Kate’s Prop Shop: The Best Props for Week 18 in the NFL
Written by: Kate Constable
Published: Sat Jan 03, 2026, 2:09 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
nfl
Matthew Stafford saved us from our second-straight 0-3 week. He finished with 22 completions last weekend against the Falcons, just barely getting over the 21.5 mark that we bet. Woody Marks and Rico Dowdle performed better than we expected, exceeding their rushing props when we bet the under. The last two weeks haven't been kind to us, with our record now sitting at 25-20 on the season. With one week left in the regular season, let's finish it on a high note.
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Bears WR Luther Burden Longest Reception Over 22.5 vs. Lions (Lucky Rebel, -112)
Burden has a near-perfect setup working in his favor here. Detroit's secondary has been a mess for weeks, consistently giving up chunk plays and struggling to keep receivers in front of them. This is a defense that can be beaten vertically, and it's shown over and over again. On the Chicago side, the incentive is obvious. Caleb Williams is within striking distance of becoming the first Bears quarterback to hit the 4,000-yard mark, and this feels like the exact type of spot where Ben Johnson leans into that narrative. Even if the game stays competitive or tilts late, there's no reason for the Bears to suddenly get conservative through the air. Burden doesn't need volume here. He needs one clean look downfield, and he's the type of receiver who can turn a single target into a 30-plus-yard gain.
Ravens RB Derrick Henry Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts vs. Steelers (Lucky Rebel, -110)
It would feel wrong not to target Derrick Henry's workload in a winner-take-all AFC North showdown. Henry is coming off a monster Week 17 performance, with a career-high 36 carries for 216 yards and four touchdowns, reminding everyone he's still King. Over the last month, he's averaging more than 130 rushing yards per game and continues to do his damage after contact. With Lamar Jackson expected to play but clearly not at full strength, Baltimore has every incentive to lean on its most reliable weapon. That approach showed up earlier this season when Henry had 25 carries against Pittsburgh, and the stakes are even higher now. In a must-win game where controlling the clock matters, this rushing attempts number feels too low.
Chase Brown Under 62.5 Rushing Yards vs. Browns (Lucky Rebel, -110)
Chase Brown is coming off a solid box-score game, but this spot is a tough one to repeat that kind of efficiency. Cleveland's run defense is legit, ranking near the top of the league in run-stop metrics and consistently forcing opponents to earn every yard on the ground. This isn't a defense that gives up chunk runs, and that's a problem for a back like Brown who relies on volume and breakaways to clear higher rushing totals. We've already seen this matchup once, and it didn't go well for Brown. The Browns held him to just 2.0 yards per carry, limiting second-level opportunities. There's little reason to expect a drastically different outcome, especially with Cincinnati likely needing to lean more on the passing game if they fall behind or struggle to sustain early drives. If the Bengals do move the ball, it's more likely to come through the air than by grinding out rushing yards against a disciplined front.
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Kate is a Minnesota-born, Chicago-based sports broadcaster and betting analyst covering football and basketball across both the college and pro ranks. A host on the BetMGM Network (The Bettor Angle, BetMGM Gameday) and contributor at Betting News, she delivers smart, honest, and occasionally painful insight — usually while regretting her loyalty to the Bears and Timberwolves.
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