's we've got one of the highest projected Thursday night totals in a long time. The Buffalo Bills will open up their new stadium with a fierce opponent on the docket; the Detroit Lions.
This one's shaping up to be a Thursday night for the ages. Lock in with me and let's talk football.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Game Information
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Matchup Information
- Location: Highmark Stadium; Buffalo, New York
- Date: Thursday, September 17th, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Detroit Lions: Jared Goff (2025: 9-8; 268.5 YPG | 34 TD | 8 INT)
- Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen (2025: 12-5; 215.8 YPG | 25 TD | 10 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Win's a Win
Ugly, pretty or by the skin of your teeth; a win's a win. The Lions put that to the test on Sunday. Detroit played host to the Saints on Sunday and the game needed overtime to find a winner; eventually coming down to a failed 2-point conversion by New Orleans.
Amon-Ra St. Brown caught his 1st touchdown of the year and it put the Lions up 21-0 with 9 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. The lead looked insurmountable and the Saints looked like they had no answer.
New Orleans would then score 17 unanswered points, eventually tying the game on a 9-yard Juwan Johnson touchdown with just a minute left in the game.
In overtime it was the Lions that drew first blood. St. Brown scored his 2nd touchdown of the game on a 4-yard crossing route and the Lions kicked through the extra point. Now all they needed was a stop from their defense.
The Lions' defense proceeded to give up a 10-play, 75-yard drive that lasted nearly 4 minutes and resulted in a touchdown for the team's TE; Noah Fant. The Saints comeback fell short on a missed 2-point conversion, but they showed everyone on vulnerable this Lions' secondary is.
Tyler Shough threw the ball 56 times, he completed 63% of his passes, threw for 410 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Detroit also gave up 91 yards on the ground and let Travise Etienne Jr. average 5.1 yards per carry.
Detroit's defense is middle of the pack, just like Buffalo and it's why I think this games going to be a lot of fun.
New Home at Highmark
The Buffalo Bills are finally moving into their new stadium and the team will get to debut their new home on Thursday Night Football. Huge primetime game between two of the league's best offenses; both with a bounty of weapons on that side of the ball.
The Bills put up 36 points in their season opener against the Houston Texans. The offense had 409 total yards, averaged 7.9 yards per play, 10.4 yards per pass and punted just twice. They did this against last year's best defense.
Josh Allen continued to play out of this world, passing for 334 yards and 4 total touchdowns; 2 through the air and 2 on the ground. James Cook averaged 4.4 yards per carry against the stingy Houston front and ran 13 total times for 57 yards.
Dalton Kincaid lead all receivers with 5 receptions on 6 targets; 130 yards and no touchdown. DJ Moore was great in his Buffalo debut, bringing in 5 of his 8 targets for 100 yards and a touchdown.
Scoring 36 points is always impressive, doing it against this Texans' defense sounds near impossible. Now the Bills will head home for a matchup with the Detroit Lions; a team that just gave up 31 points to the New Orleans Saints.
Thursday Night's Best Bets
Dalton Kincaid o49.5 Receiving Yards (-120) | Lucky Rebel
Dalton Kincaid had an 81% snap share on Sunday and that's because of their new Head Coach, Joe Brady.
Joe Brady took over for Sean McDermott and after just one game; the league's buzzing. The Bills put up 36 points on one of the best defenses in the league and they did it on the road.
Allen finished with a passer rating of 130.5, DJ looked great in his debut and the Kincaid usage can all be attributed to the way this guy runs his offense.
Kincaid finished the game with a 69% route share, 23% target share and it's that route share that stands out the most. Kincaid had just 5 games last year with a route share above 50% and has still ranked 3rd in yards per route run over the last two years.
Now that Kincaid's healthy, he's getting the usage he deserves. New Head Coach Joe Brady is going to make sure of it.
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