Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Playoff Preview & Bets (1/10)
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Thu Jan 08, 2026, 3:13 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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In a span of 35 days, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers will have played three times.
The first meeting took place at Lambeau Field, where Caleb Williams' end-zone interception sealed a 28–21 Packers victory. Just a couple of weeks later at Soldier Field – in one of the wildest games in recent NFL memory – the Bears responded with a 22–16 overtime win on a game-winning touchdown.
Now, in the first round of the postseason, we get a rubber match in the NFL's oldest rivalry.
As we did for the two prior meetings, with me as the resident Bears fan and fellow staff writer and NFL analyst Varun Sharma – a.k.a. "V" – representing the Packers, we'll both be sharing our best bets for this matchup below.
Let's dive into both of our Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers playoff preview and bets.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
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Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Playoff Preview & Bets
Can Caleb Williams and the Bears eliminate the Packers from the postseason on Saturday?
Danny's Bet: 1st Half Under 23.5 Points (-130 at Lucky Rebel)
As a die-hard Bears fan, this game terrifies me. Not just because of the team's obvious flaws or the back-to-back losses heading into the postseason, but because the idea of the Cheeseheads ending this magical season on Chicago's home turf would be devastating.
That said, realistically, this was probably the best possible first-round matchup for the Bears.
Chicago is more familiar with this opponent than any other playoff team, and they've played Green Bay tight in both meetings.
I don't have a strong feel for a side or a winner. On paper, the Packers feel like the right side, especially given how vulnerable this Bears defense has been against the run all season and how much the secondary has struggled over the past month. Where I do see an edge, though, is with the total.
On Monday's episode of "Any Given Wager," I mentioned interest in the full-game under 46.5. After digging in a bit more, I ultimately landed on the first-half under instead.
I was able to grab 23.5 at -115. The best number available now is still 23.5, but with -130 juice. Even at that price, I think it's one of the strongest angles in this matchup.
As poor as this Bears defense has been, they've been surprisingly solid in the red zone.
For the season, Chicago ranks 15th in opponent red-zone efficiency, allowing touchdowns on 56% of trips. That figure has dropped to 42.8% over their last three games. While the defense does still allow 6.0 yards per play (29th), they've been much better once the field shortens.
In the second meeting with Green Bay, Dennis Allen's defense held the Packers to 0-for-5 on red-zone trips. They also limited another familiar opponent, the Lions, to just 1-for-4 last Sunday.
There's no doubt Jordan Love and the Packers offense will find success against Chicago's defense at times. But early in the game, with adrenaline high and the crowd at its loudest, the Bears should be able to use that energy to do enough to prevent Green Bay from turning drives into multiple touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball, Chicago has been a slow and underwhelming first-half team, especially in this matchup.
In the first meeting, Green Bay led 14–3 heading into the third quarter. In the second meeting, the Packers were again in front, this time 6–0 at halftime.
This trend isn't limited to just these games. The Bears have routinely struggled to get their offense to gel until the second half.
Chicago is averaging 11.5 first-half points per game this season, but that number has dipped to 7.0 over their last three contests. By comparison, they're averaging 14.1 points per game in the second half (fourth-most in the NFL), a mark that's climbed to 16.3 over their last three games.
Both teams, particularly the Bears, should look to establish the run early, control time of possession, and wear down the opposing defense to open up play-action looks later in the game.
All signs point to a tightly contested, lower-scoring first half. Both regular-season meetings stayed under 23.5 first half points – and with playoff pressure, double-digit winds and the potential for snow, this scoring environment sets up even tougher the third time around.
V's Bet: Josh Jacobs Over 75.5 Rush Yards (-110 at Lucky Rebel)
I'm terrified for Saturday. The Packers are in Chicago for Wild Card Weekend and Jordan Love's finally back on the field. Every single year it feels like I forget how stressful it can feel when you're team makes the postseason. All you're left with is a win or go home scenario and there's no feeling like it.
The game this week comes on Saturday, with forecasts showing freezing temperatures, plenty of snow and 18-22 miles per hour winds. Soldier Field's one of the most unforgiving stadiums in the NFL and it's the perfect place to renew this storied rivalry.
This will be the third meeting between the two teams and the most important by far. With the gravity of this week's matchup, I'm going to one of the few veterans on this Packers team: Josh Jacobs. Jacobs didn't play in the Packers last game against the Vikings and he was limited to just 13 snaps against the Ravens and 28 snaps against the Bears. He's had a bit of a down year, but a lot Jacobs' issues were because of his health.
Jacobs was dealing with a sprained left ankle, a bone bruise and a quad contusion; all on his left leg. Now with two weeks off and time to get healthy, Jacobs' is saying he's feeling the best he's felt in weeks. His importance to this Packers offense can't be underestimated and it was on display in Green Bay's home win over the Bears. Jacobs ran the ball 20 times, averaged 4.3 yards per carry and finished with 86 yards and a touchdown.
Chicago ranks 21st in rush EPA/play allowed, 27th in rush yards allowed, 29th in opponent yards per carry and just gave up back to back big games to Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Bears lost both of those games and if Matt LaFleur was paying attention, he knows he'll have to feed his guy.
See you Saturday. Go Pack Go!
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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