Dolphins vs Bills Prediction & Picks (NFL Week 15): Is the under the best bet in this AFC East rivalry tilt?

Eddie Griffin

Despite back-to-back losses, the Miami Dolphins remain in a strong position to make the NFL playoffs for the first time since 2016.

However, the outlook is less encouraging for their AFC East title challenge, which could all but end come Saturday night (8:15 pm ET, NFL Network) when they face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium.

The Dolphins (8-5, 3-4 away) have dropped back-to-back games to the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers, and they are two games behind the Bills (10-3, 5-1 home) atop the AFC East standings.

Miami owns a valuable head-to-head win over Buffalo, as they edged out the Bills 21-19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 3. But that won’t mean much if they fall short of the season sweep on Saturday.

Will Miami tighten up the division race this weekend? Or is a second straight division crown for Buffalo a foregone conclusion at this point? Read on for our Dolphins vs Bills prediction, as well as our picks for Saturday’s showdown.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Odds

Early Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel as of Wednesday, December 14, 2022, at 9:10 am ET. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Spread

  • Miami Dolphins +7.5 (-115)
  • Buffalo Bills -7.5 (-105)

Over/Under

  • Over 42.5 (-105)
  • Under 42.5 (-115)

Moneyline

  • Miami Dolphins +270
  • Buffalo Bills -335

Gameday Odds

Odds are via FanDuel as of Saturday, December 17, 2022, at 12:40 pm ET.

Spread

  • Miami Dolphins +7 (-110)
  • Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)

Over/Under

  • Over 43.5 (-110)
  • Under 43.5 (-110)

Moneyline

  • Miami Dolphins +270
  • Buffalo Bills -325

Will the Dolphins and Bills Have Another Low-Scoring Matchup?

Both Miami and Buffalo have had a number of impressive performances over the course of this season, but neither one has much from the last two weeks to write home about.

The Dolphins scored 30+ points in four consecutive games against the Lions (Week 8), Bears (Week 9), Browns (Week 10), and Texans (Week 12), but they scored just 34 points in their losses to the 49ers and Chargers.

The Bills, meanwhile, have stood out more for their defense in beating the Patriots and Jets the past two weeks.

It’s entirely possible that we could see a high-scoring affair on Saturday night, but it’s not likely based on what has played out in most of this season’s contests between AFC East members.

AFC East Head-to-Head Results in the 2022 NFL Season

  • Dolphins 20, Patriots 7 (Week 1)
  • Dolphins 21, Bills 19 (Week 3)
  • Jets 40, Dolphins 17 (Week 5)
  • Patriots 22, Jets 17 (Week 8)
  • Jets 20, Bills 17 (Week 9)
  • Patriots 10, Jets 3 (Week 11)
  • Bills 24, Patriots 10 (Week 13)
  • Bills 20, Jets 12

Out of eight head-to-head matchups thus far this season, there has been 40 or more points just twice.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction and Picks

Dolphins vs Bills Prediction: Bills to win

Dolphins vs Bills Pick: Dolphins/Bills under (Best Value: under 42.5 @ -115 at FanDuel)

At the time of writing, FanDuel is the only one of our recommended sportsbooks to have the total at 42.5, while the others have it at 42.

That doesn’t make one book better than the other. It is a prime example of why it’s best to have multiple outs in betting. One book can be offering a better number for one bet, while it doesn’t offer as good of a number as other books for another bet.

That said, while I love the under at 42.5, I still feel very comfortable at 42 or 41.5. 41 might be pushing it, given the number of potential scorelines that equal 41.

But with the way things have trended in AFC East rivalry matchups this season and with snow and below freezing temperatures in the forecast through the day and night on gameday, I don’t expect to see a lot of scoring on Saturday night.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Props

Dawson Knox longest reception over 14.5 yards

In 12 games this season, Knox has had at least one reception of 15+ yards in eight games. That includes four times in five home games, including last week against the Jets, a 24-yard touchdown catch late in the first quarter to provide the game’s opening score.

At our recommended sportsbooks, the odds are pretty similar across the board, so you can’t go wrong wherever you choose to bet.

Other NFL Week 15 Content at Betting News

Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.