New England Patriots vs Houston Texans Preview & Picks (1/18): Maye All Day
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Sun Jan 18, 2026, 2:02 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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The first of two games on Sunday's Divisional Round slate features a matchup between Drake Maye and the New England Patriots and C.J. Stroud with the Houston Texans.
When hypothetical lines were posted for this potential matchup, while books waited on the result of Monday Night Football between the Texans and Steelers, New England was listed as a 1.5-point favorite, with the total set at 43.5. Following Houston's official win, the opener moved to Patriots -2.5 with the total dropping to 41.5. Now, New England sits as a consensus three-point favorite, with the total ranging between 40.5 and 41.
I'll break down what to expect and how to bet this matchup in my New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans preview and picks.
For additional information on playoff picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our 2026 NFL Playoffs: Schedule, Bracket, Odds, and Expert & Consensus Picks page.
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New England Patriots vs Houston Texans Preview & Picks
Can Drake Maye lead the Patriots to the AFC Championship Game?
Patriots vs Texans Preview
On both sides of the ball, there are clear discrepancies between these two teams. New England enters with the league's potential MVP under center and finished the regular season ranking first in EPA per play and fourth in success rate. Meanwhile, under C.J. Stroud, Houston's offense has been underwhelming, sitting 22nd in EPA per play and 28th in success rate.
Things could get even tougher for the Texans, as they may be without their top receiving threat in Nico Collins. Collins remains in concussion protocol and appears unlikely to suit up. Stroud needs all the help he can get, considering his struggles as a passer and the lack of a reliable run game to lean on. Led by tailbacks Woody Marks and Nick Chubb, Houston finished the regular season ranking 30th in both offensive rush EPA and rush success rate.
Perhaps the Texans can take a step forward this week against a Patriots run defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in both rush EPA and success rate. Overall, though, New England's defense sits 11th in EPA per play and 18th in success rate. Conversely, Houston finished the regular season second in both defensive EPA per play and success rate.
The good news for New England is that its defense has shown signs of improvement, particularly in the red zone. The Patriots have adopted a bend-don't-break approach, as their season-long red-zone defensive efficiency sits at 64.3% (27th), but over the past three games that number has dropped sharply to 14.3%. Opponents have been able to move the ball, but finishing drives in the red zone has remained, and will continue to be, the key issue.
Given how inefficient this Texans offense has been – and with their top red-zone weapon likely unavailable – it's fair to question where Houston is expected to find consistent success inside the 20.
Patriots vs Texans Picks
Whether or not Houston finds itself in the red zone, the Texans should be looking to hone in on their next-best receiving option with Nico Collins expected to be sidelined. That player is Christian Kirk.
Kirk proved capable of stepping into that role during the Wild Card round, hauling in eight of nine targets for 144 yards and a touchdown. While that level of production isn't guaranteed to carry over week to week, it does highlight the confidence and rhythm C.J. Stroud has developed with him.
More importantly, the betting market hasn't adjusted enough. Kirk's receiving-yard prop is listed at 37.5 yards at -115, which is a number I'm happy to attack. The Texans should be forced into a more pass-heavy script, as I expect them to be playing from behind while continuing to struggle on the ground. That combination should create additional volume and opportunities for Kirk to clear this number.
On the side, I'm also backing New England. I've been skeptical of this Texans offense for quite some time, and I expect their run to come to an end here. Stroud and company have consistently shown they can be unreliable offensively, and now they're operating without their top weapon. Stroud alone committed three turnovers against the Steelers last week, finishing the game with five fumbles and losing two of them. Had Houston been facing a somewhat competent offense, we'd likely be having a much different conversation.
Add in the fact that the Texans are a dome team playing back-to-back road games in cold-weather environments, and the disadvantage becomes even clearer. I trust this Patriots defense to tighten up in the red zone, and I trust Drake Maye to make the necessary big-time throws to push New England over the top and into the AFC Championship Game.
When lines were first released, I was able to grab New England at a better number on the moneyline. Unfortunately for bettors looking to back the Patriots now, the market has moved aggressively. Some shops are hanging New England at -3.5, while the moneyline has climbed as high as -180.
That said, I want to stay under the key number of three. There is still a -2.5 available at -135. I have plenty of confidence in New England winning this game, but Houston's defense is strong enough to keep things within a field goal. That's why I'm hesitant to lay -120 on the flat -3. Instead, I'm willing to pay the additional juice to come off the key number.
It's also worth noting that when Drake Maye has been a favorite of three points or more, he's 11-0 straight up and 9-2 against the spread, with an average margin of victory of 16.6 points. Every situation is different – especially against the league's top defense – but it's another data point that supports betting the home favorite in this spot.
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NFL Record: 105-89-1 (+5.20 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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