Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles Preview & Props (12/28): Hurts So Good?

One of the most anticipated games of the Week 17 slate takes place in upstate New York, where the Buffalo Bills host the Philadelphia Eagles.

Oddsmakers opened Buffalo as 2.5-point favorites with a total of 45. Since then, betting support has come in on Philadelphia, pushing the line down to Bills -1 and the total to 44.

What's at stake for both teams, and how should you approach this matchup from a betting perspective? I'll break it down below with my Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles preview and picks.

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Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles Preview & Props

Can Josh Allen lead the Bills to their fifth-straight win on Sunday against the Eagles?

Bills vs Eagles Playoff Implications

As of Friday evening, the Philadelphia Eagles sit atop the NFC East with a 10-5 record. They clinched their division last Saturday, after they defeated the Washington Commanders, 29-18. 

The only thing left for them to play for is playoff positioning amongst the other division winners. Currently, they're in the third seat, unlikely to move down a spot, but still capable of competing for the second seed. That spot is being held by the Chicago Bears, who have a record of 11-4 and have already beaten the Eagles earlier this season. 

As for Buffalo – they reside in the sixth seed in the AFC, with their 11-4 record. They have the same record as the Los Angeles Chargers, but lose the tie breaker based on win percentage in conference games. 

Los Angeles does play on Saturday, so the Bills will have a better idea of what they're playing for come kickoff on Sunday. But it's not just for overall playoff seeding that Buffalo is still vying for – it's the top spot in the AFC East. The Bills would have to win their next two games, and have the New England Patriots drop one of their next two spots. Though unlikely, given they'll be a sizable favorite in both games – it's still not completely out of the equation that Buffalo could sneak the top spot in their division. 

But, of course – they have to take care of business themselves on Sunday against the defending Super Bowl Champions. 

Buffalo vs Philadelphia Preview 

The Eagles appear to be finding their rhythm at the right time, coming off back-to-back convincing wins. Granted, those victories came against the Las Vegas Raiders (31–0) and the Washington Commanders (29–18), so they aren't exactly needle-movers. Still, they may be enough to get this championship-caliber roster back on track.

Meanwhile, the Bills enter riding a four-game winning streak. Buffalo handled the Steelers in Pittsburgh, 26–7, edged the Bengals at home in a 39–34 shootout, rallied from a 21–0 deficit to beat the Patriots 35–31, and then narrowly escaped Cleveland with a 23–20 win over the Browns. It's been a rollercoaster stretch in the second half of the season, but the Bills have taken full advantage over the past month.

The injury report is lengthy for both sides. For Buffalo, tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid are listed as questionable, while safety Jordan Poyer, kicker Matt Prater, and defensive tackles Jordan Phillips and DaQuan Jones have all been ruled out.

Philadelphia also has notable absences. Linebacker Nakobe Dean and offensive tackle Lane Johnson are both out. Wide receiver A.J. Brown had his wisdom teeth removed this week but is expected to play, as is defensive lineman Jalen Carter, who missed the Eagles' previous three games.

Bills vs Eagles Props

Bet: Jalen Hurts Over 29.5 Rush Yards (-114 at Lucky Rebel)

I find more value in the prop market than in picking a side or total for this matchup. If Buffalo were healthier, I'd expect the Bills to win and would likely look their way. However, the current injury situation makes backing them uncomfortable.

On the other side, while Philadelphia appears to be finding its rhythm, it's important to consider the level of competition behind those recent wins. The Bills present a much more difficult test than the Raiders or Commanders, which keeps me from fully trusting the Eagles as well.

So, instead – I'll look toward the prop market and fade the Bills' vulnerabilities.

The biggest issue for Buffalo this season has been its run defense – and every team in the league knows it. That plays directly into the Eagles' offensive strengths, particularly with Saquon Barkley.

Last year's leading rusher struggled to find consistent production early in the season, but he's turned things around over the past three weeks. Barkley rushed for 122 yards on 20 carries against the Chargers, followed that with 78 yards on 22 attempts versus Las Vegas, and then piled up 132 yards on 21 carries in Washington. He's scored a rushing touchdown in each of those games.

He's in a prime spot to stay productive, considering Buffalo allows the most rushing touchdowns per game (1.6), a number that has climbed to 2.0 over its past three contests. The Bills also surrender the second-most yards per carry at 5.4 – a figure that has jumped to 6.2 over that same span.

With all of that being said – as strong of a matchup as this is for Barkley, I'm actually looking in a slightly different direction. I'll be backing Jalen Hurts over 29.5 rushing yards at -115.

This season, Buffalo ranks 29th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks, giving up 356 total yards – an average of 23.7 per game. That number may not jump off the page, but it's skewed by the fact that many of the quarterbacks the Bills have faced simply don't scramble.

When they've gone up against mobile quarterbacks, the results tell a different story:

• Shedeur Sanders: 4 carries, 49 yards
  
• Drake Maye: 4 carries, 43 yards
  
• Baker Mayfield: 5 carries, 39 yards
  
• Spencer Rattler: 6 carries, 49 yards
  
• Justin Fields: 5 carries, 49 yards
  
• Lamar Jackson: 6 carries, 70 yards

I've been clamoring for this Eagles offense to lean back into its identity, which is the one-two punch of Barkley and Hurts' ground attack – and we've finally seen that over the past two weeks. Both games resulted in wins. Alongside Barkley's surge, Hurts ran for 39 yards on seven attempts against Las Vegas and followed that with 40 yards on seven carries in Washington.

On the season, Hurts is averaging 28 rushing yards per game and has cleared this 29.5-yard mark in eight of 15 games. More notably, he's eclipsed 30 yards in five of his past six outings. Against a weak and banged-up Bills defensive interior, I expect that trend to continue.

Hurts should find opportunities not only on designed runs, but also on broken pass plays. While Buffalo has struggled mightily against the run, its secondary has actually been a strength, ranking top-10 in both dropback EPA and success rate – a setup that could force Hurts to take matters into his own hands on numerous occasions. 

Bet: Jalen Hurts Over 29.5 Rush Yards (-114 at Lucky Rebel)

NFL Record: 92-78-1 (+4.80 units)

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