Training camps are here and the NFL preseason is just around the corner. We have some holdouts as well as some comebacks but most of these storylines are just filler for the sports blogs. After all, Le’veon Bell has made missing training camp an annual event yet it hasn’t seemed to slow him any once the regular season starts up. However, Andrew Luck actually throwing a football is important to see. Deshaun Watson is throwing as well and isn’t wearing a brace. Also good to see. Maybe there is something to it but we have bigger issues to worry about. Such as the MVP Futures.
This has always been a popular Futures bet for the NFL. The odds are, of course, significant. And really, how many players have what it takes to be the MVP. It is a special award which requires a special season by a special player. Many factors are in play and many stars must align in order to win one. First of all, it takes a team effort. You don’t see the MVP going to a player who misses the playoffs. Secondly, the player must be a big time scorer and have the ball in their hands often. This basically eliminates all positions outside of running back and quarterback. A wide receiver or defensive player would have to have a historic year to even be considered. With this in mind, let’s look for some value in the NFL MVP Futures because there is plenty to go around.
Aaron Rodgers +500
In what might come as a surprise to many, Aaron Rodgers shows up as the odds on favorite to take the MVP award. It shouldn’t surprise anyone though. If Aaron Rodgers is healthy, he is in the conversation. End of story. Especially considering just how dependent the Packers’ offense is on him and his throws. He makes the team go and it really doesn’t matter who is around him. However, he isn’t getting any younger so the risk of injury is always there. Can he play a whole year? Because, if he does, he is going to be right there. +500 is a good number for such a favorite.
Carson Wentz +550
Another bit of a head-scratcher for a favorite for MVP. The Eagles are hot right now though and the oddsmakers are taking advantage of their popularity. Wentz is a great player on a great team so that checks out but he is coming off a major injury. However, he was having a MVP calibur year before said injury. Can he reproduce such a year again and see it through to the end of the season? Hard to say. +550 may not be a good enough number to play it.
Tom Brady +600
This is probably another surprise. Brady won the award last year after all and it was the third MVP he’s claimed. He doesn’t show any sign of slowing down and will have yet another good team all around him. His star-power alone will have him in consideration at the end of the year no matter the numbers he produces so a +600 payout for a big favorite is a great number. A boring pick? Yes. A smart pick? Also yes.
Drew Brees +1200
Now we are getting to the long-shot territory where the payouts can be fantastic and Brees is a nice play at +1200. He is a veteran on the backside of his career, however, he’s still one helluva quarterback on a team that is going to win plenty of games. Injury is a risk with these old fellas but Brees has always been one to play the entire season. He puts up the numbers year after year so he may have one more big year left in him.
Todd Gurley +3000
Many thought he should have won last year’s award and at +3000 is the best value going. MVP’s usually go to the QB’s but running backs such as Gurley should always be in the conversation simply for the workload they take on. The focal point of a team that should win plenty of games again. If he can erase a few of the bad games he had last year, he may just win this thing and at that number it is definitely worth a play.