Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Bucs Preview & Picks (12/21): Showdown in the South
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Sun Dec 21, 2025, 11:08 am ET
Read Time: 7 minutes
nfl
The two teams atop the NFC South square off this Sunday as the Carolina Panthers host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
This is the first of two divisional meetings between these teams, with a rematch set for Week 18 in Tampa. Which team will take a step forward in the race for the division? Let's break it down with my Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers preview and picks.
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Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Bucs Preview & Picks
Can Baker and the Buccaneers claim the NFC South with a win on Sunday?
Panthers vs Bucs Preview
These teams, this game and this division as a whole are something else. If you've read my work on the Bucs and Panthers, or heard me discuss them on Betting News Network shows, then you're familiar with the amount of disdain and doubt I've had toward them. And why wouldn't I? The NFC South is the only division in football in which every team has a negative point differential.
Point differential per division
NFC West: +287
NFC North: +159
AFC South: +99
AFC East: +44
AFC West: +5
NFC East: -144
AFC North: -204
NFC South: -246— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) December 16, 2025
I've been calling these teams frauds for most of the season, especially the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay became a popular darling to come out of the NFC after making the playoffs last year, with Baker Mayfield appearing to take a step forward in the offense.
I expected them to be competitive, but I never bought into the idea of them representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. It became clear just three games into the season that they were skating by on good fortune. Their first three wins came by scores of 23–20, 20–19, and 29–27 – narrow margins that were clearly unsustainable. That has since proven true, as they've gone 4–7 from that point on.
The Bucs have also dropped their last two games, both at home and both as favorites against division rivals. Tampa Bay laid 8.5 points against Tyler Shough and the Saints and lost 24–20. Then, in primetime on Thursday Night Football, they were laying six points against Kirk Cousins and the Falcons, only to blow a 28–14 fourth-quarter lead and lose outright.
Both were inexcusable losses against teams that were not playing the starting quarterbacks they opened the season with – yet they weren't necessarily surprising.
Since their Week 10 bye, the Buccaneers' defense has fallen to 28th in EPA per play and 26th in success rate allowed. They've been fine against the run, but the real issues have shown up in the secondary.
Tampa Bay ranks 30th in dropback success rate and 29th in dropback EPA, while also sitting 26th in opponent completion percentage (67%) and yards per completion (10.8).
But enough ragging on the Bucs…for now. They're not the only defense that's been disappointing.
Over that same stretch, Carolina has ranked 30th in success rate and 25th in EPA per play allowed. They've been bad just about everywhere. The only reason some of their defensive metrics look respectable in the broader picture is because they've faced a string of below-average offenses.
Now we're seeing the true colors of this Panthers team. It's a squad capable of losing to Tyler Shough and the Saints twice in the span of a month – an outcome that's arguably just as, if not more, inexcusable than Tampa Bay's recent losses.
At this point, these two teams appear to be locked in a race to see who can outdo the other in giving this division away.
So which team will out-stupid the other and shoot itself in the foot on Sunday? Honestly, they might find a way to finish in a tie. Just kidding…kind of.
Here's what I expect to happen in this matchup:
Panthers vs Bucs Picks
Given how poor both defenses have been, we should shift our focus toward the offenses.
That comparison isn't much prettier, as the two units are fairly even there as well. Tampa Bay ranks 21st in EPA per play, while Carolina sits 23rd. In success rate, the Panthers hold a slight edge at 18th, compared to the Bucs at 26th.
To give Baker Mayfield and company a bit of the benefit of the doubt, their offense had been without several key pieces for much of the season. Last week, despite the loss to Atlanta, we saw a revived group. That was largely due to the return of their top receiver Mike Evans, who hauled in six catches for 132 yards on 12 targets in his first game since Week 7.
With the offense back at full strength, Tampa Bay ranked eighth in overall success rate, seventh in rush success rate, and 14th in dropback success rate league-wide in Week 15.
Sure enough, bettors appear to be buying into that performance. The spread opened with Tampa Bay laying 2.5 points and has since been bet up to -3, while the total has dipped slightly from 46 to 45.5.
With a healthy offense, I do believe Baker and the Bucs are the better side. However, with the spread sitting on the key number of three in a road divisional matchup – and paired with an unreliable defense – it's difficult to justify laying the points. I'd much rather take the safer route and tease the Panthers up to more than a touchdown.
Traditionally, when teasing underdogs, you want to do so when they're catching between +1.5 and +2.5, allowing you to cross the key numbers of +3 and +7 on a standard six-point tease. Sure, you could still tease them at +3, but that doesn't fall into the most historically successful teaser range. I expect this number to drop back below -3 at some point, which would then make it a much more valuable spot.
Even if Tampa Bay wins, I'd be shocked if it comes by more than a touchdown. Only two of their victories this season have been by more than one score, and their defense is far too unreliable to expect anything otherwise. The Bucs' red-zone defense ranks second-worst in the NFL, allowing touchdowns on over 72% of opponent trips inside the 20. That number has been even worse over their past three games, jumping to 89%.
Outside of teasing up the Panthers, I also have a play in the prop market.
What's stood out on the Buccaneers' red-zone trips is who's been featured the most – running back Sean Tucker. Despite being listed as the third-string back, Tucker has taken on a significant role near the goal line.
He has scored in each of his last two games and has six rushing touchdowns, along with one receiving, on the season. While his production initially ramped up due to injuries in the backfield, his role near the goal line has remained consistent.
Last week, Tucker led the backfield with three red-zone carries, and there's little reason to expect that approach to change. It's also a favorable matchup against a Panthers run defense allowing 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game, which ranks 26th in the NFL.
Given how poor Carolina's defense has been overall, I expect the Bucs to move the ball consistently and generate numerous red-zone opportunities. Let's take advantage of that by betting Sean Tucker to score a touchdown at +230, banking on him finding the end zone for a third straight game.
Best Bet: Sean Tucker Anytime Touchdown Score (+230)
NFL Record: 84-68-1 (+5.68 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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