Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams Divisional Round Preview & Prop Bets
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Sun Jan 18, 2026, 2:03 pm ET
Read Time: 9 minutes
nfl
A trip to the NFC Championship is on the line as the Chicago Bears host the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round on Sunday night.
Matthew Stafford and the Rams opened as high as -4.5, with the total set at 51.5. Since then, the market has adjusted – the spread now sits between -3.5 and -4, while the total has dipped into the 48.5-49 range.
Sunday night's matchup could turn into one of the coldest games ever played at Soldier Field. Temperatures are projected to hover around 15 degrees, with double-digit winds expected to add another layer of difficulty.
#Bears are set for the late game Sunday vs the #LA #Rams
Bundle up if you're going. This will likely fall into the top 10 coldest games ever at Soldier Field.
NWS model blend has been insisting on near zero wind chills and only in the teens for kickoff temperature about 6PM… https://t.co/XKJMNrlAqg pic.twitter.com/EfSEVWVzxA
— WindyCity Weather and News (@WindyCityWxMan) January 13, 2026
So the question becomes: can this warm-weather Rams team deal with the cold and knock off this magical Bears team, or does Caleb Williams have another miracle up his sleeve?
Let's dive into the matchup below with my Bears vs. Rams Divisional Round preview and bets.
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Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams Divisional Round Preview & Prop Bets
Can Matt Stafford get the Rams one step closer to another Super Bowl with a win on Sunday?
Bears vs Rams Preview
Both teams enter this matchup fresh off thrilling Wild Card victories – and fittingly, both came against familiar opponents.
For the Bears, it was a rubber match against their longtime rival Green Bay Packers. Trailing 21–3 at halftime, Chicago put together one of the most miraculous comebacks in NFL history, storming back for a 31–27 win after outscoring Green Bay 28–6 in the second half.
On the other side, Los Angeles wasn't just playing to stay alive in its quest for a Super Bowl, but to exact revenge for an earlier 31–28 home loss to the Panthers. The Rams did get their revenge, though it was far from a comfortable victory.
LA was minutes away from defeat, trailing 31–27 with two-and-a-half minutes remaining after a Bryce Young touchdown to Jalen Coker. But it didn't take long for the league's potential MVP to respond. Stafford needed just seven plays to engineer a 71-yard, game-winning drive, capped by a 19-yard touchdown pass to Colby Parkinson to seal a 34–31 win.
OMG STAFFORD TO PARKINSON FOR THE LEAD!
LARvsCAR on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/qLSKKdmoBO— NFL (@NFL) January 11, 2026
After emotional, roller-coaster wins, these two offensive masterminds, in Sean McVay and Ben Johnson, get to clash head to head.
So how do these offenses stack up against one another?
It was a slow start to the season for Caleb Williams and the Bears' offense, as they struggled to find a consistent rhythm. That's to be expected for any unit adjusting to a new system, especially with a quarterback playing under his third head coach in just his second year. But the offense eventually came together, finishing the regular season ranked eighth in EPA per play and 11th in success rate.
Williams and company truly began to hit their stride in Week 12, when they scored 31 points against the Steelers. From that point forward, the Bears' offense ranked fifth in overall EPA per play and eighth in success rate. The most notable improvement came on the ground, where Chicago finished top four in both rush EPA per play and rush success rate over that stretch.
The biggest flaw, however, has been their inability to score early. That issue surfaced again last week against Green Bay, when the Bears managed just three points in the first half. On the season, they're averaging 11 first-half points per game, a number that has dropped to just 8.0 over their last three contests.
The second half has been a different story. Chicago is averaging 15 points per game after halftime, and that figure jumps to 20.3 points per game across their last three outings.
As for their opponent, we already know how dangerous this Rams offense can be. They're led by a potential MVP at quarterback, arguably the best coach in the league in Sean McVay, one of the league's top receivers in Puka Nacua, and a strong backfield tandem of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. That collection of weapons powered Los Angeles to an offense that finished first in success rate and second in EPA per play.
Chicago's defense, meanwhile, has been a vulnerable and flawed unit for much of the season, and that's been evident on a weekly basis. Yet somehow, they've managed to survive. A big part of that has been the magic generated by Caleb Williams and the offense, but turnovers have also played a major role. The Bears led the league in turnover differential at +22, recording 33 total takeaways.
