NFL Week 9 Best Bets: The Prop Report
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Sun Nov 05, 2023, 6:54 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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We've officially crossed the halfway mark of the NFL Season, and it's kind of sad. We missed betting the NFL all summer, and now we're left with only got so many games left. NFL Props have been good to us this season, let's try and keep it rolling into Week 9.
Lots of big matchups here in Week 9. It all kicks off early with Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins travelling across the pond to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Germany.
Once the rest of the slate begins, of the 32 teams in the NFL, a possible 10 teams could be starting their 'back-up' quarterbacks in Week 9. With that being said, we're going to have to get a little extra surgical this week.
A. Thielen o69.5 Rec Yards (-114) via Bovada
We bet on Thielen last week, and once again he came through for us. They've bumped his line two yards, but as long as this line sits below 75; we'll be on it.
Thielen is 9th in targets/game, averaging 10 targets/game; that number jumps up to 11 targets/game over his L6 and 12+ in his L3. He's clearly Bryce Young's favourite target and his security blanket.
Last week Thielen recorded 8 catches on 11 targets for 72 yards, and he did it against the Texans; who are currently giving up thr 4th fewest yards to WRs.
This week, the Panthers are at home against Gardener Minshew and the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts rank 22nd in pass yards allowed/game and rank 21st in receiving yards allowed to WRs. The Panthers enter the game as a 2.5 point dog, with the over sitting at 44.
The total is 3rd highest on the board, behind only the Dolphins/Chiefs and Bills/Bengals.
Vegas is pointing in the direction of points, and with Thielen having hit this line in five straight, I see no reason to hop off the wagon now.
A. Thielen o69.5 Rec Yards (-114) via Bovada
A. Kamara Anytime Touchdown (-121) via Bovada
The Bears rank 31st in opponent touchdowns/game, allowing on average 3.1 TDs/game, and giving up 27.3 ppg.
The Bears have also given up 9 touchdowns to RBs on the season, 4 on the ground, and 5 through the air. Chicago's also giving up the most receiving yards to RBs and 3rd most receptions to RBs on the season.
Enter, Alvin Kamara. Kamara missed the first 3 weeks of the season but still leads all RBs in targets. He's averaging 8.8 targets/game which is higher than some WR1's in this league.
Kamara's averaging 28 touches/game on the season, but has gotten into the endzone just three times. All three touchdowns have come on the road, and you just know Kamara wants to score one in front of the home crowd.
The Saints just scored 38 on the Colts last week and now get a near bottom ranked Bears' defense. Not only do they struggle vs pass catching backs, but through the air in general.
The Saints should see plenty of redzone opportunities so let's get Kamara to punch one home for us.
A. Kamara Anytime Touchdown (-121) via Bovada
N. Collins o59.5 Rec Yards (-112) via Bovada
Someone we haven't bet on this season, but this young man's having a stellar year with first year QB, CJ Stroud.
Collins is the most targeted WR for the Texans, averaging 82.4 rec yards/game and 4.7 rec/game on about 7 targets/game.
Collin's has cleared this line in four of seven games this season, putting up 80+ in all four of those games.
Over the last three weeks, Collins and CJ Stroud have seen 3 of the NFL's top 7 pass defenses. The Falcons, the Saints, and the Panthers.
In those three games, Stroud averaged 196 pass yards/game with a 57% completion rate; even throwing his one and only career interception during this time.
In the four games prior to these matchups, Stroud was averaging 303 pass yards/game, with a 62.3% completion rate, and six passing touchdowns; 2+ in 3 of the 4 games.
These same 4 games, Collins averaged 107 yards/game, 5.5 rec/game, 8 targets/game, and 19.5 yards/catch. He pulled in 3 touchdowns in 4 games, and looks primed for more this week.
After just 30 yards last week, and 4 receptions on 6 targets; look for Nico to bounce back against the Buccs' 30th ranked pass defense.
N. Collins o59.5 Rec Yards (-112) via Bovada
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You may know me as ‘VSaaauce’. I’ve been a die hard hoops fan my entire life. I’ve been betting on the NBA/NCAAB/NFL/MLB for six years now, each year gaining more and more knowledge about being a profitable handicapper. I’m eager to learn, and eager to pass on everything I’ve gained over the last few years. I started my Twitter page four years ago, and this community makes me so thankful I did. Outside of sports and handicapping, I enjoy traveling, hoopin, a strong espresso and I’m currently studying to obtain my MD. I’m all about the vibes, good vibes only. If that sounds like you, follow me on 'X' @VSaaauce.
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