NFL Wild Card Weekend wraps up Monday night with a showdown between the Texans and Steelers. With 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers potentially playing the final season of his career, the question becomes whether he can push things one game further – or if Houston's top-rated defense delivers the final chapter of his legacy.
Here's what to expect in my Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers preview and best bets.
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Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Preview & Best Bets
Can Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers win as home underdogs on Monday night against the Texans?
Texans vs. Steelers Preview
Thanks to an AFC North division title, the 10-7 Steelers will host the 12-5 Texans in the opening round of the postseason. Home-field advantage is huge for Pittsburgh, as teams coached by Mike Tomlin are 12-1 straight up and 7-6 against the spread in Monday Night Football games at home.
Of course, every matchup is different, and context matters – especially when the opponent brings one of the league's best defenses. Houston finished the regular season ranked first in yards per game allowed (277.2) and second in points per game allowed (17.4). They also ranked second in both EPA per play and success rate.
On the other side, Pittsburgh finished 19th in EPA per play and 13th in success rate offensively. For much of the season, the Steelers' defense was their achilles' heel, but it has gradually shown improvement as the year has progressed.
The good news for Tomlin's defense is the type of offense they'll be facing – and it's an unimpressive one. With C.J. Stroud under center, Houston ranks 28th in offensive success rate and 22nd in EPA per play. Stroud has shown flashes, but the unit as a whole has underachieved.
The bigger concern is what happens if Stroud can't find a rhythm. There's no reliable backfield to fall back on. The Texans rank 30th in both rush EPA and rush success rate, while the Steelers have allowed just 3.6 yards per carry over their last three games.
Texans vs. Steelers Best Bets
The Texans' offensive struggles, paired with Pittsburgh's home-field advantage, lead me to believe the Steelers can keep this game close – and potentially win it outright. An indoor team with an inconsistent offense traveling into a hostile, cold-weather environment puts C.J. Stroud and Houston at a slight disadvantage. Because of that, my first bet was Pittsburgh +3.5, laying a bit of juice at -121.
Aaron Rodgers getting his top target, DK Metcalf, back in the mix can't be overstated, especially when combined with the increased production out of the backfield from Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell.
Pittsburgh finished the season sixth in offensive rush success rate and seventh in rush EPA. And it's not just the ground game that's impressed, they've found ways to stay efficient through the air as well.
Gainwell, in particular, has emerged as a reliable receiving option over his last eight games, averaging 5.5 receptions on 6.4 targets for 45.4 receiving yards per contest. While Houston's defense has been elite overall, they've shown a slight vulnerability against running backs in the passing game, allowing 32 receiving yards on four catches per game. With how strong the Texans' secondary is, if Rodgers' downfield options are consistently covered, that should open up dump-off opportunities for Gainwell – with plenty of room to run.
Earlier this week, I gave out Kenneth Gainwell over 28.5 receiving yards on our show, Any Given Wager. That number has since moved to 30.5, with -115 attached. I still like the over at 30.5. Gainwell is a major focal point of this offense, and Rodgers' trust in him has continued to grow as the season has progressed.
Best Bets:
NFL record: 103-87-1 (+5.56)
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