Three straight losses are rough in any scenario, but when they come against division rivals amid a tight divisional race, the frustration only increases.
That's exactly where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers find themselves. Sitting at 7–8, Tampa Bay now trails the division-leading Carolina Panthers by a game after Carolina edged them out 23–20 last week.
With their postseason hopes hanging in the balance, can the Bucs keep themselves alive with a road win against the Miami Dolphins? I'll tell you what to expect in this game with my Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Bucs preview and predictions.
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Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Bucs Preview & Predictions
Will Baker Mayfield be able to snap his team's losing streak?
Dolphins vs Bucs Preview
I feel like I say this every time I talk or write about Tampa Bay, but it still applies – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the biggest frauds in the NFL.
I've been banging that drum since after Week 3, when the Bucs escaped with their third straight narrow win, this time a 29–27 victory over the New York Jets. That came on the heels of a 20–19 win against Houston and a 23–20 opening-week win in Atlanta.
Five of Tampa Bay's seven wins have come by one score. This isn't a reliable team – honestly, it's not even a good one. The only reason the Bucs remain relevant in the playoff conversation is because they play in the NFC South, the worst division in football.
The NFC South is the only division in the league where every team has a negative point differential. The division-leading Carolina Panthers sit at 8–7 despite being outscored by 50 points. Tampa Bay isn't far behind at -30.
The good news for Baker Mayfield and company is that they have a matchup with the Miami Dolphins – a team that drew plenty of hype during a four-game win streak, despite it being obvious to anyone who watched them or glanced at the numbers that it was a fluke driven by an extremely easy schedule.
That reality showed itself in primetime at Pittsburgh, where Miami was thoroughly dismantled and afterwards Tua Tagovailoa was benched in favor of rookie Quinn Ewers.
Last week looked like a manageable landing spot for Ewers against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that ranks among the league's worst, but it still didn't go smoothly. Ewers completed 20 of 30 passes for 313 yards, yet failed to throw a touchdown and tossed two interceptions in a 45–21 loss.
Evidently, Miami's biggest issue this season has been their defense. Much like the offense, it only appeared competent during that winning streak because of the lack of quality opponents.
So how will this unit stack up against Tampa Bay's offense?
Frankly, it's not an intimidating matchup. The Buccaneers' offense has been underwhelming, especially relative to expectations after last season. They rank 24th in offensive success rate and 20th in EPA per play. Still, this is a spot where those numbers could improve against a Miami defense that sits 26th in both EPA per play and success rate allowed.
Even with Tampa Bay's struggles this season, I don't have many questions about their offensive capabilities – especially in this matchup against a lackluster Miami defense. The bigger question is how Quinn Ewers and the Miami Dolphins offense will perform against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense.
If you look at Tampa Bay's full-season defensive numbers, they're not great, but they're also not quite as troubling as I've made them sound. The Bucs rank 16th in EPA per play allowed and 20th in success rate allowed, while also sitting top-10 against the run in both EPA and success rate.
However, when you narrow the sample to games since Week 12, their true colors become much more apparent:
- EPA per play: 25th
- Success rate: 31st
- Dropback EPA: 25th
- Dropback success rate: 32nd
- Rush EPA: 13th
- Rush success rate: 20th
So even though Ewers didn't impress in his first career start, he now has a full game of experience under his belt and draws another matchup against a bottom-tier defense. Given all of that, it's reasonable to expect a more competent showing from the former Texas Longhorn.
Dolphins vs Bucs Predictions
Best Bet: Dolphins +6 (-110 at Lucky Rebel)
The simplest way to approach this handicap is to ask whether the Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be laying six points on the road against any team. The answer is no.
Sure, they could prove me wrong and take advantage of a poor Miami Dolphins defense, but I'm not putting my money on them to find out.
More often than not, teams in desperate playoff situations end up faltering, and that's a real concern here. Tampa Bay can technically stay alive even with a loss, provided the Carolina Panthers also lose. With that in mind, it's hard not to believe part of the Bucs' focus is already drifting toward their Week 18 rematch with Carolina, which will likely decide the division.
When you combine that situational spot with just how underwhelming this team has been from a statistical standpoint, it points toward taking the points with the home underdog.
Tampa Bay rarely wins games in convincing fashion and I'm not expecting that to change this Sunday.
Best Bet: Dolphins +6 (-110 at Lucky Rebel)
NFL Record: 92-78-1 (+4.80 units)
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