Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers Preview & Picks (12/21): Drought in Dallas?
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Sun Dec 21, 2025, 11:30 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers head to Jerry World to take on Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys.
Currently sitting as the No. 5 seed in the AFC, the Chargers are looking to protect their playoff positioning with a road win in the Lone Star State. Dallas, meanwhile, faces a far steeper climb. The Cowboys need to win out and also have the Philadelphia Eagles lose their remaining games to capture the division and sneak into the postseason.
With plenty at stake for both sides, let's dive into our Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers preview and picks.
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Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers Preview & Picks
Even with his injury, can Justin Herbert produce enough offensively to keep up with the Cowboys?
Cowboys vs Chargers Preview
Despite Dallas sitting at 6-7-1 and needing just about a miracle to reach the postseason, the Cowboys remain favored in this matchup. Oddsmakers opened Dallas at -2.5 with a total around 48.5. Depending on the sportsbook, the spread now sits between -2 and -2.5, while the total has climbed to 49.5.
So why is Dallas favored, and why haven't bettors rushed to back Los Angeles?
It starts with health. Justin Herbert underwent surgery on his non-throwing hand a few weeks ago, and it's clear he isn't fully healthy. Even so, Herbert has guided the Chargers to a three-game win streak. That run began with a 31-14 win against Las Vegas in the game he suffered the injury, followed by a 22-19 overtime victory over the Eagles, and then last week's 16-13 road upset of the Chiefs.
The production, however, has been modest. Herbert hasn't topped 210 passing yards or 19 completions in any of those games, and he's posted a 4-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio during that stretch. Even the week before the injury wasn't encouraging, as he completed just 10 of 18 passes for 81 yards and an interception in a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville.
Los Angeles is a solid team, but they're flawed – and more importantly, banged up at key positions.
On the other side, while the Cowboys' record is underwhelming, their offense has been one of the league's best on a weekly basis. Dallas ranks sixth in both offensive EPA per play and success rate, leads the NFL in yards per game at 396.9, and sits fifth in scoring at 29.1 points per game.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are averaging 22.5 points per game on the season and just 18.8 over their past four contests. The question becomes whether or not they're capable of keeping pace with Dak Prescott and company.
If the Dallas defense plays the way it has for most of the season, the answer could be yes. The Cowboys rank 30th in both defensive EPA per play and success rate allowed. While there have been minor signs of improvement lately, it's far from a unit you can trust. After all, J.J. McCarthy just hung 34 points on this defense on the road in primetime last week – so even a hobbled Herbert should be capable of engineering a few scoring drives.
Cowboys vs Chargers Picks
I can't believe I'm doing this, but I'll be betting the under in a game involving the Dallas Cowboys. That's right – I'm taking under 50.5 points, available at -118.
As bad as Dallas' defense has been, it could look a bit more respectable given how underwhelming the Chargers' offense has been lately, especially with Justin Herbert dealing with his injury and an offensive line that's also banged up.
Since Week 12, Los Angeles ranks 24th in offensive success rate and 21st in EPA per play. Defensively, however, the Chargers have been a top-10 unit across the board all season. If they're going to keep this game competitive, it's going to have to be on the back of that defense, as it has been various times this year.
In the red zone, Los Angeles ranks 27th, scoring touchdowns on just 50% of its trips inside their opponent's 20-yard line. Dallas isn't much better, sitting 19th at a rate of 57%, and that number has dipped to 41.7% over their past three games.
Both teams also feature two of the best kickers in football in Brandon Aubrey and Cameron Dicker, so it wouldn't be surprising to see coaches settle for longer field goal attempts inside a dome rather than forcing a play on fourth down.
I'm a bit surprised the over continues to take money. Not so much from the general public, but from sharper bettors who actually impact the line. I would have expected this total to hover closer to 48.5. The fact that I can grab under 50.5 at -118 feels like a solid spot to take advantage of an inflated number.
Bet Bet: Cowboys / Chargers Under 50.5 (-118)
NFL Record: 85-69-1 (+5.53 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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