Christmas Day | NFL Week 17 Breakdown & Best Bets: Jingle Slips & Christmas Picks
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Tue Dec 23, 2025, 9:11 pm ET
Read Time: 11 minutes
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Merry (almost) Christmas. It's December 23rd and we've got just two more nights till the big day. We've got three NFL Games on Christmas Day, four of the six teams already eliminated from the playoffs and three of the six teams playing without their starting QBs.
With so much to talk about, I had to tag in the one and only, Danny Burke to help me go through all of them. Let's jump straight into it.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
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Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
Christmas Day in D.C.
We start the holiday in Washington D.C. with the Commanders taking on the Dallas Cowboys. Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention but with this being a divisional game, it still feels like we could have some fun.
The Commanders are without Jayden Daniels for the rest of the year and we saw Marcus Mariota leave last week's game with a hand injury. Reports haven't been made official yet but it's looking like a real possibility that the 39-year old Josh Johnson will get his first start of the year.
Johnson's played for seven different teams in his 11-year career and he's only made nine career starts. He's averaged 175.2 pass yards per game in these nine starts, throwing 9 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. His career completion percentage of 56.0% leaves a ton to be desired and it's probably why he's only started nine games in his career.
The Cowboys offense has been great this year but the defense is horrendous. The offense ranks 6th in points but the defense ranks 31st in points allowed. The offense ranks 1st in passing yards but the defense is dead last in passing yards allowed. Dallas is 4th in yards per play, but 30th in opponent yards per play. Despite all the good they do on offense, the defense finds a way to erase it.
For Washington it's been bad on both sides. The defense was always bad, ranking 26th in points allowed, 26th in pass yards allowed and 30th in opponent yards per play. On the offensive side, the Commanders were just never healthy. Multiple missed games from Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin and the loss of Austin Ekeler in Week 2. It just wasn't their year.
Two really bad defenses is why I think this game might be more fun than people expect.
Quarterback Matchup
- Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott (3-5; 2024 – 247.3 YPG | 11 TD | 8 INT)
- Washington Commanders: Marcus Mariota (2-0; 2024 – 183.0 YPG | 4 TD | 0 INT)
Varun's Best Bet: Javonte Williams o74.5 Rushing Yards
This one's a little chalk but this Commanders defense has just been so bad it's hard for me to stay off it. Washington ranks 29th in rush yards allowed this year and 28th in opponent yards per carry. Javonte carried the ball just 9 times against the Chargers and it's because the Cowboys played from behind for nearly the entire game.
The Cowboys come into this game as a 7-point favorite, on the road; in a divisional game. Bookmakers are telling us this is a game the Cowboys should win by multiple scores and if that's the case I'm expecting some extensive usage from Javonte late in this one.
Williams signed a 1-year deal with the Cowboys before the season started and it looks like the team's keen on keeping him here. That being said, Williams can do a lot to add a few zeros to that contract in the last few weeks and this is the perfect matchup to do it against.
Danny's Best Bet: Under 51 (-110)
Last week, I talked myself into betting under 50.5 between the Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Chargers. After 38 points were scored in the first half, I couldn't help but laugh at myself for how dumb that decision looked. I mean, come on – it's the Cowboys defense. Betting an under with that group feels like a death sentence.
And yet, only 13 points were scored in the second half, and the total barely crept over, landing at 51. So while it was still a loss, the read itself wasn't as far off as it initially appeared.
Now here I am, going right back to the well. I'm taking the under once again.
Much like I wrote last week, as bad as Dallas' defense has been, there have been slight signs of improvement as the season has gone on. More importantly, this is a divisional matchup on a short week, and the Washington Commanders may be forced to turn to third-string quarterback Josh Johnson, after Marcus Mariota exited last game with an injury. Johnson completed five of nine passes for 43 yards, took a sack and threw one truly egregious interception.
Even if Mariota ends up playing, this total still feels a bit inflated. But I'm operating under the assumption that he won't, especially after missing Monday's practice and with both teams effectively having nothing to play for.
Here's hoping for an ugly, low-scoring game so we can focus on the holiday festivities and not feel obligated to sit through what could be a very rough watch.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Coal for Christmas
Both the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings are getting nothing but coal for Christmas. Both teams vastly under performed their expectations this year and both teams have looked just bad at times this year. One of Detroit's worse losses of the year came against this same Minnesota Vikings team against the one the call 'Nine' (J.J. McCarthy).
The Lions offense ranks 2nd in points but the defense is 22nd in points allowed. The defense ranks 25th in pass yards allowed but the offense ranks 3rd in pass yards per game. The Lions have been a tale of two teams and this defense really hasn't done their job.
Jared Goff's averaging 269.1 pass yards per game this year with 32 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. The issue with Goff is that he hans't been good under pressure. He ranks 19th in passing grade under pressure, completing just 48.1% of his throws with two touchdowns, two interceptions and a passer rating of 68.6.
For the Vikings it'll be Brock Bosmer making his 2nd career start. The undrafted rookie's got one career start under his belt and it didn't really go well. Brosmer completed 63.3% of his pass attempts for 126 yards and 4 interceptions. This was against a much better Seahawks defense but this being just his second start, it might get ugly.
