Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders Predictions & Props (12/21)
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Sun Dec 21, 2025, 11:36 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
nfl
How about these red-hot Houston Texans, who ride a six-game winning streak into NFL Week 16. Their last loss came back in Week 9, when they hosted the Denver Broncos and fell 18–15. Considering they're 14-point favorites this Sunday against the Raiders, it feels safe to assume that their win streak is likely to continue.
That said, nothing is ever guaranteed when it comes to the point spread, total, or props. So below, I'll break down what to expect in this matchup with my Houston Texans vs. Las Vegas Raiders predictions and prop bets.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.
Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders Predictions & Props
Can the Texans extend their winning streak to seven games on Sunday?
Texans vs Raiders Predictions
After starting the season 0–3, Houston's turnaround has been nothing short of impressive. The Texans sit just one game behind the division-leading Jacksonville Jaguars, while currently holding the final wild-card spot as the No. 7 seed in the AFC.
This could end up being a massive week for Houston. As moneyline favorites around -1000, they carry an implied win probability of roughly 90.9%. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is catching +3.5 on the road against the Denver Broncos, leaving the top spot in the AFC South very much in play if the odds break as expected.
So yes – we expect Houston to win. But are they capable of covering more than 14 points?
The bigger question might be whether the Raiders can score at all. Las Vegas draws the league's No. 1 defense in EPA per play allowed, along with a unit that ranks third in success rate allowed. That's a tough matchup for any offense, but especially for a Raiders team that owns the league's worst offensive line and ranks 31st in EPA/play and 30th in success rate.
The potential silver lining for Raiders backers is how underwhelming this Texans offense has been at times. Yes, they erupted for 40 points against Arizona last week, but when you zoom out to their season-long numbers, there are still clear vulnerabilities.
Houston ranks 29th in offensive success rate and 18th in EPA/play. Those numbers matter – just maybe not as much in a matchup against the lowly Raiders.
Even though Maxx Crosby has put together a strong season, the rest of this Raiders defense has struggled. Las Vegas ranks 25th in defensive success rate and 24th in EPA/play allowed.
They've had major issues in the secondary, though they've shown flashes against the run, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry this season, the third-fewest in the league. That said, that figure has climbed to 4.4 yards per attempt over their last three games, and they remain extremely flawed in the red zone – more on that shortly.
Some sportsbooks opened the Texans at -12.5, while others went as high as -14.5. Either way, Houston now sits as roughly a 14-point favorite, with the total consensus at 38. That number hasn't moved much throughout the week.
On paper, there's no debate that the Houston Texans are the better and more efficient team. But the NFL can be wonky. We see games stay competitive when it makes little sense. That's not analysis you should base a bet on, but there's still something that feels off about buying into Houston at its absolute peak.
Does C.J. Stroud warrant being a 14-point favorite? Against the Raiders – perhaps. We know his defense certainly does, though.
I'm not necessarily advocating for a bet on the Raiders, but I'd much rather take two touchdowns than lay them with a team riding a high, sporting a mediocre offense, and potentially looking ahead to a road matchup against the Chargers next week.
That said, Geno Smith and the Raiders offense have been so poor that it's nearly impossible to pull the trigger. Because of that, I'll be staying away from a side, but I do have an official play in the prop market.
Texans vs Raiders Props
Outside of Geno Smith getting sacked numerous times, the other guarantee lately in Raiders games is Las Vegas surrendering a rushing touchdown.
Over their last four games, the Raiders have allowed six rushing scores:
Saquon Barkley (1)
RJ Harvey (1)
Kimani Vidal (1)
Jarett Patterson (1)
Quinshon Judkins (2)
On the season, Las Vegas is allowing the second-most rushing touchdowns per game at 1.4. Their run defense is solid between the 20s, but once opponents reach the red zone, they consistently struggle to contain the ground attack.
It appears rookie running back Woody Marks is expected to play Sunday, but honestly, even if he weren't, I'd be comfortable backing whoever the Texans' starting running back is to score against this defense. It's been a cash cow recently, and I'm going to ride this bet until the wheels fall off.
More importantly, Houston has been leaning on Marks more heavily of late, especially near the goal line. He's coming off a two-touchdown performance against Arizona despite logging just seven carries, and prior to that he was averaging 18.6 rush attempts per game over a five-game span.
As heavy favorites, there's little reason for the Texans to put extra strain on C.J. Stroud. Instead, they should look to control the game, chew clock, and lean on the run – particularly in the red zone, which sets up well for Marks to find six points again.
Best Bet: Woody Marks Anytime Touchdown (+100)
NFL Record: 85-69-1 (+5.53 units)
Still Didn't Get Your NFL Fix?
Follow me on X @dannyburke5 for all my picks, analysis and plenty more. Also be sure to follow Betting News on 'X' and Twitch to catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day and check out our Free Expert Picks for every major sports league.
More NFL News
NFL Betting News
NFL QB Futures Odds: Week 1 Starters & Next Team Markets
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News
Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.