Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans Preview & Picks (12/27): High on Herbert
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Fri Dec 26, 2025, 2:30 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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A marquee AFC matchup with major playoff implications is set for Saturday afternoon. At 4:30 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, the 11–4 Los Angeles Chargers host the 10–5 Houston Texans.
Justin Herbert and the Chargers have won four straight games and remain alive in the AFC West race. A win here would keep their division hopes intact heading into a pivotal Week 18 matchup against the Broncos. Even with a loss, Los Angeles would remain firmly in the wild-card picture, where they currently hold the No. 5 seed.
Houston, meanwhile, enters as the No. 7 seed, sitting just a couple of games ahead of Indianapolis and one game behind Buffalo. To win the AFC South, the Texans would need to beat the Chargers this Saturday, defeat the Colts next week, and also get help with the Jaguars losing at least one of their final two games.
There's plenty on the line in this matchup – both in the standings and at the betting window – so let's dive into my Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans preview and picks.
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Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans Preview & Picks
The Chargers are cruising during the past month – can they keep it going against the Texans?
Best Bet: Chargers Moneyline (-125 at Lucky Rebel)
Chargers vs Texans Preview
Despite undergoing surgery on his non-throwing hand roughly a month ago, Justin Herbert has guided the Chargers to a four-game winning streak. He's coming off one of his best performances of the season, throwing for 300 yards with two touchdowns and no turnovers while completing 79% of his passes (23-of-29) in a 34–17 road win over Dallas. Herbert also added 42 rushing yards on eight scrambles, showing a willingness to use his legs despite the injury.
While last week's outing was an encouraging sign regarding Herbert's health and progression, it would be bold to expect a repeat performance against one of the league's top defenses on Saturday.
Houston enters this matchup ranked first in points allowed per game (16.6), yards allowed per game (272.3) and EPA per play allowed. However, the Texans showed some cracks last week, nearly losing as 14-point home favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders. Whether it was a lookahead spot or simple sloppiness, Houston narrowly escaped with a 23–21 victory over a team widely viewed as one of the league's worst.
What stood out most was how dominant rookie running back Ashton Jeanty was. After struggling for much of the season behind one of the NFL's poorest offensive lines, Jeanty gashed Houston's vaunted run defense for 128 yards on 24 carries (5.3 YPC) and a rushing touchdown. He also added a 60-yard reception that went for a score.
Was that performance merely an aberration, or is Houston's defense more vulnerable than its season-long numbers suggest?
Well, it's still a formidable defense, there's no doubt about that – but there has been some slight regression. Over the full season, DeMeco Ryans' unit ranks first in EPA per play and third in success rate allowed. However, if we narrow the sample to the past five games (since Week 12), Houston slips to seventh in EPA per play and ninth in success rate allowed.
Those are still top-10 marks and nothing to dismiss, but the drop-off from a defense that spent most of the season at the very top is noticeable, especially coming off a vulnerable performance against one of the league's worst offenses last week.
Conversely, the Chargers' offense has been trending in the right direction. On the season, Herbert and company rank 18th in EPA per play and 13th in success rate, but over their past five games they've climbed to 11th in EPA per play and 15th in success rate.
Flipping to the other side only highlights Houston's issues. For the full season, the Texans' offense sits 23rd in EPA per play and 28th in success rate, with only marginal improvement over their past five games. Even that slight uptick appears more schedule-driven than performance-driven, as Houston has faced a softer slate in the second half of the season rather than showing meaningful growth from C.J. Stroud and the offense.
As for Los Angeles' defense, it has been stout all year. The Chargers rank seventh in success rate allowed and sixth in EPA per play allowed on the season, and they've taken another step forward recently – improving to third in EPA per play allowed over their past five games.
Chargers vs Texans Picks
What's notable about the Chargers' recent defensive surge is seeing them rank first in both rush EPA and success rate over their past five games. That stands out, because all season long I've been critical of the Texans' inept rushing offense, which ranks 31st in success rate and 30th in EPA per play and has not improved much as of late.
This could be a key separator in the matchup. Houston's ineffective ground game makes it difficult to control possession or the clock, forcing the Texans to lean heavily on C.J. Stroud – who has largely thrived against weaker opponents.
In this spot, I'm more comfortable backing the better quarterback in Justin Herbert, the better coach in John Harbaugh, and the more complete team in the Los Angeles Chargers.
The betting market appears to agree. Los Angeles opened at -1.5 and has since moved as high as -2.5. I'm opting for the Chargers moneyline at -125, which I view as a fair price given the matchup.
The underlying metrics point to a slight edge for Los Angeles, and last week's apparent lookahead performance by Houston raises a red flag. Teams that struggle in those situations often carry that inefficiency into the following game – and that's what I'm banking on here.
Best Bet: Chargers Moneyline (-125 at Lucky Rebel)
NFL Record: 92-78-1 (+4.80 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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