Quarterback Matchup
- Detroit Lions: Jared Goff (15-2; 2024 – 273.3 YPG | 37 TD | 12 INT)
- Minnesota Vikings: Max Brosmer (2024 – N/A)
Varun's Best Bet: Aaron Jones o84.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-110)
I'm looking to target another RB on Christmas Day and it's because of how much we've seen this Detroit defense regress. Over the last four weeks, the Lions rank 29th in rush yards allowed to opposing backs and have allowed opponents to average 6.0 yards per carry in their last three games.
Last week we saw both Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren gash this defense. Jones finished with 93 yards from scrimmage last week, 85 of those coming on the ground. In Jones lone start with Bosmer under center, he saw 4 targets, catching all 4 for 22 yards.
This week the Vikings could be without Jordan Mason and with an undrafted rookie under center, I'm expecting Head Coach Kevin O'Connell to lean just a little more on the veteran, Jones.
Danny's Best Bet: Max Brosmer Over 29.5 Pass Attempts (-115)
If Josh Johnson didn't pique your interest, then how about Max Brosmer?
The last time we saw the rookie start an NFL game, it ended in a 26–0 loss for Minnesota in Seattle. Brosmer completed 19 of 30 passes for just 126 yards and threw four interceptions.
I'm not expecting a prolific performance from Brosmer by any means, but I do envision him playing better this time around. Detroit's defense has continued to regress as the season has gone on, particularly in the secondary. Over their past five games, the Lions rank 26th in dropback EPA and 16th in dropback success rate.
For the season, opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game against Detroit, which ranks 23rd in the league. That number has jumped to 42 attempts per game over their last three contests.
With Jordan Mason out, Aaron Jones dealing with injuries, and the Vikings likely trailing for much of this game and forced into catch-up mode, Brosmer should be asked to throw early and often. If he's even moderately efficient, that volume alone should push him past 30 attempts.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Klaus in Kansas City
This hasn't been a fun year for Kansas City. Not only will this be the first time they miss the playoffs in the Patrick Mahomes era, but Mahomes looks like he could miss at least a few weeks next year. The Chiefs lost Mahomes to an ACL tear two weeks ago and last week we saw Gardener Minshew take over under center.
Minshew suffered a torn ACL of his own in the first half of their game against the Titans and we saw Chris Oladokun get his first ever NFL action. The third year QB came in and completed 11 of his 16 passes for 111 yards and no touchdowns. Isaiah Pacheco lead the team with 7 targets and we could see the young QB leaning heavily on his RB.
On the other side it's the Denver Broncos, arguably the best defense in the NFL. The team ranks 5th in points allowed, 2nd in opponent redzone efficiency, 10th in opponent pass yards and 2nd in opponent rush yards. The Broncos can complete the season sweep of Kansas City and possibly lock up the AFC West in one weekend. They'll need a win and a Chargers loss to seal it.
With no control over the Chargers game, I'm expecting the Broncos to go all in against this young Chiefs' third string QB.
Quarterback Matchup
- Denver Broncos: Bo Nix (10-7; 2024 – 222.1 YPG | 29 TD | 12 INT)
- Kansas City Chiefs: Chris Oladokun (2024 – N/A)
Varun's Best Bet: Courtland Sutton o61.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
This one's a little tough just because it's hard to believe the Chiefs will keep this one close. The 14-point spread gives me pause but after the way the Broncos looked last week, it feels like Head Coach Sean Payton comes out to prove a point. Sutton's seen 32 targets over the last 3 games and has finished each game with double digit targets.
Sutton's seen a 38.1% first read target share during that time and the Chiefs look like they'll once again be without Trent McDuffie. In their meeting earlier this year, Sutton recorded 8 targets but caught just 4 for 59 yards. This week with no McDuffie, he's going to take advantage.
Danny's Best Bet: RJ Harvey Over 48.5 Rush Yards (-110)
If Josh Johnson and Max Brosmer didn't get your gears churning, then you're really going to love the Chiefs' third-string quarterback, Chris Oladokun.
You probably hadn't heard of Oladokun until he replaced Gardner Minshew last Sunday. Thrust into action at Tennessee, he held his own, completing 11 of 16 passes for 111 yards with no touchdowns or turnovers. He averaged just under seven yards per completion, though he was also sacked four times.
I don't have a strong grasp on what to expect from Oladokun moving forward, but I do have a much clearer read on what this matchup will provide for the Broncos' backfield – a plethora of opportunities to run the ball.
Rookie running back RJ Harvey has quietly carved out a meaningful role in Denver's offense. Over his past four games, he's scored five touchdowns while averaging 13.4 carries and 51 rushing yards per contest.
Denver should have little trouble controlling this game and playing from ahead for most of it. With that expected game script – and before things get out of hand and starters begin to rotate – Harvey is well-positioned to clear his rushing yards prop of 48.5. That number feels too low given how heavily the Broncos should lean on the ground game here.
Last week, in the Chiefs' first game without their regulars and with their postseason fate already sealed, they allowed Tony Pollard to rush for 102 yards on 21 carries, while backup Tyjae Spears added 52 yards on 13 attempts.
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