Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns Preview & Picks (1/4): Buy into the Bengals
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Sat Jan 03, 2026, 2:25 pm ET
Read Time: 8 minutes
nfl
On Sunday, at 1:00 p.m. ET, the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns will play their final game of the season.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals enter this matchup as 7.5-point favorites following back-to-back blowout wins, while the total is sitting at 44.5 across most sportsbooks.
Can Cincinnati close out the season on a three-game win streak, or does Shedeur Sanders have one final win to add to his rookie-year resume?
I'll break it all down in my Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns preview and picks.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns Preview & Picks
The Bengals are looking to end their season on a three-game win streak.
Bengals vs Browns Preview
Sure, this game doesn't mean much beyond pride for either side, but both teams are still fighting hard through the final week.
The Bengals defeated the Dolphins 45–21 two weeks ago, then followed that up with a 37–14 bludgeoning at home against the Cardinals last Sunday.
On the other side, the Browns spoiled the Pittsburgh Steelers' chances of claiming the AFC North with a 13–6 outright underdog win last Sunday. That snapped a four-game losing streak for Sanders and company.
While there's no question the Browns would love to end their season on a high note by defeating back-to-back divisional opponents, it feels like last week may have been their Super Bowl.
It was their peak – playing spoiler to a division rival and putting a dent in Pittsburgh's postseason hopes.
After riding that emotional high, Cleveland now has to face one of the hottest offenses in football and an improving defense, and they'll be doing so without a slew of their top players.
Cleveland will be without tight ends Harold Fannin Jr. and David Njoku, along with running back Quinshon Judkins, who was placed on injured reserve a couple of weeks ago. Additionally, the Browns will be without linebackers Carson Schwesinger and Winston Reid.
It does appear Myles Garrett will be good to go as he continues his pursuit of the single-season sack record. Garrett sits at 22 sacks on the year, just a half-sack shy of tying the record and one full sack away from claiming it outright.
At this point, that feels like the most important storyline in this game for Cleveland more than anything else.
Garrett and the Browns defense will be tasked with slowing down a Bengals offense that, since Joe Burrow's return in Week 13, ranks ninth in both EPA per play and success rate.
As for Cincy, they'll square off against Shedeur Sanders, who made his first start in Week 12. From that point on, he's led the Cleveland offense to a ranking of 31st in success rate and 30th in EPA/play. They're 30th or worse in both the passing and rushing departments as well, so nothing has been clicking on that side of the ball – and that may continue with Sanders set to miss his favorite target in Harold Fannin Jr.
Since Sanders' first start in Week 12 at Las Vegas, Fannin has been targeted 44 times, hauling in 28 receptions for 309 yards and four touchdowns.
Fannin has accounted for 27% of Sanders' completions over that span, along with four of his seven touchdown passes (57%).
Harold Fannin Jr. now has the 9th-most receiving yards as a rookie TE in NFL history. pic.twitter.com/daN0X8PdHM
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) December 29, 2025
Not only will that be a challenge without his favorite target, but it comes against an improving Cincinnati defense. Believe it or not, a unit that was once the worst defense in the NFL has improved drastically over the past five games, climbing to 11th in both EPA/play and success rate. They're also top-15 in both dropback and rushing metrics, including a fourth-place ranking in rush success rate allowed.
There's been plenty of discourse surrounding Sanders this season, much of it rooted in opinion rather than objectivity. So let's stick to the facts. Since Week 12, among 33 qualified quarterbacks, Shedeur Sanders ranks 31st in both EPA/play and success rate, along with 21st in CPOE.
Over that same stretch, Joe Burrow ranks third in CPOE, fifth in EPA/play and seventh in success rate. Obviously, no one is directly comparing these two quarterbacks, but it's important context when evaluating this matchup.
What really stands out in this matchup, aside from the improvements on Cincinnati's defensive side, is the regression of Cleveland's defense.
The Browns fielded one of the league's top defensive units for much of the season, but that group has tailed off as the year has gone on.
Over their past three games, Cleveland still ranks seventh in EPA/play allowed, but has fallen to 20th in success rate and, more notably, 29th in both rush EPA and rush success rate allowed.
That regression didn't suddenly appear three weeks ago. It's been building throughout the second half of the season, but the impact has been most noticeable recently. When you factor in the injuries on that side of the ball and a matchup against one of the hottest offenses in the league, it's a poor recipe for Cleveland.
Bengals vs Browns Picks
Given the current trajectories of both teams, it's hard not to side with the home favorite. From a metrics standpoint, talent versus talent, combined with one team coming off what feels like its peak performance while the other is trying to close the season on a win streak and play for its coach's job, all points me toward the Bengals.
I do lean strongly toward Cincinnati covering the -7.5, but I'm not a big fan of laying more than the key number of seven, especially in a divisional game. What I would recommend instead is teasing them down. With a standard six-point teaser, you can move the Bengals from -7.5 to -1.5 and pair them with another team. That way, you only need Burrow and the Bengals to win by two points, which is far less stressful than needing them to cover more than a touchdown.
In the prop market, I do have some action.
This sets up as a strong spot for running back Chase Brown, who has really started to emerge over the past three weeks. During that stretch, he's averaging 15.7 carries for 73.3 yards at 4.7 yards per carry, with three rushing touchdowns and two receiving scores.
Now, he'll face a vulnerable Browns run defense that not only ranks 29th in both rush EPA and rush success rate allowed, but has also surrendered 5.1 yards per carry over the past three weeks.
Here's how the last four starting running backs have fared against Cleveland:
Jaylen Warren: 12 carries, 64 yards
James Cook: 16 carries, 117 yards, 2 TDs
D'Andre Swift: 18 carries, 98 yards, 2 TDs
Tony Pollard: 25 carries, 161 yards, 2 TDs
The best number available on Brown's rushing yards prop is 59.5 at -115, while his anytime touchdown prop is priced at -110.
There is some concern about Samaje Perine siphoning off red-zone snaps, but Brown still leads the backfield comfortably. He holds a 46–15 snap advantage on the season, and a 15–5 edge over the past three weeks.
I expect Brown to be in another strong position to find the end zone on Sunday, and I'll be laying -110 in hopes that he does.
Additionally, instead of targeting his rushing yards, I'm looking to his receiving production. Since Burrow's return, Brown has averaged 4.8 receptions on five targets for 33.4 receiving yards per game, along with three receiving touchdowns.
His receiving yards prop is listed as low as 17.5, with -118 odds attached. While the Browns have been solid against running backs in the passing game, this number still feels too low given how effective Brown has been in this role with Burrow back in the mix.
Brown has cleared this mark in 11 of 16 games this season, including eight of his last nine, and I'm expecting him to do so one final time.
Best Bets:
- Chase Brown Anytime Touchdown (-110 at Lucky Rebel)
- Chase Brown Over 17.5 Rec Yds (-118 at Lucky Rebel)
Still Didn't Get Your NFL Fix?
Follow me on X @dannyburke5 for all my picks, analysis and plenty more. Also be sure to follow Betting News on 'X' and Twitch to catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day and check out our Free Expert Picks for every major sports league.
More NFL News
NFL Betting News
NFL QB Futures Odds: Week 1 Starters & Next Team Markets
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News
Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.