Chasing Six — NFL Expert Anytime Touchdown Picks & Predictions (9/27)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Sat Sep 26, 2026, 11:03 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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The NFL season already feels like it's moving too fast. We're deep into Week 3 now and teams are finally starting to paint a clearer picture of what this season's going to look like.
I've got three touchdown scorers I'm locked in on this week, let's jump right into them.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Today's Touchdowns
- Tee Higgins Anytime Touchdown (+175)
- Garrett Wilson Anytime Touchdown (+190)
- AJ Barner Anytime Touchdown (+320)
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Tee Higgins Anytime Touchdown (+175)
The Cincinnati Bengals go on the road this week to play their division rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers have looked bad this year and most of those issues come on the offensive side of the ball.
On the flip side, the Bengals look great. Cincinnati's undefeated through two weeks, they put up 33 points the Buccaneers in Week 1 and followed that up with a dominant 20-6 win over the Texans.
Offensively, the Bengals have been good; but they could be a lot better. Joe Burrow's back under center and in his first two games back, he's thrown 461 total yards, he's got 3 touchdown passes and 1 interception.
Burrow's completing 68% of his passes this year and over 40% of those passes go to two guys; Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Higgins leads the team in target share through two games with a 24.2% target share.
Higgins has 154 yards in the Bengals' first two games, he's caught 8 of his 16 targets and only 81% of those targets have been catchable. His average depth of target is 12.4 yards and he's been the Bengals explosive play guy.
The only thing Tee hasn't done yet this year, is score a touchdown. The Steelers pass rush has been elite this year, but their secondary's been vulnerable; outside of Jamel Dean of course.
Dean's going to spend most of the game shadowing Chase and that's why I love Tee to get home in the redzone this week. Tee hasn't seen a single redzone target this year but the Bengals also haven't been in a redzone a lot.
Higgins has also scored a touchdown in 6 of his 10 career games against Pittsburgh and before this year, he had 10 touchdowns in his last 10 games with Burrow. He's due.
Garrett Wilson Anytime Touchdown (+190)
This Detroit Lions defense is bad. The secondary is full of injuries, the pass rush consists of just Aidan Hutchinson and the defense continues to give up a ton of points.
Detroit ranks 30th in points allowed, 30th in opponent redzone efficiency, 32nd in opponent first downs and 31st in opponent passing yards. The team can't stop a single thing and this week they're up a reloaded Jets roster (kind of).
Geno Smith plays in a dome today, so let's start there:
- 17 Indoor Games: 245 PassY/G | 68% | 30 TD | 13 INT | 97.7 QBR
- 53 Outdoor Games: 228 PassY/G | 69% | 65 TD | 39 INT | 92.5 QBR
Geno loves playing indoors and it gets even better when you remove last year and that terrible offensive line. Indoor games behind the Seahawks OL; Geno averaged 287 pass yards per game with 23 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
This Jets offensive line has the highest pass blocking grade (via PFF) and outside of last week's rainy weather; they've done a great job of protecting Geno. Geno's been pressured on just 29% of his dropbacks this year, the 5th lowest rate among starting QBs this year.
Last time he played behind a good offensive line, when kept clean; Geno was completing 76% of his passes with 14 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and a passer rating of 105.2.
All of that to say, I love Garrett Wilson's potential with Geno indoors.
Going back to last year, Wilson is the #1 receiver in fantasy points per route run against man coverage. He's 5th in targets per route run and top 10 in yards per route run. He's a man killer and the Lions have run man at a top-3 rate going back to last season.
AJ Barner Anytime Touchdown (+310)
This one's a little more straight forward. The Washington Commanders are giving up 30.5 points per game through two games, they rank 25th in touchdowns allowed and they're tied for last in touchdowns allowed to the TE position.
The Commanders just gave up 2 touchdowns to Jake Ferguson last week and 2 to Dallas Goedert the week prior. Those are two TEs they see all the time and they had absolutely no answer.
AJ Barner has just 3 targets this year, he's caught all 3 for a total 21 yards through two games and he's got a singular rushing touchdown. Barner is the guy the Seahawks use on the goal line for their version of the 'tush push' and so far Barner's 2/2 on the goal line in his career.
Barner's target share in the redzone with Sam Darnold under center is what's most intriguing to me. Since the start of last year, Barner's seen a 21% target share in the redzone with Darnold under center and he got Barner into the endzone against Washington just last season.
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