Patrick Mahomes’ Slide Cost Me Money, but Sports Aren’t Rigged: A Short Story
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Tue Oct 03, 2023, 4:32 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
It was the slide heard round the world on Sunday night.
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs were up 23-20 on the New York Jets following the two minute warning in the 4th quarter. The Chiefs faced a 3rd and 8 on the Jets 11 yard line, and if they didn't convert would most likely kick a field goal to go up 6.
But that just wouldn't do for Kansas City bettors. You could've had the Chiefs at -7.5, all the way up to -9.5. Regardless, you needed a touchdown.
The offense ran back onto the field and set up for a huge 3rd and long.
Mahomes dropped back to pass, snuck out of the pocket and was scrambling towards the end zone!
"This is it! No one's getting him! He'll score to cover the spread!"
Those were my thoughts until…
"Wait, what's he doing? Why is he sliding? No!! Don't go down!! Why?!?!"
I'm sure plenty of KC bettors shared some similar thoughts.
Now, with any scenario that: A) Costs bettors money (This was reported an 8 figure swing for the books), or B) Impacts the spread/total significantly (This play impacted both), there's going to be plenty of speculation.
The "NFL is rigged" crowd comes out of hiding, because why on Earth would Patrick Mahomes NOT score that Touchdown? He had to have known the spread and got the call from Vegas!
No. That's not how this stuff works.
Mahomes made and incredibly high Football IQ play, so let's talk about it.
Why Would He Not Score?
The Chiefs were up 3 with less than 2 minutes left, a minute and 51 seconds exactly after that 3rd down run. So why wouldn't he just score and make it a 10 point game?
That's two possessions. Did Andy Reid really think Zach Wilson and the Jets could score, execute and recover and onside kick, and then score again to tie or win?
Does he not trust the Chiefs defense? Does Mahomes not trust the defense?
Nope. That's not it all.
By securing the 1st down, staying in bounds, and not scoring, Mahomes guaranteed the Jets would not get the ball back. He sealed the game, by not scoring.
Everybody else is playing checkers, Mahomes and Reid are playing chess.
Now, any NFL player should know this is the right decision, but being calm and cool enough to recognize that in the middle of the biggest play of the game, in my eyes, that's what makes Mahomes different.
Mahomes Did Not Get "The Call" from Vegas
If you truly believe that Vegas informed the Chiefs sideline that they needed the Jets to cover and Mahomes wasn't allowed to score, I invite you to grow up and never sports bet again.
That is simply not how it works, and that logic will not help you in any facet of life.
Calling sports rigged is a cop out. It's an excuse for a loss.
Plenty of people lose sports betting, the best of the best just do so only 45% of the time.
Anyways, Mahomes made the right football play, and we have visible proof from last September.
The situation below is, ironically, from the Browns/Jets game last year.
It is almost the exact same scenario. The Jets have no time outs, it's almost the two minute warning, and the Browns have a few yards between the 1st down and the goal line.
Watch what Nick Chubb does.
Chubb had the opportunity to go down, but didn't. Instead he scored, going up two scores. However, there was still two minutes left. Plus, Cade York missed the extra point.
Meaning the Jets could win the game with two Touchdowns with two points after.
And they did just that.
Joe Flacco led a two play 75 yard drive to get the game within 6 points after the PAT. This took all of 33 seconds, and there was still 1:22 left in the game.
Low and behold, the New York Jets recovered the onside kick, and drove down the field to score the game winning touchdown, followed by the point after, beating the Browns 31-30.
The Jet's didn't have any time outs left when Nick Chubb scored that TD to put them up 13 points.
If he goes down, all the Browns have to do is kneel it out, and they win 24-17. Instead, Chubb scored, the Jets completed the impossible and walked away victorious.
Mahomes made the right football decision. Your opponent cannot score if they don't have the ball. It's that simple.
The NFL is Not Rigged
It's worth stressing again, if you believe sports are rigged, you shouldn't be betting on them. You'd never lose if you knew how they were fixed, and why on Earth would you guess on predetermined outcome?
The only sensible solution is that it's really hard to make money sports betting.
That's why Las Vegas looks like Las Vegas, and why all of us don't own houses in Cabo.
This was a huge swing for Vegas, but I would never ben one to hop on the "Sports are rigged" train just because an NFL Player made a great football play that ended up helping the books.
I refuse to believe Mahomes did this with the intention of letting the Jets cover. Instead he was thinking only about making sure the Chiefs won, which he guaranteed by going down and not scoring.
Did that move help the books? Absolutely.
But if you can't recognize that your losing bet, might've simply been just that, I'm not sure you should continue to bet on sports.
We own are losses as much as our wins, and move on to the next game.
Sports are not rigged, if they were, I would advise against betting on them.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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