That fortune nearly ran out last week. Williams threw two interceptions, and Chicago failed to recover three separate fumbles against Green Bay – yet they still found a way to advance.
The Rams have also been solid in the turnover department, posting a +11 differential with 26 total takeaways on the season.
Ultimately, this sets up as a difficult spot for Chicago's defense. The Bears have allowed 6.0 yards per play this season, and there's little reason to expect improvement this late in the year, especially against one of the most dynamic offenses in the league.
So how can the Bears survive in this game?
For starters, they'll be hoping the frigid conditions work in their favor. Since 2003, dome teams traveling outdoors for playoff games in sub-30-degree temperatures are just 2-11 straight up and 5-8 against the spread. I'm not one to blindly follow trends – context always matters, and every team and situation is different – but it's worth noting in a spot like this. Indoor teams playing outdoors this late in the season, in extreme cold, is a meaningful variable.
That said, let's not kid ourselves. Matthew Stafford has played enough cold-weather football to prove he's capable of producing. Just last season in the Divisional Round against the eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, Stafford threw for 324 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a snowy, cold Philadelphia setting. Kyren Williams also added 106 rushing yards on 19 carries in that game.
Still, Bear Weather is a real thing – and the team and fan base fully embrace it and use it to their advantage. The conditions, combined with the Rams having to travel across the country in back-to-back weeks, are two major reasons the betting market initially shifted toward Chicago.
But just because the Bears welcome this type of weather doesn't mean they're immune to it. These conditions can be rough on their offense as well, especially when facing one of the league's tougher defensive units. The Rams finished the regular season ranked seventh in both EPA per play and success rate allowed.
Interestingly, that defense has shown signs of regression. Since Week 15, Los Angeles has slipped to 22nd in EPA per play allowed and 12th in success rate allowed. Their season-long average of 5.2 yards per play allowed has also climbed to 5.9 over their last three games.
And while this Rams team looks formidable on the surface, what teams like the Panthers, in two different matchups, and even the Falcons have been able to do against them should offer some optimism for what this Bears offense is capable of achieving.
I've got no interest in betting a side in this game, but I do have a strong lean toward the under. Even at 49, I'd still gravitate toward the under, though I'm going to wait and see if this number climbs back to 50. If it does, I'll very likely end up playing the under.
The weather conditions, combined with the Bears' tendency to start slowly on offense, point toward a game that can stay on the lower end. That said, since I'm not getting the best of the number, and there's always the possibility that the Bears' defense can't stop a nosebleed, I'm going to show a bit of patience and attack the prop market instead.
Bears vs Rams Prop Bets
- Colby Parkinson Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
- Kyren Williams Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Let's start with tight end Colby Parkinson, as I'm backing him to clear 20 receiving yards in this matchup. He'll be facing a Chicago defense that has allowed opposing tight ends to average 5.8 receptions for 51.5 receiving yards per game this season.
After the Rams' starting tight end Tyler Higbee went down with an injury, Parkinson stepped into the No. 1 role beginning in Week 15. Over that stretch, he's averaged 3.8 receptions on 5.6 targets for 44 receiving yards per game.
McVay frequently dials up tight end screens, and Parkinson has become a focal point in that part of the offense. Even if he isn't, this still shapes up as a favorable matchup against a Bears defense that's allowed 19 different tight ends to surpass 19.5 receiving yards in a game this season.
Sticking with the Rams' offensive personnel, I'm also targeting Kyren Williams to go over 10.5 receiving yards. While Chicago allows just four receptions per game to opposing running backs, those catches are still totaling roughly 28 yards. Seventeen opposing running backs have cleared 10.5 receiving yards against the Bears, and I expect Williams to do the same.
On the season, Williams is averaging two receptions for 16.6 yards per game, and he's gone over this 10.5-yard mark in five of his last six contests. In a cold-weather game with double-digit winds, there should be added opportunities for checkdowns from Matthew Stafford to his reliable back.
With the Rams' vertical threats stretching the field, the Bears' secondary is often forced to play deep, opening up space underneath and allowing Williams to pick up yards after the catch. A couple of receptions should be more than enough to help him clear this number.
Best Bets:
- Colby Parkinson Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-111 at Lucky Rebel)
- Kyren Williams Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at Lucky Rebel)
NFL Record: 105-89-1 (+5.2 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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