Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars Preview & Prediction (12/21)
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Sun Dec 21, 2025, 11:12 am ET
Read Time: 7 minutes
nfl
A battle for the top spot in the AFC gets more intriguing in NFL Week 16, as the No. 1 seed Denver Broncos host the No. 3 seed Jacksonville Jaguars.
Denver is laying a consensus three points, while the total sits between 46.5 and 47 after opening at 44.
How should you approach this matchup from a statistical and betting standpoint? I'll break it down below with my Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars predictions and picks.
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Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars Preview & Prediction
Can Bo Nix extend the Broncos win streak to 12?
Broncos vs Jaguars Preview
Since dropping back-to-back games in Weeks 2–3, the Broncos have rattled off 11 straight wins. It hasn't always been pretty – and at times has been downright nauseating if you've been a fan or a backer – but a win is a win, and they're never easy to come by in the NFL.
Their opponent has been on a roll as well. Jacksonville has won five consecutive games and now sits just a couple of games behind the AFC-leading Broncos.
Even if the Jaguars weren't motivated by a push for the conference's top seed, they have added incentive to keep control of the division. The Houston Texans are right on their heels at 9–5, just one game back.
Houston is likely to pick up another win this week, laying more than two touchdowns at home against the lowly Las Vegas Raiders. That makes this matchup even more critical for Trevor Lawrence and company.
Lawrence and the Jags have been an interesting group, to say the least. They've had some frustrating losses and some uncomfortable wins. However, the past three weeks suggest this team may be trending in a more consistent, and possibly dominant, direction.
They're averaging a winning margin of 22.3 points over their last three games, but how much stock should we put into that? One of those wins came against the 2–12 Titans, another against the 3–11 Jets. Their most impressive showing was the 36–19 win over Indianapolis, though that game shifted when the Colts lost their starting quarterback Daniel Jones to injury, forcing backup Riley Leonard to finish it out.
Trevor Lawrence over the past three weeks:
📈 73.8% adjusted comp %
📈 855 total yards
📈 10 total TDs, 0 INTs
📈 123.0 passer rating https://t.co/ad6kJ8LdAN pic.twitter.com/Nszol5zg7C— PFF (@PFF) December 15, 2025
Both of these thoughts can be mutually exclusive: the Jaguars are finding their rhythm at the right time, but the jury is still out on their legitimacy given their softer strength of schedule.
Through Weeks 1–10, when the Jaguars posted a 5–4 record, here's where they ranked in key metrics:
Offense – 22nd in EPA/play | 18th in success rate
Defense – 20th in EPA/play | 22nd in success rate
Now, during their five-game win streak that began in Week 11, Jacksonville's rankings look very different:
Offense – 10th in EPA/play | 11th in success rate
Defense – 1st in EPA/play | 3rd in success rate
Quite the midseason improvement for a team, eh?
Even with the easier schedule, those drastic improvements are promising for Jacksonville. Can we say the same for Denver?
Of the Broncos' 12 wins, only two have come by more than one score. Sean Payton's crew owns an average margin of victory of just 7.1 points. If there were ever a telltale red flag for a team's long-term sustainability, that would be it.
Where Denver has remained steady is on the defensive side of the ball – and quite frankly, that's the main reason they've been able to survive so many close games. The Broncos boast the No. 1 defense in success rate allowed and rank eighth in EPA/play allowed.
Offensively, it's been a different story. Denver ranks 11th in EPA/play, but drops to 21st in success rate. Through the air, Bo Nix has the offense sitting 25th in dropback success rate.
Last week finally felt like a complete performance from the second-year gunslinger. Nix completed 23 of 34 passes for 302 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions against one of the league's top defenses.
Prior to that, his performances felt empty, often leaving you feeling unfulfilled afterward.
That sentiment is evident in his metrics. Over the entire season, he's completing just 63.5% of his passes and ranks 27th in success rate and 24th in CPOE among 33 qualified quarterbacks. And despite his mobility, he's rushed for only 254 yards on 62 attempts.
The Broncos have done a solid job leaning on their run game, along with their defense to create favorable field position, but I'm not convinced that formula will hold for all four quarters this Sunday.
One constant for Jacksonville has been its run defense. Over the course of the entire season, the Jaguars rank second in rush success rate and fifth in rush EPA, while holding opposing backs to just 3.9 yards per carry – tied for the third-fewest in the NFL.
And considering how much better their offense has played as of late, I'm not convinced the Broncos' defense will stand out as much as it often does.
From Week 11 on, Trevor Lawrence has skyrocketed up the quarterback rankings, sitting first in success rate and third in EPA/play. Granted, Bo Nix isn't far behind over that span, ranking fifth in both categories.
Still, it's a clear indication that Lawrence and the Jaguars shouldn't be taken lightly.
I'm not ignoring that Jacksonville has faced a lighter schedule recently, but when you look at overall strength of schedule, Denver ranks as having played the third-easiest slate, and yet – they have an average winning margin over just seven points.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville has played the 26th-easiest schedule and has an average winning margin of 13.1 points.
Broncos vs Jags Prediction
As mentioned, the consensus spread lists the Denver Broncos as three-point favorites. There's heavier juice on the home side, indicating a possible move to -3.5. With that in mind, I'm willing to wait for a potentially better number on the road underdog.
We've seen the improvements from Jacksonville's offense, along with their steadiness on the defensive side of the ball. Normally, I wouldn't buy into a recent surge like the one the Jaguars are on, but their full-season numbers support taking the points against a Broncos team that looks vulnerable and is coming off a bruising matchup with the Packers last week.
At some point, Denver is going to falter. Will it be this week? Perhaps. But even if it isn't, given how closely they've played games all season, there's a strong chance this one comes down to a field goal. That's why I'd rather wait to catch +3.5 with the Jaguars than rush to take the flat three.
Where I do see some value right now, as opposed to waiting, is with the total. I'm surprised the over has drawn so much attention. I understand why an opener in the 44 range felt low, but pushing it all the way up to 47 seems aggressive.
This matchup features two of the league's top defenses in what should feel like a playoff-type atmosphere given the stakes. I expect both teams to prioritize protecting their quarterbacks early and lean on the ground game, which should lead to fewer scoring opportunities and more time coming off the clock.
Additionally, the Broncos boast the league's No. 1 red-zone defense, allowing touchdowns on just 38.5% of opponents' trips inside the 20. The Jaguars rank in the top half as well, allowing a 58.5% touchdown rate – a number that has improved to 43% over their past three games.
Best Bet: Broncos/Jaguars Under 47 (-110)
NFL Record: 84-68-1 (+5.68 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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