Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants Preview & Props (12/28)
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Sat Dec 27, 2025, 6:30 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
This game falls squarely into the "so bad it might actually be good" category, as the New York Giants head to Sin City to take on the Las Vegas Raiders.
Jaxson Dart and the G-Men are searching for their third win of the season, while veteran quarterback Geno Smith is trying to do the same with his group in Las Vegas.
With two bad teams squaring off in a game that means very little, what should you expect – and how should you approach it from a betting perspective? I'll break it all down in my Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants preview and props.
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Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants Preview & Props
Can Geno Smith finally get his offense in a groove against the Giants on Sunday?
Raiders vs Giants Preview
Even though it resulted in a loss, the Las Vegas Raiders arguably turned in one of their more impressive performances of the season last week in Houston, falling just short in a 23–21 loss to the Houston Texans. Geno Smith threw for 201 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, but the real story on offense was rookie running back Ashton Jeanty.
Jeanty erupted for 128 rushing yards on 24 carries (5.3 YPC), added a rushing touchdown, and scored again through the air on a 60-yard reception – easily the best game of his young career. Those numbers are impressive on their own, but doing it against one of the league's best defenses makes it even more remarkable.
The former Boise State Bronco should be set up for success again this week, drawing a matchup with a New York Giants defense that allows an NFL-worst 5.5 yards per carry, and ranks dead last in both rush EPA and rush success rate allowed.
Naturally, that matchup has pushed bettors toward Jeanty's overs, and the market has adjusted accordingly. His rushing yards prop is sitting around 73.5, while the cheapest price on his anytime touchdown prop is -145. He could certainly clear those numbers again, but with the inflation baked in, there isn't much value left this time around.
Jeanty is still expected to shoulder a heavy workload, especially with tight end Brock Bowers placed on injured reserve this past week, effectively ending his season. That also opens the door for fellow tight end Michael Mayer to step into a larger role…more on him shortly.
On the other side, where can Jaxson Dart and the Giants offense find success?
The Raiders' defense hasn't been much better. They rank 24th in overall success rate allowed and 23rd in EPA per play. Their biggest weakness lies in the secondary, where they sit 26th in both dropback EPA and dropback success rate, while allowing the second-highest completion percentage in the league at 68.9%. That number has climbed to 76% over their past three games.
Dart is completing just 62% of his passes this season, but he owns a solid 13-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's thrown for 1,835 yards, averaging 183.5 per game, and his passing yards prop is listed at 185.5 – a number that's very much in play against a bottom-tier pass defense.
With two underachieving offenses facing two awful defenses, how has the betting market reacted?
Oddsmakers opened the Giants as 2-point favorites with a total of 42. Since then, New York has been bet up to -2.5, while the total has dipped slightly to a consensus 41.5.
I don't have enough trust in either team to back them outright, but one angle worth considering is teasing the underdog from +2.5 up to +8.5 on a standard six-point teaser and pairing it with another leg. If the roles were reversed and the Giants were catching points, I'd be looking at the same approach. Whoever wins this game likely does so without margin – and probably not by more than a touchdown.
I don't have an official play on the side or total, but there is value to be found in the prop market.
Raiders vs Giants Props
Best Bet: Michael Mayer Over 3.5 Receptions (-114 at Lucky Rebel)
As mentioned earlier, Brock Bowers is out for the remainder of the season, which opens the door for an expanded role for Michael Mayer.
When Bowers missed his first game earlier this year, Mayer stepped up, catching five of seven targets for 50 yards and a touchdown. In the following game – also without Bowers – Mayer managed just one catch for 10 yards, though that came in a 31–0 blowout loss to the Kansas City Chiefs where game script quickly went out the window.
This week sets up far more favorably. The New York Giants allow opposing tight ends to average 4.6 receptions for 44.7 yards per game. With Las Vegas already thin on reliable pass-catchers and Bowers no longer in the picture, Mayer should see a noticeable bump in opportunity.
I played a wager on Mayer over 3.5 receptions at -114. On many teams, he'd be a full-time starter, but Bowers' dominance caps his role. With that obstacle removed, this is a clear chance for Mayer to reassert himself and make a meaningful impact on Sunday.
Best Bet: Michael Mayer Over 3.5 Receptions (-114 at Lucky Rebel)
NFL Record: 92-78-1 (+4.80 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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