Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals Preview & Predictions (12/21): Ewers Time to Shine
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Sun Dec 21, 2025, 11:43 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Heading into this matchup, the Dolphins opened as slight favorites of 1.5 points, with the total hovering around 50.5. Those numbers shifted quickly after head coach Mike McDaniel announced that Quinn Ewers would start at quarterback over Tua Tagovailoa.
Tua Time's Up: The Dolphins are benching QB Tua Tagovailoa and will start rookie Quinn Ewers on Sunday, sources tell The Insiders.
Tagovailoa is due $54 million fully guaranteed in 2026. But his future in Miami is now clearly up in the air. pic.twitter.com/ZzO3gnlouS
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) December 17, 2025
With Ewers under center and Joe Burrow leading the Bengals into South Beach, Miami is now catching anywhere from +4 to +4.5, while the total has dropped to 47.5.
So what do we make of a matchup between two teams with essentially nothing to play for? I'll break it down below with my Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals preview and picks.
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Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals Preview & Predictions
Can Quinn Ewers perform well in his first career NFL start?
Dolphins vs Bengals Preview
It's odd, isn't it? A team riding a four-game win streak decided to bench its starting quarterback immediately after suffering its first loss in over a month.
You don't usually see something like that in sports. After all, that same quarterback helped guide his team through that winning streak – so why bench him after just one bad game?
Well, it wasn't just one bad game. And that's exactly what I was trying to explain to the trolls on X leading into Miami's matchup against the Steelers.
3 of L4 wins have come against the likes of WSH, NO & NYJ. Tua hasn't thrown more than 15 passes or more than 173 yds in that span & Achane is banged up
MIA defense still bottom half in most metrics
They got Pit, Cin, TB & NE remaining. We'll be sleeping until proven otherwise
— Danny Burke (@dannyburke5) December 8, 2025
Many people were all high and mighty on this Miami team, thinking they had become a legit contender in the AFC, all because they had beaten some of the worst teams in the NFL in consecutive weeks.
A lot of people were suddenly high on this Dolphins team, convinced they had become a legitimate AFC contender simply because they rattled off wins against some of the worst teams in the NFL. Don't get me wrong – their 30–13 win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 10 was impressive. But it was also a division game, and the second meeting between those teams. The Bills are clearly the better roster, but division upsets happen all the time.
After that, Miami followed it up by beating the lowly Commanders, Saints, and Jets – and that was enough for many to buy in. I couldn't help but chuckle. It was obvious the Dolphins benefited from an extremely soft stretch of the schedule, and just as obvious that they hadn't actually improved.
Metrically speaking, heading into the Steelers game, Miami still profiled as one of the worst defenses in football:
- 32nd in opponent completion percentage
- 29th in dropback success rate allowed
- 28th in yards per carry allowed
- 26th in rushing yards allowed
- 25th in overall success rate
- 25th in defensive back EPA
- 22nd in EPA/play
- 23rd in yards per play allowed
- 20th in defensive DVOA
- 19th in total yards allowed per game
And on the offensive front, their success was almost entirely driven by what De'Von Achane was doing. Prior to their Monday night loss in Pittsburgh, Achane was making a legitimate case for Offensive Player of the Year.
During Miami's four-game win streak, he carried the ball 72 times for 520 yards, averaging an absurd 8.2 yards per carry, while scoring four rushing touchdowns. He also added 12 receptions for 109 yards.
Even in the loss to Pittsburgh, Achane averaged five yards per carry for 60 rushing yards and caught all six of his targets for 67 yards. He's an elite playmaker, and without him, there's a real argument that this Dolphins team could be winless.
Tua Tagovailoa, on the other hand, didn't do much during that stretch. Throughout the win streak, he failed to throw for more than 173 yards or complete more than 15 passes in a game, posting a 3–3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
That's why Tua got benched. He wasn't playing well even while the Dolphins were winning. Those victories were driven by Achane's dominance and the weakness of Miami's opponents.
I don't blame Mike McDaniel at all for making the switch and seeing what he has in rookie Quinn Ewers.
We've only seen a small sample from Ewers this season. He briefly appeared against the Browns in Week 7 during a 31–6 loss, completing 5 of 8 passes for 53 yards while taking two sacks.
Still, this matchup against Cincinnati couldn't be a better opportunity for the former Texas Longhorn.
The Bengals own the worst defense in the NFL, ranking dead last in points allowed per game (31.2), yards allowed per game (403.8), EPA per play, and success rate allowed.
If there was ever a dream scenario for a rookie quarterback to prove himself, this is it.
On the flip side, this is also a strong spot for Joe Burrow. Given everything laid out about Miami's defensive profile, Burrow should be in position to take full advantage.
Dolphins vs Bengals Predictions
I don't have any official plays in this game at the moment, but I do have a strong lean toward the Dolphins at +4.5. Often, when a team replaces its starting quarterback, we see a short-term spark from the new face. It also creates a difficult situation for the opposing defense, which has limited tape and very few NFL reps to study when preparing for an unproven rookie quarterback.
That challenge is even greater when the defense on the other side happens to be the worst in the league. Because of that, catching points beyond the key number of three is the more appealing side.
I do expect this game to be higher scoring, and it wouldn't surprise me if it stays close – or even tied – for most of the way, only to end on a Bengals game-winning touchdown that allows Cincinnati to cover the number. That's ultimately why I'm hesitant to make it an official play. While I do believe Miami's offense can keep up, I have no faith whatsoever in their defense.
Even though there isn't much at stake, this game could still shape up to be one of the more entertaining matchups on the Week 16 slate.
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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