Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions Preview & Bets (11/4): Ben Johnson Bounce Back
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Sat Jan 03, 2026, 12:16 pm ET
Read Time: 7 minutes
nfl
This final game of the 2025–26 season for the Detroit Lions will be played at Soldier Field on Sunday afternoon against the Chicago Bears.
The 8–8 Lions have nothing to play for but pride, while the 11–5 Bears are still in the hunt for the No. 2 seed. Chicago can secure it with a win over Detroit, or with a Philadelphia loss to Washington.
Will we see an inspired effort from Dan Campbell's group, or will Ben Johnson's squad bounce back after a thrilling, high-scoring loss on Sunday Night Football? Here's how I'm approaching this matchup in my Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions preview and bets.
Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions Preview & Bets
Can Ben Johnson exact revenge against his former team?
Bears vs Lions Preview
Oddsmakers opened the Bears as 2.5-point favorites, with the total set at 49.5. Chicago is still favored, but most books have the line at -3, while the total has climbed to 50.5.
If someone who hasn't watched much football since Week 2 glanced at this spread, they'd probably be confused. Earlier this season, the Bears traveled to the Motor City for Ben Johnson's second game as a head coach, which also came against his former team, and it resulted in their worst loss of the year. Detroit pummelled Chicago 52–21.
As ugly as that defeat was, it ended up being something of a blessing in disguise. From that point on, the Bears won four straight and eventually went on to take 11 of their next 14 games.
Detroit, meanwhile, carried momentum after that win and opened the season 5–2. Since then, though, the Lions have gone 3–6, eliminating themselves from postseason contention and entering this matchup on a three-game losing streak.
There's no question this Lions team is talented, but they consistently played down to their competition, showed glaring defensive issues, and began to struggle once Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties.
In Week 10, Campbell took the reins against the Commanders and helped his offense put up 44 points in a 22-point win. On the surface, that's impressive, but Washington owns one of the worst defenses in the NFL. With the talent Detroit has, almost any coordinator could have mustered a quality outing in that spot. Still, Campbell took it as a vote of confidence and declared he'd be calling the plays the rest of the way, despite the offense performing adequately up to that point.
From Week 10 on, with Campbell calling plays, the Lions went 3–5. They fell to 20th in success rate, and despite having one of the best running back duos in the NFL in Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, the run game suffered significantly – dropping to 22nd in rush success rate and 21st in rush EPA over that span.
Meanwhile, over that same stretch, the Bears have figured out their ground attack and now rank second in success rate and fifth in EPA/play. An emerging duo in D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai has taken over as the NFC North's top backfield.
D'Andre Swift + Kyle Monangai = ELITE DUO https://t.co/eoIhidGggp
— Swift Sports Network (@SwiftyNetwork) January 1, 2026
Chicago has also climbed to seventh in both overall EPA/play and success rate since Week 10, ranking ahead of Detroit in both categories.
Defensively, both teams have their flaws. Over the full season, the Bears rank 25th in success rate and 20th in EPA, while the Lions sit 10th in success rate and 13th in EPA.
However, narrowing the sample from Week 10 on tells a different story. Chicago has improved to 14th in EPA per play and 19th in success rate, while Detroit has fallen to 24th in EPA per play and 12th in success rate.
Both defenses have struggled against the run, ranking 21st or worse in both rush EPA and rush success rate.
The Bears' secondary has also been a step ahead of Detroit's, largely due to turnovers. Chicago still leads the league in turnover differential at +22, with 32 total takeaways – 22 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries. Detroit, meanwhile, has just 18 takeaways on the season (12 interceptions, six fumble recoveries) and owns a modest +4 turnover margin.
Jared Goff has said he plans to play in this otherwise meaningless game, but the Lions will be shorthanded in key areas. Detroit is expected to be without offensive linemen Penei Sewell and Trystan Colon, along with linebacker Alex Anzalone, defensive tackle Alim McNeill and safety Thomas Harper.
On the Bears' side, wide receiver Rome Odunze was listed as questionable on Friday as he works his way back from a four-game absence. That said, Chicago may opt to rest him with the playoffs approaching, especially after receiving positive news on rookie receiver Luther Burden, who avoided serious injury following last week's loss to the 49ers.
Bears vs Lions Bets
Best Bet: Bears -2.5 (-120 at Lucky Rebel)
Speaking of last week's 42–38 loss in San Francisco, I believe that game was extremely telling. It's clear the Bears are capable of hanging with any offense in the NFL.
Yes, the 49ers have one of the weaker defenses in the league, but watching this Bears offense go toe-to-toe with one of the most efficient units – led by one of the most intelligent offensive play-callers in football – is something I never thought I'd witness as a lifelong fan.
The culture is changing, and that starts with Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams. Local reporters have mentioned how last week's loss left a sour taste in the players' mouths. While many fans viewed that game as a positive result — proof this team can compete with anyone — the players walked away knowing they could've won, and knowing they should've won.
That frustration matters. This defense will come in ticked off, with a chip on its shoulder, and the entire team should be motivated to close the regular season on a high note, secure the No. 2 seed for better home-field positioning, and exact revenge against a division rival that embarrassed them earlier in the year.
You don't think the Bears have had this game circled on the calendar since Week 2? You don't think Ben Johnson was embarrassed after getting obliterated by his former employer? Of course he was. This one is personal.
The Lions goal this year was Super Bowl or bust – and they don't even have a chance at the postseason. Sure, they can play with pride, but it's not a traditional "spoiler" spot – the Bears are still going to be in the postseason whether or not they win or lose. Detroit is ready for vacation and Chicago will be ready to prove to themselves that they are ready for the postseason.
Detroit entered the season with Super Bowl-or-bust expectations, and now they won't even sniff the postseason. Yes, they can play with pride, but this isn't a traditional spoiler spot. The Bears are headed to the playoffs regardless of the result. Chicago is preparing for something bigger, while Detroit looks ready for vacation.
Sportsbooks are still offering the Bears under the key number of three at -120, and that's how I'm betting this game.
Look for the Bears to put a bow on what's been a magical season, take care of business at home, and cover -2.5 at -120.
Best Bet: Bears -2.5 (-120)
NFL Record: 96-84-1 (+1.76 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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