Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens Sunday Night Football Preview (1/4)
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Sun Jan 04, 2026, 6:04 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Win and you're in – that's the motto for this Sunday night divisional showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens.
Pittsburgh (9-7) picked up a 27-22 road win over the Ravens (8-8) just a month ago in Baltimore, sparking a three-game winning streak for the Steelers. Last week, Pittsburgh had a chance to clinch the division if Baltimore lost on the road to Green Bay. Instead, the Ravens dismantled the Packers 41-24, keeping the race alive.
The Steelers still controlled their own fate heading into the following day. A win over the Browns in Cleveland would have sealed the division, but Cleveland's defense had other plans, holding Pittsburgh to just six points in a 13-6 loss.
That brings us to Week 18. Both teams now have a clear path to the postseason and control their own destiny. The question is simple: which team is going to capitalize?
I'll break it all down in my Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens Sunday Night Football preview.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens Sunday Night Football Preview
Does Lamar Jackson have what it takes to overcome the Steelers on Sunday Night Football?
Steelers vs Ravens Odds
Sportsbooks opened this matchup with the Ravens listed as three-point road favorites. Since then, the line has ticked up a half point to a consensus -3.5.
The total opened at 42.5, but early money has come in on the under, pushing the number as low as 40.5 at some shops, with 41 still widely available across the market.
In their first meeting back in Week 14, Baltimore closed as a 5.5-point home favorite, with the total settling around 43.5. The Steelers nearly covered that number on their own, pulling off a 27-22 upset, while the over cashed late in the game.
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore Preview
It's been difficult to get a true read on the Baltimore Ravens offense this season, largely because Lamar Jackson has dealt with injuries at various points.
Even when Jackson has been healthy, his production has fallen short of expectations. Across 12 games, he's thrown for 2,311 yards while completing under 64% of his passes, with an 18–6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's also added 340 rushing yards and two scores on the ground.
Those numbers aren't bad per se, but relative to his MVP-caliber standards, they're underwhelming. That said, Jackson has the capability of flipping a switch at any given moment – especially against a Steelers defense that has been vulnerable at times.
Pittsburgh ranks 17th in EPA per play and 15th in success rate allowed this season. They've improved over their past five games, but this is still not a trustworthy unit.
Where the Steelers have been consistent, however, is in the red zone. They rank fifth in red-zone defense, allowing touchdowns on just 50.9% of opponent trips. Interestingly enough, the team directly ahead of them is Baltimore, which allows touchdowns at a nearly identical 50.8% rate.
From a season-long perspective, Baltimore's defense has also been somewhat disappointing, sitting 19th in EPA per play and 14th in success rate allowed. They've been much stronger against the run, though, ranking sixth in rush EPA and 13th in rush success rate allowed. The Ravens are giving up 4.2 yards per carry on the season, a number they've trimmed to 3.7 over their past three games.
Pittsburgh has also shown notable improvement against the run. While they've allowed 4.2 yards per carry over the full season, that figure has dropped to just 2.9 yards per attempt across their past three games.
Baltimore's defense, as a whole, has trended upward as the season has progressed. Since Week 11, they rank inside the top 10 in both EPA and success rate. That improvement, combined with the potential for Jackson to return to elite form, helps explain why the Ravens have been bet up to -3.5.
Having a future Hall of Famer like Derrick Henry in the backfield doesn't hurt either.
On the other side, despite occasional flashes, it's been more than evident that Aaron Rodgers is no longer the quarterback he once was. The Steelers' offense ranks 19th in success rate and 18th in EPA per play.
The passing game has been the clear weakness, with Pittsburgh ranking 26th in dropback success rate and 22nd in dropback EPA. Their strength lies on the ground, where they sit fifth in both rush EPA and rush success rate.
If Pittsburgh can run the ball efficiently, they'll lean into it – but that's a tall order against a familiar opponent with a strong, formidable run defense.
Steelers vs Ravens Predictions
That leaves me expecting the Baltimore Ravens to win this game and secure the AFC North crown.
However, I'm not interested in laying -3.5 pregame. Instead, I'll be patient and look for a better in-game number on Baltimore. With the total pointing toward a lower-scoring affair, I don't expect either team to create much separation early on. That should, ideally, open the door to a cheaper price on the Ravens – preferably inside the key number of -3. If that opportunity presents itself, I'll be ready to jump in. Until then, I'm content waiting it out.
In the prop market, there is one matchup worth highlighting. While Baltimore has done a strong job limiting opposing running backs on the ground, they've been far more vulnerable to them through the air. The Ravens have allowed the third-most receptions to running backs this season (81), an average of five per game.
In the first meeting, Kenneth Gainwell was targeted seven times, catching six passes for 27 yards. Gainwell has become more involved in this Steelers offense and could be leaned on even more here, especially given a Baltimore weakness in coverage and the fact that Aaron Rodgers will be without key pass-catching options like DK Metcalf and Darnell Washington.
The best number available in the market is over 4.5 receptions at plus money (+100). I haven't locked it in myself, but if you're looking for a prop worth considering, this would be the top option on my radar.
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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